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The New York Times got the market nuances right in their epic end of year The Real Estate Collapse of 2020.

And including epic charts makes it even better.

I noticed that the Streeteasy median rent chart used in the piece shows the same pattern as my recent chart in Bloomberg. That drop in rent is gigantic.

[Source: Bloomberg – click image to open article]

Tags: New York Times, StreetEasy, Bloomberg News, NYT Real Estate, 2020, Stefanos Chen, Vivian Marino

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This week’s Bloomberg Trifecta…

After the publication of our Q1-2019 Manhattan Sales Report for Douglas Elliman, there was a coverage by Bloomberg (and others): Bloomberg reporter Sydney Maki, anchor Vonnie Quinn on Bloomberg TV and a subsequent drive-time Bloomberg Radio interview with Denise Pellegrini.

(For a more detailed analysis with charts, commentary and reports, subscribe to my weekly Housing Notes, published on Fridays.)

Tags: Bloomberg TV, Bloomberg Radio, Vonnie Quinn, Bloomberg News, Elliman Report, Douglas Elliman, Denise Pellegrini, Sydney Maki

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For those of you that read my weekly Housing Notes, you’ll know I refer to 2014 as “Peak New Development” for the Manhattan housing market. “Peak Luxury” works as a label too.

Bloomberg news broke the story that a $50M+ condo purchased in 2014 just sold at a foreclosure auction for $36,000,0000. There were five bidders. It’s been the fourth resale since the market peaked and the sixth overall – so I created a graphic of all the resales to show how they fared before and after the 2014 “peak.”

The Bloomberg story (that I got to chime in on) lays out the details of the One57 auction sale: One57 Foreclosure Shatters Price Dreams at Billionaires’ Tower

The story reached #1 as the most read on the 350k± Bloomberg Terminals worldwide yesterday.

It is important to remember that there are still a fair amount of units remaining that are priced at 2014 levels. Extell, the developer, has their work cut out for them to compete with current market conditions.

While One57 is a symbolic poster child for the new dev phenomenon, it is not a proxy for the entire new development market. Some projects were priced more reasonably at the peak, hence they haven’t fallen as much. In addition, the quality and design of each project can vary greatly. One thing is clear – since the 2014 peak, investors don’t have the same potential for big and fast returns on flips – their initial strategy was to buy early and realize instant equity as the sponsor increased the offering prices. That scenario no longer applies. Since the market has more choices for buyers now than it did back during peak, One57 is no longer seen as a “new” building like it was back then.

CNBC picked up the story – My firm and I get a shoutout during the conversation on Sqawkbox which was pretty cool.

Luxury condo in One57 tower sold in New York City’s biggest ever foreclosure auction from CNBC.

And here’s the transcript on yesterday’s PBS Nightly Business Report show (owned by CNBC) with the shoutout that is making the rounds.

Tags: One57, Extell, Bloomberg News, Number 1 on Bloomberg Terminals

2 Comments

The Bloomberg News story “Brooklyn Homes Sell at Record Pace in Outer-Borough Surge” was the 3rd most read story on the Bloomberg terminals world wide this afternoon.

Here’s the Douglas Elliman report.

The Brooklyn housing story in fact earned more reads than the Stanford Business School sex scandal, the Bill Gross $200M lawsuit against PIMCO and Deutsche Bank’s $7B loss this quarter.

After all, Brooklyn is now a global brand.

Tags: global, Bloomberg News, Oshrat Carmiel, Bloomberg Terminals, brand

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[click to expand]

After all the hoopla over the recent $147M sale in The Hamptons, I compiled a list of the highest priced sales around the world I could think of. It’s not comprehensive since all the sales are in the US or UK, and there are a few out there that haven’t closed yet.

Here’s a very brief Marketplace Radio piece on this phenomenon.

Please share if you know of others!

A few takeaways:

• The media coverage to actual sales ratio is staggering.
• There can’t be more than a few dozen, a few hundred or perhaps a few thousand that would be considered buyers in this space at any one time.
• These sales are a pop culture-like distraction from the growing issue of access to affordable housing in the US.

