Matrix Blog

On Friday morning, I was one of five expert witnesses (and the only as an appraiser) to testify on the topic of appraisal bias in front of the Appraisal Subcommittee (ASC). The witnesses waited together in the green room, plus additional The Appraisal Foundation (TAF) staff. We had a delightful conversation – everyone was very friendly and a pleasure to be with, given the adversarial nature of our looming testimony.

I’ve spoken many hundreds of times on national television but never on C-SPAN, so participating in this event was a bucket list check-off for me. The FHFA auditorium and facilities were impressive – the organization of the event was first class and ran very smoothly (way to go, Julie!).

During the first hour of testimony, our fourth grandchild was born. My wife was in the audience and stepped out of the hearing (the nerve!) to take the call from my oldest son on the news of our new granddaughter.

The Appraisal Subcommittee (ASC) held a second hearing on challenges facing the appraisal industry, including barriers to entering the profession and racial bias in home appraisals. The panel’s first hearing on such topics occurred in January. The ASC is an interagency committee under the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council and oversees real estate appraisal regulations. The Federal Housing Finance Agency hosted the event at its headquarters in Washington, DC.

It’s a three-hour hearing, but if you are connected to the appraisal industry in any way, I encourage you to listen. You can hear my opening statement at about the 26-minute mark. The text on the C-SPAN website was generated from unedited closed captions. Here was my formal statement, but since the timing was strictly limited to 5 minutes, I read this abbreviated version, which in hindsight, was better and more to the point.

Federal Housing Finance Agency (@FHFA) hearing on Appraisal Industry Issues – LIVE at 10 am ET on C-SPAN https://t.co/uyAqNgs1tk

— CSPAN (@cspan) May 19, 2023,

Afterwards…

Three regulators from the ASC came to me from the stage immediately afterward and said I was the best dressed in the room, and they loved my tie. I wasn’t expecting that. Ha. All were very nice. My wife and I immediately shared pictures of our new granddaughter.

Thoughts…

Morgan Williams, General Counsel, National Fair Housing Alliance – He was a compelling witness – he drove home that he wanted access to anonymized loan-level data to determine the potential valuation bias.

Angela G. Jemmott, Bureau Chief, California Bureau of Real Estate Appraisers, Member of the Association of Appraiser Regulatory Officials. She was a powerhouse of testimony, advocating practicum solutions in addition to PAREA.

Michelle Czekalski Bradley, Certified General Appraiser, Chair of the Appraisal Standards Board (ASB) of TAF, was earnest and towed the Dave Bunton narrative. When the CFPB head went after her for the conflict of interest of her position, she named me by name (an unforced error) and said there was no conflict. She may believe that with all her heart, but most of her peers in the industry think otherwise. Her husband is a senior official at McKissock, the largest provider of online appraisal courses, and they have a financial arrangement with TAF on USPAP courses – and Michelle heads the board that makes changes to USPAP. This is another example of the stunning lack of oversight for this not-for-profit (TAF) that modifies USPAP that becomes embedded into laws in the 50 states and five territories. I’m sure she means well and, in her mind, is giving back to the industry, but she is remarkably oblivious to the optics of her position. I believe Dave Bunton hand-selected her for her ability to follow orders. TAF is a monarchy, nothing less.

Brad Swinney, Chief Appraiser, Farm Credit Bank of Texas, Chair of the Appraiser Qualifications Board (AQB), had a hard time presenting and defending PAREA. He, like Michelle, was hand selected by Dave Bunton after the prior AQB chair was removed immediately because he wanted to explore the stunning lack of diversity in the appraisal profession. (We’re 98% white and dead last (400 of 400) as tracked by the BLS). So it follows that if the prior chair was removed immediately after trying to dig into the appraisal industry’s lack of diversity, then it’s just a hop, skip, and jump to assume that Brad was brought in to follow Dave Bunton’s position of staying away from the topic. Brad mentioned several times that “someone” (me) was saying 1,500 hours of experience were required, yet he stated only 1,000 hours were required for residential certification experience. As the AQB chair, he was uninformed. I was referring to the New York State requirement for 1,500 hours as a New York City appraiser, as noted on the New York State website.

I’m glad we’ve cleared that up.

