Matrix Blog

One of the problems with my normally preferred year-over-year comparisons with metrics to diffuse seasonal impact is that the year-ago period happened to be the pandemic lockdown.

I went through the region using our market report series for Douglas Elliman, comparing the same period two years ago to capture the pre-COV ID market and prices. and sales are up with the exception of Manhattan and North Fork. Listing inventory is up slightly within the city boroughs and plunged in the suburbs.

Tags: Elliman Report, Douglas Elliman

Comments Off on NYC Metro Conditions Much More Robust Than Two Years Ago

I had a fun conversation with Faith Jessie, journalist and anchor at Newsday, Maura McDermott, the real estate writer at Newsday, and Monica Balsan at Daniel Gale Sotheby’s International Realty. My housing data came from our Elliman Report: Long Island Sales series I author for Douglas Elliman.

The interview was placed on Newsday’s home page, which was pretty cool.

Newsday Live: Hot Tips For a Hot Market: For Sellers

Newsday is the largest news publication for Long Island, New York.

Tags: Elliman Report, Douglas Elliman, Long Island, Newsday, Maura McDermott, Monica Balsan, Daniel Gale Sotheby's International Realty

Comments Off on TV: Newsday Live: Hot Tips For a Hot Market: For Sellers

The New York Times got the market nuances right in their epic end of year The Real Estate Collapse of 2020.

And including epic charts makes it even better.

I noticed that the Streeteasy median rent chart used in the piece shows the same pattern as my recent chart in Bloomberg. That drop in rent is gigantic.

[Source: Bloomberg – click image to open article]

Tags: New York Times, StreetEasy, Bloomberg News, NYT Real Estate, 2020, Stefanos Chen, Vivian Marino

Comments Off on Peak Suburb Has Passed

I recently completed a quick interview with Stuart Elliott, Editor In Chief & CEO at The Real Deal who asked me questions with a uniquely mellow intensity. The Real Deal is required reading for anyone in the real estate profession or interested in real estate. Fun.

Tags: The Real Deal, Stuart Elliot, Youtube, Quick Question

Comments Off on TRD Quick Question: Jonathan Miller “What’s Happening in the NYC Real Estate Market?”

A few days ago I was interviewed by Christopher Eshleman at the Port Authority of New York & New Jersey. He works for Alexander Heil who is the chief economist and publishes a lot of great regional economic insights. Although this is a new effort, this was their first podcast conducted outside of the institution so I am deeply appreciative of the opportunity to share my views.

Christopher is a sharp guy and kept the conversation interesting (I even inserted a Jerry Seinfeld joke). It’s about a half an hour.

Check it out.

Tags: Podcast, Christopher Eshleman, Alexander Heil, transportation, Port Authority of New York & New Jersey

Comments Off on Podcast: My Port Authority of NY & NJ Interview on Regional Housing Market

A while back, I was invited by the Long Island Chapter of the Appraisal Institute to keynote for their winter dinner/seminar tonight in Westbury, Long Island:

LI Housing Market: Transitioning from “Recovery” to “Recovered”

It’ll be great to catch up with my friends and colleagues and I always love to talk appraisalspeak for extended periods of time.

The presentation will cover (2 CE credits):

Long Island Market Reports, Key Trends, Drivers of the Current Residential Market, Fiscal Cliff, Pent-Up Demand, Record Low Inventory, Mortgage Rates, Federal Reserve, Transitioning to a Sustainable Long Term Housing Market Recovery

In a question and answer period, discussion will include Snapshot of the Long Island Housing market, including 4Q 2013 market research results in Long Island, Hamptons and the North Fork; Affordability, What is driving Sales Activity?; The relationship between Sales and Prices – Why is inventory low?; Spike in Mortgage Rates; Federal Reserve taper miscommunication; Why are Housing Prices Rising?; Long Island and Manhattan real estate economy, Credit Issues, Lending, Market Trends, Impacts, and Challenges in Year 2014.

The latest Nor’easter is supposed to start at about 2AM so it looks like we’ll get this done just under the wire!

