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TV, Videos
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After I finished the Yahoo Finance interview last Thursday, I ran over to 30Rock and taped a segment for Nightly Business Report/CNBC on our Elliman Manhattan report release. Robert Frank, the wealth editor for CNBC, interviewed me remotely. These are pretty fun to do, especially because to get there, I have to walk next to Christmas Tree, Rockefeller Ice Rink and finally “The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon” set.
Tags: CNBC, Robert Frank, Nightly Business Report, Elliman Report, NBR
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TV, Videos
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As always, I had a wonderful conversion with Vonnie Quinn, anchor of Bloomberg TV’s Markets today. It was a long interview where we discussed national and NYC metric trends. The following portion covered the Amazon HQ2 story in Long Island City, NY.
Tags: Vonnie Quinn, Amazon, HQ2, landlord concessions
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Charts
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The Winter 2019 Issue of Elliman Magazine was just released. I provided a two-page spread showing various market tidbits on random U.S. markets where Douglas Elliman has a footprint. The magazine is well done and a good aspirational read.
[click to expand]
Here’s the full online version of the magazine:
Tags: Elliman Magazine
Since housing market trends are all about seasonality, I thought it was interesting that the Manhattan residential vacancy rate seems devoid of such patterns.
What am I missing here?
Tags: Seasonality, Rentals, Vacancy Rate
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TV, Videos
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I enjoyed my sit down with Vonnie Quinn and Shery Ahn on Bloomberg Markets yesterday. The discussion focused on the release of the Elliman Report: Q2-2018 Manhattan Sales that I have authored since 1994 and the Bloomberg story that covered it.
Tags: Bloomberg TV, Vonnie Quinn, Manhattan, Elliman Report, Bloomberg Markets, Shery Ahn
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Infographics
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Every seasonal edition, Douglas Elliman Real Estate asks me to provide a visual market update for their magazine in any 5 of the markets they cover nationwide. The following graphic is found in their latest Elliman Magazine.
Click on the following graphic to see my charts in all their majesty.
Tags: Elliman Magazine
James Nelson, a commercial broker powerhouse who just moved from Cushman & Wakefield to Avison Young, came to my office and interviewed me on the new federal tax law and related subjects for his Globe Street blog column called “The Full Nelson“.
[click on image to watch interview]
He provided NYC sales volume data for all NYC boroughs but Staten Island – and I combined it with the residential data we collect to see how the real estate types compare side-by-side.
[click to expand]
Tags: Globe Street, James Nelson, Cushman and Wakefield, The Full Nelson, Avison Young
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Charts
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After controlling the Manhattan housing market for quite a while, sellers and landlords exchanged roles with buyers and tenants circa 2015.
After peaking in 3Q 2015, the market share of bidding wars fell by two thirds. Bidding wars remain more common at lower price points. After bottoming in the 3Q 2015, the market share of rentals with landlord concessions has expanded sharply due to high-end rental development over-building. But like the sales market, the oversupply remains at the upper end.
Aside
Sunday, December 31, 2017, was a trifecta of my New York Times Real Estate market insight goodness before the year ended:
Landlords and Sellers Adjust [New York Times: Calculator column]
Manhattan Prices Stable in 2017, Even as Luxury Takes a Breather [New York Times: Big Ticket column]
Ditching the Tub [New York Times]
Tags: Calculator, Michael Kolomatsky, New York Times Real Estate Section
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Articles
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For those of you that read my weekly Housing Notes, you’ll know I refer to 2014 as “Peak New Development” for the Manhattan housing market. “Peak Luxury” works as a label too.
Bloomberg news broke the story that a $50M+ condo purchased in 2014 just sold at a foreclosure auction for $36,000,0000. There were five bidders. It’s been the fourth resale since the market peaked and the sixth overall – so I created a graphic of all the resales to show how they fared before and after the 2014 “peak.”
The Bloomberg story (that I got to chime in on) lays out the details of the One57 auction sale: One57 Foreclosure Shatters Price Dreams at Billionaires’ Tower
The story reached #1 as the most read on the 350k± Bloomberg Terminals worldwide yesterday.
It is important to remember that there are still a fair amount of units remaining that are priced at 2014 levels. Extell, the developer, has their work cut out for them to compete with current market conditions.
While One57 is a symbolic poster child for the new dev phenomenon, it is not a proxy for the entire new development market. Some projects were priced more reasonably at the peak, hence they haven’t fallen as much. In addition, the quality and design of each project can vary greatly. One thing is clear – since the 2014 peak, investors don’t have the same potential for big and fast returns on flips – their initial strategy was to buy early and realize instant equity as the sponsor increased the offering prices. That scenario no longer applies. Since the market has more choices for buyers now than it did back during peak, One57 is no longer seen as a “new” building like it was back then.
CNBC picked up the story – My firm and I get a shoutout during the conversation on Sqawkbox which was pretty cool.
Luxury condo in One57 tower sold in New York City’s biggest ever foreclosure auction from CNBC.
And here’s the transcript on yesterday’s PBS Nightly Business Report show (owned by CNBC) with the shoutout that is making the rounds.
Tags: One57, Extell, Bloomberg News, Number 1 on Bloomberg Terminals
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TV, Videos
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I had a fun conversation on Bloomberg Television with Scarlet Fu, Joe Weisenthal and Julia Chatterley. We were discussing the results of our research behind the Elliman Report: Manhattan Sales 3Q17 that was just released. Here is the Bloomberg story on the report results.
Here’s a portion of the interview.
If you’d like to see the whole segment, my interview starts at the 48:40 mark although I really like the format and the hosts so you might want to watch the whole show.
Tags: Scarlet Fu, Joe Weisenthal, Julia Chatterley
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Charts
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Douglas Elliman Real Estate just published their fall issue. I created the content for pages 208-209 and I think it looks pretty snazzy (and interesting).
Click on image below to expand.
Tags: Elliman Magazine
The following is a housing related infographic on steroids from Visual Capitalist.
Tags: Vancouver, Visual Capitalist
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Jonathan Miller is President and CEO of Miller Samuel Inc., a real estate appraisal and consulting firm he co-founded in 1986. He is a state-certified real estate appraiser in New York and Connecticut, performing court testimony as an expert witness in various local, state, and federal courts. He holds the Counselors of Real Estate (CRE) designation, is an Appraiser “A” Member of the Real Estate Board of New York, and is a member of RAC.
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You'll be able to choose from an array of robust housing metrics compiled using research developed during the preparation of our market report series. Expanded significantly from prior offerings, use this resource to build charts and custom data tables or leverage your own information for more powerful research and presentations.
In the meantime, here is a small sample of the aggregated data we will provide.
Forbes ('20-)
Appraisersblogs ('17-)
'Three Cents Worth' column 3CW ('05-'16)
When Curbed was acquired by Vox, my eleven years of 3CW chart art and column links were broken on Curbed NY, Curbed DC, Curbed Miami, Curbed Hamptons, Curbed LA, and Curbed Ski.
Many of my 3CW charts can be found here:
Curbed 3CW Full Chart Archive
Op-ed column ('14-'15)
'Economic Spotlight column ('03-'09)
New York Times experiment ('08-09')
Huffington Post (09')
Favorite "How to Value" Posts
Recent Comments on Matrix