TAF’s representatives (Michelle & Brad) were under siege by the ASC board and did not do well under fire. They found themselves wiggling to defend the indefensible even though they were hand-picked by Dave Bunton for their ability to toe the party line. Both tried hard to frame themselves in a silo – Michelle – when it came to how board members were selected and Brad – how they had no responsibility for how much PAREA would cost appraisers. To be clear, TAF had always pushed back hard on PAREA until Dave realized that it could be used to divert attention from, and possibly have a positive influence, on our industry’s stunning lack of diversity.

When I was highly critical of the two-year cycle in my testimony and how TAF goes back and forth on rules that confuse everyone, Michelle brought up the current four-year run of USPAP without changes and how on January 1st, there will not be an expiration date. The problem with framing it that way was that TAF claimed USPAP was frozen for four years because of COVID. Dave saw the pressure coming for change and used COVID as an excuse, yet the reality was that Zoom became ubiquitous, and there was no reason to stop the cycle other than to use COVID to save face. Dave recently realized that because states required USPAP 7-hour update courses every two years, they were still going to benefit from a revenue flow from the classes and could still avoid grant money from the ASC so they wouldn’t have any “strings” attached to their actions. Dave can still fly all over the world on boondoggles to valuation conferences, dining on steak and fine wine without scrutiny. I brought up in my testimony that only about 15 minutes of each 7-hour update class contained new information.

To be clear, only one person of color has been on a technical board (ASB + AQB) in the 3+ decade history of The Appraisal Foundation, which has been led by the same person the entire time. And that one person, despite being highly qualified, was only accepted on the board because of significant outside pressure from myself and a handful of others. Proof of this is that no more persons of color were invited to any of their boards in the ensuing three years.

For many TAF board members, this is just a resume builder. They won’t do anything to forward progress in the industry because Dave Bunton and his sycophants will work hard to prevent it like they just did on the AQB. But some people will work as insiders to make a difference as long as Dave and Kelly don’t know who they are.

This TAF “byzantine and weird” corporate bureaucracy is an unfair burden to everyday working appraisers and is destroying the public trust. I hope last Friday’s testimony helped confirm a few reasons why there is no diversity in the industry, and it will enable the ASC to push for accountability and change at TAF.

Tags: The Appraisal Foundation, FHFA, TAF, ASC, Appraisal Subcommittee, diversity, C-SPAN, Appraisal Bias

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The Office of the New York State Comptroller released its analysis of Wall Street Bonuses for 2022 last week.

The real estate industry used to go gaga over this report before the housing bubble. But now, with so many bonuses received as deferred compensation or in a non-cash format, the Manhattan housing market no longer sees an immediate surge in demand when bonuses are announced. However, securities industry jobs seemed relatively unphased by the pandemic and the economic surge in the aftermath of the lockdown.

Wall Street’s 2022 average bonus paid to securities employees dropped to $176,700, a 26% decline from the previous year’s $240,400, according to New York State Comptroller Thomas P. DiNapoli’s annual estimate. Rising interest rates and fear of a recession led to fewer profits on Wall Street after a record haul in 2021.

I update my yearly chart series that breaks out the annual bonus results. Most notable here is the slightly diminished reliance on the securities sector, as noted by the declining salary multiplier to the private sector since the peak in 2007 and the smaller share of securities industry employment to total employment. It’s not in the chart, but the slightly lower contribution of the securities industry with its much higher-paying jobs has been partially offset by the influx of the tech sector, which pays higher wages than the overall private sector.

These chart colors are obnoxious, but their story is still easy to read.

Tags: Wall Street Bonus, Securities Industry

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I write a column for Elliman Magazine called “Market Update” that presents a chart and context around it. Its kind of like my nine-year column “Three Cents Worth” at the old Curbed but more grown-up and without the snark.

Tags: Listing Inventory, Elliman Magazine, Douglas Elliman, New Listing Inventory

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I’m a big fan of Pat Kiernan, the star anchor for Spectrum News NY1. I especially like his “in the papers” spots and I’ve been on his morning show a few times. He interviewed me virtually to set the stage to describe NYC’s housing challenge.

Check it out!

Tags: NY1, Pat Kiernan, Housing Crisis, Spectrum NY1

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I’m a regular listener to the Slate Money podcast so I was thrilled to be invited to participate.