Tags: Appraisal Institute, AI Long Island Chapter, Keynote, appraisalspeak

Comments Off on [Pre-Nor’easter Keynote] Long Island Housing Market: Transitioning from “Recovery” to “Recovered”

This week marked the end of what I call the “quarterly gauntlet” market report releases that I author for Douglas Elliman. If you’re interested, we’ve analyzed a bunch of markets:

NYC Metro Area
– Manhattan Sales
– Manhattan & Brooklyn Rentals
– Brooklyn Sales
– Queens Sales
– Westchester/Putnam Sales
– Long Island Sales
– Hamptons Sales
– North Fork Sales

South Florida
– Miami Sales
– Boca Raton Sales
– Fort Lauderdale Sales
– Palm Beach Sales

I’ve been writing this expanding report series for Douglas Elliman since 1994. You can also build custom data tables on information included in the reports using our aggregate database and a growing library of market charts.

Comments Off on 3Q 2013 Market Report Gauntlet Comes to a Close

We published our report on the Long Island sales market for 2Q 2013.

This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

• Fastest market pace since 2005 with absorption rate at 9.3 months.
  
• Inventory fell sharply as closed sales and pending sales jumped.
  
• Housing prices edged higher.
  
• Tight credit continued to keep inventory off market.
  
• Concern about rising mortgage rates pushed more buyers into the market.
  
  

Here’s an excerpt from the 2Q 2013 report:

…Although the pace of the Long Island market has been accelerating with more sales and less supply, prices continue to see only modest gains from the prior year levels. There were 16,300 listings in total inventory at the end of the second quarter, 17.5% less than in the same period last year. However, new inventory added to the market expanded by 8.7% to 12,292 over the same period, possibly providing some relief to homebuyers in the coming quarters…

You can build your own custom data tables on the market – now updated with 2Q 13 data. Check out the charts by browsing in our chart library.

The Elliman Report: 2Q 2013 Long Island Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 2Q 2013 Long Island Sales [Douglas Elliman]
Market Chart Library [Miller Samuel]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]

Tags: Absorption

Comments Off on [Fast Pace] 2Q 2013 Long Island Sales Report

We published our report on the Long Island sales market for 1Q 2013.

This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

1Q 2013

• Lowest first quarter listing total in a decade.
  
• Signed contract volume jumped from year ago levels.
  
• Housing prices remained generally stable, indicators mixed.
  
• Limited supply beginning to apply upward pressure to stable markets.
  
• Credit remains tight, restraining supply from entering market, no urgency to list.
  
• Record low mortgage rates and release of pent-up demand keeping demand strong.
  
• Less high end sales as tax-incentivized buyers rushed to close at the end of 2012.
  
  

Here’s an excerpt from the 1Q 2013 report:

…The lack of supply and rise of contract activity continued to define the Long Island housing market. Listing inventory fell to the lowest first quarter level seen in a decade as pending sales continued to rise. Despite the tightening of the market, overall price indicators remained mixed. The number of listings in inventory at the end of the first quarter fell 24.8% to 15,303 as compared to the same period last year, a ten year first quarter low…

You can build your own custom data tables on the market – now updated with 1Q 13 data. Check out the charts by browsing in our chart library.

The Elliman Report: 1Q 2013 Long Island Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 1Q 2013 Long Island Sales [Douglas Elliman]
Market Chart Library [Miller Samuel]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]

Comments Off on [Defined by Low Supply] 1Q 2013 Long Island Sales Report

[click to open reports]

We published our report on the Long Island sales market for 4Q 2012. Since this was the final quarter of 2012, we also released our Long Island Decade report, a ten year moving window data compendium of the Long Island market from 2003-2012

This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

4Q 2012

• Lowest fourth quarter inventory level in 8 years, down 21% from a year ago.
  
• Year end rising momentum in sales as pending sales outpaced closed sales.
  
• Price indicators were up across-the-board from a year ago.
  
• Credit remains tight as economy slowly improves.
  
• Inventory falling – low to negative equity, no urgency to list.
  
• Sales rising as record low mortgage rates create demand.
  
