Matrix Blog

Rentals, Investing

Bloomberg TV – Yes. We Are In A Housing Crisis

November 17, 2023 | 9:17 pm | | TV, Videos |

I got to join the gang at Bloomberg Surveillance on Tuesday morning. Always fun and smart. The focus seems to be figuring out what the exit of this era of tight housing inventory looks like and when rents will come down since inflation is tangibly falling.

My journey to the city for the Bloomberg interview: catching the 5:49 am train – waiting in the green room – and working my way up the guest list to go on. 

Lisa Abramowicz pens a recap of her show’s morning guests covering inflation (which guides fed policy), which is really worth a read: Surveillance: Wall Street Exults ‘We’re Going to Win This Thing’

Wait for my complaint/joke at the end with Tom. Fun.

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Peak Suburb Has Passed

December 28, 2020 | 2:22 pm | | Explainer |

The New York Times got the market nuances right in their epic end of year The Real Estate Collapse of 2020.

And including epic charts makes it even better.


I noticed that the Streeteasy median rent chart used in the piece shows the same pattern as my recent chart in Bloomberg. That drop in rent is gigantic.



[Source: Bloomberg – click image to open article]

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NYT Real Estate: Signs of a Manhattan Rental Market Recovery

November 21, 2020 | 12:49 pm | | Charts |

This weekend’s New York Times Real Estate Calculator column provides a visualization of the recent rental market results in The Elliman Report: October 2020 Manhattan, Brooklyn & Queens Rentals

The Manhattan changes were the most interesting to me – record highs set for the vacancy rate, concession market share, concession amount, yoy% change in median net effective rent overall, studio, 1-bed, & 2-beds. Yet we saw for the first time in fourteen months, a jump in YOY% new lease signings and the highest October new lease signing total on record.

The significantly weaker rental market final hit a point that caused demand to begin to flood back into the market.


[click to open article]

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Bloomberg Markets TV: December 18, 2018, Amazon HQ2

December 18, 2018 | 3:08 pm | | TV, Videos |

As always, I had a wonderful conversion with Vonnie Quinn, anchor of Bloomberg TV’s Markets today. It was a long interview where we discussed national and NYC metric trends. The following portion covered the Amazon HQ2 story in Long Island City, NY.

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Our Manhattan Luxury Housing Price Indices on Bloomberg Terminals

March 4, 2017 | 10:03 pm | Charts |

Bloomberg maintains 6 quarterly charts on their terminals covering the Manhattan luxury sales and rental results we compile.  I periodically throw these charts on this Matrix Blog only because I find myself asking…how cool is that?

Manhattan Luxury Average Sales Price

Manhattan Luxury Average Sales Price Per Sq Ft

Manhattan Luxury Median Sales Price

Manhattan Luxury Average Rental Price

Manhattan Luxury Average Rental Price Per Sq Ft

Manhattan Luxury Median Rental Price

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NYT v. WSJ Smogdown: Status of Chinese Investment in U.S. Real Estate

December 1, 2015 | 11:39 am | | Favorites |

lianyungangchinaSmogYahoo
[Source: Yahoo News]

Last weekend I read two terrific articles on Chinese real estate investment in the U.S. but they seemed seemed to conflict – check out the headlines:

New York Times Chinese Cash Floods U.S. Real Estate Market

Wall Street Journal Chinese Pull Back From U.S. Property Investments The subtitle says it all – The nation’s economic and stock-market slump puts buyers on the sidelines

Are the Chinese flooding the U.S. market now or are they pulling back? Which is it? Or is it both?

In my recent trip to Shanghai, I spoke to and interviewed many, many real estate investors at The Real Deal Forum. I got the impression that investment has pulled back a bit in 2015 but expectations were high that investment would expand again, although not to the level of the past 5 years. Of course I was doing this in a biased environment – at in investor conference. I was consistently told that government efforts to prop up the stock market spooked much of the smart money out of the market since the actions were taken to calm everyday investors.

The New York Times piece seemed prompted by a P.R. pitch from the Chinese developer for their Dallas suburb project enticed with a suburban angle. It was a refreshing angle since Chinese real estate investment in the U.S. has been an urban narrative and specifically focused on the high end. The article illustrated just how massive the investment patterns have been. To date the narrative has been focused on super luxury condos in expensive metropolitan areas, while the suburbs got limited attention.

NAR2015internationalCHINESEnyt

The WSJ article is more orientated towards the past few weeks while the NYT article is a longer term view. Both publications place emphasis on NAR’s Profile of International Home Buying Activity whose results emphasized the Chinese investment surge of the previous year. The survey results only reflect the market through last March, so it is 9 months behind the current market. The Chinese investment numbers are staggering, and they are probably understated. Since the NAR report is simply a survey of it’s members and NAR has limited exposure to New York City, especially Manhattan – a hotbed of Chinese real estate investment activity.