This week, Felix Salmon, Emily Peck, and Elizabeth Spiers are joined by housing market analyst and real estate appraiser Jonathan Miller to answer all their burning real estate questions including what’s going on with mortgage rates, how do new luxury buildings affect prices, and why is rent so damn high?

Tags: Felix Salmon, Emily Peck, Elizabeth Spiers, Slate+, Slate Money

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For each issue of Elliman Magazine produced by Douglas Elliman, the same company that publishes most of our U.S. market research, I write a brief column and create a graphic to illustrate an important issue facing the luxury housing market. Of course, the graphic I create is then supercharged by their very talented graphics staff.

Listing inventory has essentially collapsed in most U.S. housing markets as unusually low rates against the backdrop of robust economic conditions have burned off supply to record lows. Evidence of this is seen in the proliferation of U.S. housings markets with a significant share of bidding wars. Since these are broad markets, various submarkets can see the market share at must higher levels. The proxy for market share is the share of transactions that close above the asking price at time of sale against total period sales.

In the current issue of Elliman Magazine: Spring/Summer 2022, my column “A Symptom of Chronic Inventory Lows: Bidding Wars Are Everywhere”

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Tags: Listing Inventory, Elliman Magazine, bidding wars, Douglas Elliman

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The Winter 2022 issue of Elliman Magazine was published this week and it is quite a beautiful publication. I created a chart for the publication which compares month listing inventory trends across a number of the markets we cover for Douglas Elliman.

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Tags: Elliman Magazine, Douglas Elliman

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Yes, big data usually infers ‘quantitative’ analysis, as in “relying on numbers.” The Zestimate legacy of profound inaccuracy finally reached a devastating conclusion with the collapse of Zillow Offers this week and the loss of hundreds of millions in shareholder equity. Zillow never figured out the qualitative part that enables the actual precision in the pricing of a home sale.

There is a lot of talk right now about how other iBuyers are continuing to buy and sell properties so the space is still viable – business as usual. But step back for a moment and think about this:

• The iBuyer market is currently overcrowded, even with the loss of Zillow Offers.
• The iBuyer bold-faced name is OpenDoor who was the unicorn of Softbank who famously backed WeWork without any apparent due diligence.
• The iBuyer segment is characterized by its razor-thin margins and billions of investment required.
• It was created and run in a rising market, most of it a boom, and was recently turned off during the recent downturn.
• It is wholly dependent on housing markets with homogenous housing stock and will always need high volume just to survive.

I feel pretty confident there will be further fallout over time, but the iBuyer space will settle into a small segment of the overall transaction universe. It has been wildly overhyped (at real estate brokers and real estate appraiser’s expense) as investors, burdened with high volumes of capital, desperate for upside in housing in this fintech boom.

Tags: Zillow, Zillow Offers, iBuyers, Softbank

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The news came quickly and brutally (especially if you were a ZG investor):

@mortgage_yack #zillow #PINKHolidayRemix #realestate #utahrealestate ♬ original sound – Jack

I jumped on the bandwagon with this:

This just in: The “A” in “Zillow” stands for “Accuracy.” https://t.co/j5ukW1zzA9

— Jonathan Miller (@jonathanmiller) November 3, 2021

And this was a perfect post:

so zillow let a robot buy up thousands of properties, outbidding real buyers and artificially inflating the market, and now will be laying off a full quarter of its workforce and selling off the properties to rental corps like BlackRock at vastly discounted prices. that right?

— Insert Clever Name (@BethLynch2020) November 2, 2021

Now let’s digest this in the context of price accuracy:

While Zillow’s CEO Rich Barton essentially said early on that he didn’t want their iBuying efforts (Zillow Offers) to be seen as gaming the Zestimate like that dumb viral Tik Tok video inferred a month ago.

@seangotcher

#housing

♬ San Tropez – Illect Recordings

Yet it would seem unlikely that Zillow Offers used something completely separate and conceptually very different from their ‘Zestimate’ because it would be quite expensive and extremely difficult to keep a radical new valuation concept a complete secret. All we know at this point is whatever valuation methodology they used was a complete fail. And to go a step further their Zestimate valuation methodology has long been a complete failure in the accuracy department. But it hasn’t been a complete failure in the consumer credibility department at all. In fact, it’s been quite successful – after all, Zillow weened control of the U.S. consumer away from the real estate brokerage industry who had enjoyed 100 years of gatekeeper status.

