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Explainer
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The New York Times got the market nuances right in their epic end of year The Real Estate Collapse of 2020.
And including epic charts makes it even better.
I noticed that the Streeteasy median rent chart used in the piece shows the same pattern as my recent chart in Bloomberg. That drop in rent is gigantic.
[Source: Bloomberg – click image to open article]
Tags: New York Times, StreetEasy, Bloomberg News, NYT Real Estate, 2020, Stefanos Chen, Vivian Marino
After the publication of the Elliman Report for Q2-2019 Manhattan Sales, I was asked to join Cheddar anchors Kristen Scholer and Tim Stenovec on the floor of the exchange on Wednesday morning.
When I came through security, the guard at NYSE asked me “when was the last time you visited the NYSE?” and I said, “about 10-12 years ago.” He looked it up to confirm and deadpanned, “I’ll bet you remember that I was the guy that took your picture in 2007, right?!?! He and his colleague and I all had a good hard chuckle over that. Moments like this are what I love so much about my job.
Back in 2007, I was interviewed by Erin Burnett (now CNN) and Mark Haines (sadly passed away in 2011) at CNBC on the balcony overlooking the exchange floor. It was a tight fit on the balcony so I got to sit near the president of the Russian natural gas conglomerate Gazprom and his dozen very large bodyguards. It was very crowded. While he was being interviewed I thought to myself, there is no amount of money in the world I would take to live with that kind of personal risk every single day.
No such worries today. Kristen and Tim were terrific to speak with and I appreciated the invite.
Tags: Bloomberg TV, CNBC, Cheddar, NYSE, Kristen Scholer, Tim Stenovec, Erin Burnett
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TV, Videos
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Diana Olick at CNBC reached out to me this week to talk about the Q1-2019 Elliman Report on the Greenwich, CT housing market (as well as Q1-2019 Fairfield County, CT) and the impact of the federal tax law on high-end suburban markets in NYC metro.
We spoke on Greenwich Avenue in Greenwich at 8:30 am and had to keep doing segments over because of the random roars of delivery and garbage trucks. The irony was not lost on me – a busy downtown with not a lot of empty parking spaces so early in the morning – combined with a slow housing market. Anecdotal but this is what we are seeing at the macro level – a robust regional economy with soft housing conditions.
We were set up in front of a Vineyard Vines store while I was wearing a bright Ted Baker tie (Hey, I can be a social media style influencer too). The irony in this product placement “ties” this story altogether (in my own mind). I received more feedback about my tie than I did on my content. Oh well. And for the record, Diana made very clear to me that she commented on my tie first.
Here’s the segment that also includes my friend Jennifer Leahy of Douglas Elliman, their number one agent in Connecticut who just sold the massively oversized home of 50 Cent.
New tax laws take a toll on home sales in Connecticut from CNBC.
Tags: Diana Olick, CNBC, Greenwich CT, Tax Cut and Jobs Act of 2017, Jennifer Leahy, Squawk Alley
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TV, Videos
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For the record, this is the first time I recall using the word “cognizant” on national television. A personal lexicon triumph.
There has been a lot of fanfare about the new Related Companies ‘Hudson Yards‘ mixed-use development being created over the West Side Yard in Manhattan and is connected to ‘The Highline.‘ The centerpiece or “hook” is a $2 billion mall in the middle of the complex. While ‘malls’ are generally a non-starter in Manhattan, there is a successful precedent. The same developer built Time Warner Center at Columbus Circle (southwest corner of Central Park) nearly twenty years ago and it was considered a significant success. I used to live two blocks to the west of Time Warner Center and it was a pretty rough area at the time but that submarket has been significantly upgraded.
Related has pushed out a media blitz on the mall opening this week. It is important to note that NYC gave Hudson Yards more tax breaks than were proposed for Amazon in Long Island City. However, as Barry Ritholtz writes in his excellent comparison between the two deals (LIC v. Hudson Yards) offered by the city. Related seemed to do this deal right and Amazon came across as greedy in the end.
