Now that two and a half years have passed since the early 2022 Fed pivot resulting in the steepest ascent of interest rates in fifty years, pent-up demand has been building. Homebuyers have been waiting for rates to come down – a sign of better things to come. At the same time, the rate cut conversation keeps pushing the first cut expectation backwards. First it was April, then June, September and December have all been common predictions for the 2024 moment. And each time a ~70% consensus by economists seems to have been reached. This is why I think that whenever the first rate cut occurs, the demand reaction will be oversized. Yesterday’s lively conversation on Bloomberg Surveillance with Lisa Abramowicz, Dani Burger and Annmarie Hordern covered that. I really appreciate the invite despite getting up at 4am to make to the studio on time. Ha.