This is why the real estate brokerage industry pays Zillow substantial fees to be featured on a search page in their “Pro” offering, using the source data provided to Zillow by them. Its quite diabolical.

So if we consider the Zestimate to be a proxy for the Zillow Offers valuation tool that failed, it gets worse….

The national median accuracy rate of the Zestimate is 2%.

Because they are using “median” and that term is largely ignored by consumers in the phrase “median accuracy rate” that 2% sounds pretty darn accurate. Yet there is no fine print here. The phrase literally means that 50% of the time the Zestimate is within 2% of actual value and 50% of the time it’s not.

And it gets worse…

The median accuracy rate is only within about 2% if the property being Zestimated is currently listed for sale. But if the property is not currently listed for sale, the median accuracy weakens to 7%.

For the Zestimate to move from 7% to 2%, they are reliant on the broker expertise involved to price the property and get it on the market.

Said another way, in order to get the median accuracy rate from 7% to 2%, they need the brokerage community to price the property to get that touted accuracy rate.

To summarize this point:

The brokerage industry gives all their data to Zillow because Zillow marketed to and won the consumer.

The brokerage industry pays Zillow to market them on the Zillow platform because they gave Zillow all their data.

Zillow became a brokerage firm and therefore a direct competitor to the brokerage industry, something they promised early on would never happen.

Zillow uses the brokerage industry to inaccurately price properties, placing them in an adversarial position with the consumer who wants to sell their home.

Yeah, I get it.

Tags: Zillow, Zestimate Forecast, Rich Barton, Zillow Offers, Accuracy

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One of the problems with my normally preferred year-over-year comparisons with metrics to diffuse seasonal impact is that the year-ago period happened to be the pandemic lockdown.

I went through the region using our market report series for Douglas Elliman, comparing the same period two years ago to capture the pre-COV ID market and prices. and sales are up with the exception of Manhattan and North Fork. Listing inventory is up slightly within the city boroughs and plunged in the suburbs.

Tags: Elliman Report, Douglas Elliman

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To all members of the Appraisal Institute:

Before I start, I wanted to share what the Appraisal Institute’s MAI designation is referred to by many of its members. I learned these two from an MAI instructor years ago (pre-merger) who told our class (as if to motivate us?) that MAI stands for:

MORE ANNUAL INCOME
MADE AS INSTRUCTED

And now…

MORE AMORIN INFLUENCE

Over the last five years, I have frequently been writing about the corruption and self-dealing of the largest appraisal trade group in the U.S., whose membership has fallen by a third over the past decade. Since 1997, the leadership has been largely comprised of the same people moving in and out of leadership positions, enjoying lucrative teaching contracts, enjoying compensation as much as double the market rate, expense reimbursements not consistent with corporate and competing organizations, lots of first-class plane flights to Europe, Asia, and other locations with their spouses, all paid for by the hard-working membership who is not clear about what is happening in Chicago headquarters because they are not told.

There is currently another sham petition process underway to prevent Steven Stiloski, the thoroughly vetted choice of the NNC (the second year in a row this sham petition process was utilized), from becoming Vice President. Steven is representing the choice of the membership. Sandra Adomatis, who by entering the election, no matter what her intentions were, can not be blind to the political poison of this sham petition process and becomes an FOJ by default, no matter how qualified she or her backers say she is.

Remember that the sham petition process places the thoroughly vetted NNC candidate on EQUAL FOOTING with someone Jim Amorin puts into the sham petition process or even someone that self-nominates. Incredible.

Smartly, CEO Jim Amorin chose to limit the exposure to the membership by placing it at the end of the membership newsletter in June (I wrote about this several weeks ago in an earlier version of Appraiserville). And I’ve been told it also appeared in a membership email from the president on June 25th.

So I thought I’d explain one of the things that FOJs (Friends of Jim Amorin) are trying to dismantle because of their eagerness to serve at the pleasure of the current CEO, Jim Amorin.