The $3.4 billion dollars committed to parks, subways, etc. in the Hudson Yard project is exactly what the government is supposed to do. You can create incentives for companies to relocate in a way that directly benefits every taxpayer in the region. The incoming company could have burnished their reputation as a good corporate citizen, instead of being perceived as rapacious and greedy.
Here is a rendering of the completed Hudson Yards. I think it looks spectacular. And don’t forget ‘The Vessel.‘
[Source: DeZeen]
Teachable moment for condo development naming strategies that include a company: Don’t do it.
The Time Warner precedent-setting mall scenario included a condo offering plan circa 2000 named “AOL Time Warner Center” and then the project was renamed “Time Warner Center” after they sold off AOL (Someone named Jonathan Miller took over AOL strangely enough). Deutsche Bank is replacing Warner Media as the anchor tenant in 2021 so the project will be renamed for the new tenant. However, Deutsche Bank has been having its share of financial problems and is considering a merger with Commerzbank. Uh-oh.
Perhaps that’s why Related went with ‘Hudson Yards.’ 😉
Tags: Bloomberg TV, Vonnie Quinn, Barry Ritholtz, The Related Group, Hudson Yards, Bloomberg Markets, Guy Johnson, Time Warner, Deutsche Bank
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TV, Videos
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I’m a bit late to post this interview but the content is still relevant since it addresses the sales slowdown we are seeing across the NYC metro area. I had a fun conversation with Bloomberg’s Julie Hyman and Julia Chatterley on “Bloomberg Markets.”
Tags: Bloomberg TV, Manhattan, Elliman Report, Julia Chatterley, Julie Hyman, Bloomberg Markets
Bloomberg maintains 6 quarterly charts on their terminals covering the Manhattan luxury sales and rental results we compile. I periodically throw these charts on this Matrix Blog only because I find myself asking…how cool is that?
Manhattan Luxury Average Sales Price
Manhattan Luxury Average Sales Price Per Sq Ft
Manhattan Luxury Median Sales Price
Manhattan Luxury Average Rental Price
Manhattan Luxury Average Rental Price Per Sq Ft
Manhattan Luxury Median Rental Price
Tags: Bloomberg Terminals, Luxury Market Charts
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Charts
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The New York Times created another super cool graphic in their new Calculator column, based on my idea. In the fall of 2015 I observed a massive surge of sales in Westchester County (north of NYC for those not familiar with our area). However median sales price was nearly flat during this period. This was phenomenon repeated in all of the counties that surround NYC – except for NJ since I don’t cover that market yet but anecdotally I believe the same phenomenon is occurring there. I believe this moment was the point where the affordability challenge became so severe that renters and move up buyers had to move out of the city.
Specifically, Brooklyn showed a surge in median sales price from 2009 with a modest growth in sales. Westchester reflected the opposite patterns of Brooklyn. Westchester county sales boomed over the same period while the growth in median sales price was much more tepid.
Below is the NYT graphic for the suburban sales boom article.
Tags: Calculator, NYT Real Estate, Michael Kolomatsky, monopoly
[click to expand]
Thoughts The co-op and condo market absorption rates for the $10 million+ market have slowed over the past year while the pace of the sub-$3 million remains extremely brisk. The $3 million to $10 million shows limited change and some stabilization.
Side by side Manhattan regional comparison:
[click images to expand]
I started this analysis in August 2009 so I am able to show side-by side year-over-year comparisons. (I got tired of the red/gray look in 2014 so I changed it) The blue/red line shows the 10-year quarterly average for context. The pink/orange line represents the overall average absorption rate of the most recently completed month for that market area.
Definition Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart is: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the current annualized pace of sales activity in our market report series.