NAR2015internationalCHINESEwsj

Incidentally, do the above 2 charts look similar? They both relied on the NAR report.

The NYT piece set the table on the entire multi-year phenomenon using a ton of cool charts while the WSJ attempted to illustrate the change in recent weeks Both outlets were forced to rely on a lot of anecdotal to make their case. Both articles are consistent with my views as each provided a different context.

The NYT piece provided the long term historical view and the WSJ was a short term snapshot.

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[VIDEO] Boomberg Radio/TV ‘Surveillance’ 9-21-15

September 21, 2015 | 11:45 am | | Radio |

I was set to speak in studio with Tom Keene and Pimm Fox but had a commuting snafu and had to call in. It was a great opportunity to show a picture of me as a 15 year old. Love these guys. The best. The Bloomberg Television/Radio are clearly pros and handled the last minute change with ease.

We talked about lots of housing markets and the distortion being created by credit conditions.

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[Three Cents Worth #290 NY] Tracking 24 Years of Manhattan Sales and Rental Prices

August 23, 2015 | 6:09 pm | | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

It’s been a while since I dropped in on Curbed with a Three Cents Worth post but since I’m currently huddled next to an air conditioner, I really needed to take my mind off the heat and humidity. I thought I’d reach back into history and trend the year-over-year changes in the Manhattan sales and rental markets. I presented the median rental price and median sales prices by quarter back to 1991 measuring their year over year percent change. I’m surprised I haven’t done this before since there is so much discussion about the relationship between the two markets, and whether it’s better to rent or buy…

3cw8-19-2015

[click to expand chart]


My latest Three Cents Worth column: Three Cents Worth: Tracking 24 Years of Manhattan Sales and Rental Prices [Curbed]

Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Hamptons
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed LA
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Ski

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Record Queens Condo Prices: Bigger Than Crises in Greece, China

July 9, 2015 | 9:51 pm | |

Rental_0615Douglas Elliman published our research today covering Queens sales, Brooklyn sales Westchester/Putnam sales as well as the rental market for Manhattan Brooklyn & Queens. You can download the reports and more at Douglas Elliman’s market report page.

Like last week’s Manhattan report, there were lots of records set and it wasn’t simply the influence of high end sales – prices were up across the board in most markets.

Incidentally, the Bloomberg News article that covered record Queens condo sales was the second most emailed story world-wide. It stoked more interest than the finance crisis in Greece and the recent Chinese stock market gyrations. Apparently only “investors with satellites” was a more popular read.

Idea (?) for next quarter: Talk about drones and investors in the Queens housing market.

2q15queensrptBLOOMBERGTERMINALS

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Knight Frank: Moscow Rents Dropped 42% YoY in US Dollars

July 6, 2015 | 2:40 pm | | Reports |

Knight Frank just published their 1Q 2015 Prime Global Rental Index. We provide the U.S. info. Always a fascinating read.

Especially this:

In Moscow, prime rents have historically been US Dollar denominated but the weakness of the Rouble against the US Dollar has led an increasing number of landlords to swap their rents into Roubles. In US Dollar terms prime rents fell 42% on an annual basis but by only 5% in Rouble terms.

Here are the world rankings:

KFPGRI1q15table

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[Three Cents Worth #289 NY] Proof: Summer Is the Hardest Time to Rent in New York City

June 25, 2015 | 11:07 pm | |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

This week I thought I’d dig out some of the residual stuff from last week’s rental report to explore the vacancy hyperbole. As far as I know, firms that present the vacancy rate (including mine) use a sampling of buildings from different neighborhoods/regions of Manhattan where building rental status is continually updated. The bottom line—and a reality check—is that the vacancy rate has always been low. It’s remained below 5 percent since at least World War II. (At least that’s what I’ve read; I only started writing for Curbed circa 2004.)…

3cwNY2015-6-17

[click to expand charts]


My latest Three Cents Worth column: Three Cents Worth: Proof: Summer Is the Hardest Time to Rent in New York City [Curbed]

Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY

Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC

Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami

Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Hamptons

Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed LA

Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Ski

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Bloomberg View Column: Costly City Housing Is an Economic Drag

June 3, 2015 | 6:12 pm | | Charts |

BVlogo

Read my latest Bloomberg View column Costly City Housing Is an Economic Drag.

bv6-2-14a

bv6-2-14b

Here’s an excerpt…

It’s tough living in a big city — the people, the traffic, the noise. Oh, and did we mention the cost of housing? Contrary to conventional wisdom, high and rising housing costs in the U.S.’s biggest cities are not ideal for an economic recovery. Just the opposite: When housing costs take a big bite out of incomes, it diverts money that could be spent on local goods and services or invested in new businesses that stimulate growth…

[read more]


My Bloomberg View Column Directory

My Bloomberg View RSS feed.

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