Let me define what an FOJ (Friends of Jim Amorin) on the Board of Directors is in case the membership is not familiar with this term I coined:

• FOJs are resume builders only, actively running the once-proud organization into the ground for their own personal enrichment.
• The current FOJs on BOD have not filed a single motion – in other words, they do nothing but the bidding of the CEO Jim Amorin.
• They don’t represent diversity, especially the actions of all the women who signed the sham petition process to push for Sandy because it will result in less diversity – remember that the CEO scuttled the diversity committee run by Bob Stevens in 2015 because it was a threat to his hold on power.
• FOJs don’t bring any new ideas to the board or to leadership – they are only on the board to vote “no,” so they will get their committees and puff up their resumes.

Remember that Jim Amorin makes over $500k, and using comps of CEOs at reasonably similar organizations, his salary is nearly double the market rate – and membership is forced to pay that. And consider his FOJ enablers like past president Jeff Sherman, who whined in a board meeting against suggestions that the organization begins to stop paying travel expenses of spouses (which is NOT done by corporate America, incidentally). Finally, remember that FOJs need the CEO to remain in power to get their perks and, basically, to hell with the membership.

Jody (Super-Duper) Bishop gets to select the incoming open positions (about 50) and invite the membership to look at those he selects. Because if Jim Amorin wins this sham petition process and Jody selects all FOJs, then the Appraisal Institute will have zero diversity in the future, and both Bishop’s and Schley’s legacies will be tarnished for the remainder of their professional careers.

Significant diversity initiatives are coming from the new presidential administration, and social mores are shifting too. Current president Rodman Schley has been driving the AI’s presence in the discussion, which keeps AI relevant. All that is for nothing if the sham petition process succeeds in keeping the NNC vetted selection from being duly placed in leadership.

The NNC (National Nominating Committee) is comprised of one member from each of the ten regions. The chairman of the NNC is the immediate past president but has a non-voting role. If there is a tie, the executive committee gets to be the tiebreaker with three votes (Super-Duper Bishop, Craig Steinley, and selection after the sham election process is decided).

The NNC is one of the good governance things that happens in Chicago. This committee is Kryptonite to CEO Jim Amorin, and he has worked hard to weaken it but has failed so far. In the past, he has made the following attempts to weaken the NNC:

• Narrow the number of leaders
  
• Narrow the number of regions
  
• Propose focus on other sources of future leaders
  

The beauty of the NNC structure is that members of the Board of Directors have to wait six years after they roll off the board before they can serve on the NNC. This has been problematic for Jim Amorin because he can’t get his FOJs onto the NNC easily (it takes too much time) to do what they do now on BOD and live a dishonest professional life of quid pro quo. Of course, in turn, for doing Jim’s bidding, they get lots of perks.

The practice of Jim doling out choice positions in return for an FOJ’s ethical soul – they’re not much different than a sociopath in my book – because FOJs have no moral compass and think that outsiders can’t see what they are doing. By definition, FOJs do not care about membership or the direction of the institution. It’s all about getting what they want because they are aligned with the person who does things to keep themselves in power at the membership’s expense. The CEO is very skilled at that.

And to the handful of FOJs that have reached out privately and given me crap about calling out this malpractice of the organization, don’t worry, I will always honor my agreement to keep your name out of this conversation as promised. I am a man of my word. But remember, every one of you is only doing it to preserve the benefits you get from keeping Jim Amorin in power. You have no moral ground beneath you in this debacle. FOJs have placed their self-interest above the membership and the future of the organization. And with that, many FOJs don’t seem to understand how the sausage is made, so they are even more vulnerable to manipulation by the CEO.

And this toxic hypocrisy has seeped into RNC (regional nominating committee) process too. Take Region V, for example. There was a bitterly close election on July 9th. The region selected an FOJ back in April to be in line to be considered for the NNC eventually. And then Jean Gannon, a non-FOJ, threw her hat in to compete with the FOJ candidate, much like the sham petition process I talked about. But this time, the shoe is on the opposite foot for FOJs. Because the Non-FOJ candidate was a threat to the FOJ candidate, two of the “Hateful 8” FOJs, Region V Chair Claire M. Aufrance, and Region V Vice Chair Heather Placer Mull, fought against the regional petition process because they said they believed in (paraphrased) “the sanctity of regional integrity.” LOL.