• A release in pent-up demand from election year and “fiscal cliff” concerns over rising taxes.
  

2003-2012

• Sales increased for first time since 2006.
  
• Median sales price up 3.2% over decade.
  
• Market peak in price was 2006, same as the US housing market.
  
• Housing prices have shown stability for 3 years.
  

Here’s an excerpt from the 4Q 2012 report:

…Long Island, like much of the greater New York region, is experiencing a chronic short of listing inventory. Steadily declining over the past several years, Long Island listing inventory reached an 8-year low in the fourth quarter. The large year-over-year drop in supply was met with an increased level of sales activity, both in terms of signed contracts and closed sales…

You can build your own custom data tables on the market – now updated with 4Q 12 and annual 2003-2012 data. I’ll post the updated charts soon. In the meantime you can browse our chart library.

The Elliman Report: 4Q 2012 Long Island Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 2003-2012 Long Island Decade [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 4Q 2012 Long Island Sales [Douglas Elliman]
The Elliman Report: 2003-2012 Long Island Decade [Douglas Elliman]
Market Chart Library [Miller Samuel]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]

Comments Off on [Turning Corner?] 4Q 2012 + 2003-2012 Long Island Decade Reports

We published our report on the Long Island sales market for 3Q 2012.   This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

Long Island

-Housing prices generally stable
-Listing inventory continues to fall sharply
-Pending sales outpaced closed sales reflecting a late season rise in activity
-Despite tight credit, record low mortgage rates are pulling more people into the market.





Here’s an excerpt from the report:

…The pace of the Long Island housing market has been accelerating. The rise in sales and sharp decline in available inventory resulted in the fastest absorption rate in nearly six years. Contract signings rose faster than the pace of closings on both a quarterly and year-to-date basis. Median sales price was $365,000, unchanged from the prior year quarter. Average sales price saw a nominal 0.8% slip from $457,496 to $454,037 over the same period. The second, third, and fourth quintiles saw no or nominal changes in median sales price compared to the prior year quarter, while the first and fifth quintiles declined 2.2% and 2.9% respectively over the same period. There were 5,638 sales in the third quarter, 9.7% above 5,141 sales in the same period last year. Pending sales saw a larger gain over the same period, rising 12.9% to 5,436 from 4,813. Year-to-date, these metrics showed a similar pattern, reflecting the expanding activity levels later in the year…

You can build your own custom data tables on the market – now updated with 3Q 12 data. I’ll post the updated 3Q12 charts soon. In the meantime you can browse our chart library.

The Elliman Report: 3Q 2012 Long Island Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 3Q 2012 Long Island Sales [Prudential Douglas Elliman]
Market Chart Library [Miller Samuel]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]

Tags: Absorption

Comments Off on [More Activity, Later] 3Q 2012 Long Island Report

We published our report on the Long Island sales market for 2Q 2012.   This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

Long Island

-Despite the warm winter and early start of the spring market, second quarter sales were up 8.9% over last year.
-Pending sales were up 6.4% above year ago levels.
-Median sales price was unchanged from prior and year ago quarters.
-Listing inventory fell 13.2% to a seven year low for the second quarter.
-Negotiability between buyer and seller and days on market remained stable.
-Falling mortgage rates driving demand, despite tight mortgage lending conditions.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

…The Long Island spring housing market was characterized by stable prices, falling inventory and rising sales activity. This occurred despite some of the tightest mortgage lending conditions in years, as well as elevated unemployment levels and a weak, but slowly improving, regional economy. There were 4,581 sales, 8.9% more than 4,205 in the prior year quarter. Pending sales showed a similar pattern, despite an unusually robust prior quarter, which was attributable to the atypically warm winter…

You can build your own custom data tables on the market – now updated with 2Q 12 data. You can browse our chart library for the latest – updated for 2Q 2012.

The Elliman Report: 2Q 2012 Long Island Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 2Q 2012 Long Island Sales [Prudential Douglas Elliman]
Market Chart Library [Miller Samuel]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]

Comments Off on [Better Than Before] 2Q 2012 Long Island Report