Manhattan Market Absorption Charts [Miller Samuel]
Tags: Inventory, Absorption, number of sales
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Radio
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I was set to speak in studio with Tom Keene and Pimm Fox but had a commuting snafu and had to call in. It was a great opportunity to show a picture of me as a 15 year old. Love these guys. The best. The Bloomberg Television/Radio are clearly pros and handled the last minute change with ease.
We talked about lots of housing markets and the distortion being created by credit conditions.
Tags: Tom Keene, Pimm Fox, Bloomberg TV, Bloomberg Surveillance, Bloomberg Radio, fundamentals, healthy
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Charts
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It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.
Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedNY:
It’s been a while since I dropped in on Curbed with a Three Cents Worth post but since I’m currently huddled next to an air conditioner, I really needed to take my mind off the heat and humidity. I thought I’d reach back into history and trend the year-over-year changes in the Manhattan sales and rental markets. I presented the median rental price and median sales prices by quarter back to 1991 measuring their year over year percent change. I’m surprised I haven’t done this before since there is so much discussion about the relationship between the two markets, and whether it’s better to rent or buy…
[click to expand chart]
My latest Three Cents Worth column: Three Cents Worth: Tracking 24 Years of Manhattan Sales and Rental Prices [Curbed]
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Hamptons
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed LA
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Ski
Tags: Three Cents Worth, Curbed NY, 3CW, median sales price, median rental price, housing bubble, year-over-year, dot-com
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Douglas Elliman published our research today covering Queens sales, Brooklyn sales Westchester/Putnam sales as well as the rental market for Manhattan Brooklyn & Queens. You can download the reports and more at Douglas Elliman’s market report page.
Like last week’s Manhattan report, there were lots of records set and it wasn’t simply the influence of high end sales – prices were up across the board in most markets.
Incidentally, the Bloomberg News article that covered record Queens condo sales was the second most emailed story world-wide. It stoked more interest than the finance crisis in Greece and the recent Chinese stock market gyrations. Apparently only “investors with satellites” was a more popular read.
Idea (?) for next quarter: Talk about drones and investors in the Queens housing market.
Tags: Greece, most emailed, Chinese stock market
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Charts
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Read my latest Bloomberg View column Want a House? Good Luck With the Down Payment. This post also went #1 on the Bloomberg Terminal and on the public facing BloombergView.com site for 2 days. Super crazy.
Here’s an excerpt…
Saving for a down payment has long been a big challenge for anyone who wants to buy a home. And it got harder after the financial crisis, as lenders insisted on down payments of 20 percent or more for conventional mortgages, which make up the bulk of the market…
My Bloomberg View Column Directory
My Bloomberg View RSS feed.
Tags: downloads, coventional, Mortgage
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Jonathan Miller is President and CEO of Miller Samuel Inc., a real estate appraisal and consulting firm he co-founded in 1986. He is a state-certified real estate appraiser in New York and Connecticut, performing court testimony as an expert witness in various local, state, and federal courts. He holds the Counselors of Real Estate (CRE) designation, is an Appraiser “A” Member of the Real Estate Board of New York, and is a member of RAC.
Learn More...
You'll be able to choose from an array of robust housing metrics compiled using research developed during the preparation of our market report series. Expanded significantly from prior offerings, use this resource to build charts and custom data tables or leverage your own information for more powerful research and presentations.
In the meantime, here is a small sample of the aggregated data we will provide.
Forbes ('20-)
Appraisersblogs ('17-)
'Three Cents Worth' column 3CW ('05-'16)
When Curbed was acquired by Vox, my eleven years of 3CW chart art and column links were broken on Curbed NY, Curbed DC, Curbed Miami, Curbed Hamptons, Curbed LA, and Curbed Ski.
Many of my 3CW charts can be found here:
Curbed 3CW Full Chart Archive
Op-ed column ('14-'15)
'Economic Spotlight column ('03-'09)
New York Times experiment ('08-09')
Huffington Post (09')
Favorite "How to Value" Posts
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