In other words, the leaders of Region V believed in the “integrity” of the regional nominating process but could care less about the national nominating process. Why? Because it was convenient (and essential) to their role as FOJs. Their hypocrisy should not be lost on you as it is clearly lost on them. They readily can push aside a non-FOJ candidate but then sign the sham petition process at the national level. These are two of the FOJs who play the game well – they do as they are told by the CEO and appear to be there purely as FOJs and not as leaders to move the organization forward.

The hypocrisy that Aufrance and Mull have shown begs the question: Is this the type of people that should be anywhere near a Board of Directors position or regional leadership?

Oh, and it gets worse.

Board of Directors member Trevor Hubbard has been working the room to get the Appraisal Institute to get rid of its residential members. No one I know has any idea why. I find his efforts consistent with the disrespect and lack of attention that residential membership has experienced since the Jim Amorin era began in 2007. After all, we’re still waiting for any feedback from the sham residential appraiser committee that Jim Amorin formed to help diffuse the anger of their 2016 money-grab to take all chapter funds.

Ironically, I’m told Trevor pushed Sandy, a residential appraiser candidate (even if she self-nominated) to offset the NNC vetted commercial appraiser candidate because her credentials checked the boxes that might not get the same pushback as a male commercial appraiser candidate. The hypocrisy here is that this Uber FOJ was so desperate to prevent the NNC vetted selection from being finalized that he had to use a residential appraiser to do it, despite his disdain for them – to get rid of them from the organization. This is Hubbard’s second time on the sham petition process rodeo. His actions show his extreme desperation to remain relevant in the Appraisal Institute. He was willing to be a hypocrite in the sham petition process to keep himself relevant and get rid of residential appraisers.

Trevor’s public anti-residential appraiser stance showed that he would happily do the bidding of Jim Amorin even if it meant using a residential appraiser to do it. There is a lot at stake here. Losing this sham petition process to Steve would jeopardize the position of all FOJs, including Trevor, whatever his beliefs about the residential versus the commercial future of the Appraisal Institute happen to be.

You can see why Trevor’s idea could have legs given the big fall-off in residential membership during the Amorin era and how much SRAs have been ignored and looked down on as second-class citizens. As of now, there are only about 3,000 SRAs out of the roughly 17,000 total members. Pathetic.

Bottom Line: The FOJ gravy train stops if Sandra (FOJ backed candidate) loses and Steve (NNC vetted choice) is confirmed – to FOJs, their actions indicate they care nothing about the dues-paying hard-working membership. The CEO gravy train is all FOJs care about.

Membership has to stop the FOJ gravy train by loudly speaking out against this sham petition process right now – loud and proud. Remember that Jim Amorin scrubbed the regional contact page of all phone numbers and emails for this very reason. He knows the scrubbing was done because he and the board reads every one of my posts about The Appraisal Institute. The AI tech people report to him directly and he has chosen not to return the contact information to the website, thus demonstrating the ethics of the operations leadership of AI is basically zero.

Remember that the complacency of AI membership in the past allowed FOJs to remain in power and get quite financially comfortable. Strong action by the membership today gets FOJs out of power and the organization on the road to recovery and back to relevancy.

The Appraisal Institute is in the hands of membership now – they need to choose the right path for the future of this once great organization. Please make this moment count – it’s your last chance to make yourself heard.

And here’s a quick shoutout to FOJ Jeff Harris who says my writing is garbage. What can I say? I’m an outsider. If you have an issue (I’m not stopping my efforts), feel free to let me know what I got wrong – happy to keep it in confidence if you wish. AI was once an important industry player and I’d love to see it return. The transgressions in recent years have been a distraction from the mission and it impacts appraisers outside the tent too. That’s what I take issue with.

Tags: Appraisal Institute, Board of Directors, Jim Amorin, NNC, RNC, FOJ

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I’m a Counselor of Real Estate (CRE) and wanted to share this….

Join The Counselors of Real Estate on June 23 for the unveiling of the 2021-22 Top Ten Issues Affecting Real Estate®. Now in its 10th year, this signature thought leadership initiative identifies the current and emerging issues expected to have the most significant impact on all sectors of real estate. The Top Ten is developed through broad discussion, polling, and debate among 1,000 Counselors of Real Estate® and is an invaluable resource to clients of Counselors worldwide and to the real estate industry at large.

Don’t miss the countdown on June 23. Register for free here.

Tags: Counselor of Real Estate, CRE, Ten Issues Affecting Real Estate®

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