Tags: Bloomberg News, Most Expensive, Marketplace, List, Radio

2 Comments

Since we have another cold snap in our midst, I thought I talk about cold weather and housing trends.

Back in early January, the US experienced what has now become a household phrase – “The Polar Vortex” and extreme weather has morphed its way into recent housing reports as plausible explanations for a slow down in some of the results.

Buyer perspective: Imagine a couple looking to buy their first home and decide they will begin looking right after the New Year. The dreaded Polar Vortex hits and it is too uncomfortable to run around looking at houses in freezing temperatures, so they postpone until the weather warms up in a month or 2.

Seller perspective: Imagine a homeowner who decides to put their home on the market and they experience searing pain from the cold by simply going to the grocery store. They can’t imagine a buyer coming to look at their home in the severe weather and don’t want their home to sit, so they postpone until the weather warms up in a month or 2.

In both scenarios, I would venture to guess that no one would say:

WOW, this weather is severe. I’ve rethought my (buying or selling) decision and will cancel the idea for a few years because the weather is too cold right now.

or

WOW, this weather is severe. Staying warm in my home right now made me realize that I rushed to make my decision and will no longer (buy or sell) for a long time.

Consumers can better relate to the weather than macro economic theory so throw it into the title of a news article:

NBC News: Spring Thaw May Not Heat up This Housing Market
Bloomberg News: Cooling U.S. Home Sales Only Partly Due to Weather: Economy
Fox Business: Housing Freeze: It’s Not Just The Weather

If we isolate the housing market to new construction (which represent about 15% of sales historically) then it gets a lot more plausible – ie permits, starts etc. can be more affected by the weather on a pragmatic basis.

But that has little or no impact to the vast majority of housing consumers.

Here’s one way to visualize the potential impact of weather to retail sales activity (translation: slow down, spring back) in Business Insider.

Context, people, context.

Tags: CNBC, Polar Vortex, NBC, Fox Business, Housing Recovery, Bloomberg News

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Here are the 3 Manhattan luxury housing price indices we provide for the Bloomberg Terminals through 2Q 2013.

MLH AVG Index (Miller Samuel Manhattan Luxury Housing Average Sales Price) [click to expand]

MLH SQFT Index (Miller Samuel Manhattan Luxury Housing Price Per Square Foot) [click to expand]

MLH MED Index (Miller Samuel Manhattan Luxury Housing Median Sales Price) [click to expand]

Tags: Bloomberg News

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A while ago Bloomberg created three luxury housing indices using our Manhattan historical data for their terminal subscribers. Kinda cool. For all the high end housing market hype, the upper end has remained fairly stable for several years. That may change a bit going forward (higher).

Here are the latest:

MLH SQFT Index (Miller Samuel Manhattan Luxury Housing Price Per Square Foot)

[click to expand]

MLH MED Index (Miller Samuel Manhattan Luxury Housing Median Sales Price)

[click to expand]

MLH AVG Index (Miller Samuel Manhattan Luxury Housing Average Sales Price)

[click to expand]

Tags: Bloomberg News

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Here are the 3 Manhattan luxury housing price indices we provide for the Bloomberg Terminals.

MLH AVG Index (Miller Samuel Manhattan Luxury Housing Average Sales Price)
[click to expand]

MLH SQFT Index (Miller Samuel Manhattan Luxury Housing Price Per Square Foot)
[click to expand]

MLH MED Index (Miller Samuel Manhattan Luxury Housing Median Sales Price)
[click to expand]

Tags: Bloomberg News

2 Comments

A few years ago Bloomberg created indices for the Manhattan Luxury Housing market based on our data to be seen by their terminal subscribers. Cool to have an index based on our research (and a project triggered by our report efforts).

The top 10% of the market (Luxury) is hovering at just over $2,000 per square foot for the past year [top chart]. Median sales price has remained just above $4M for the past 3 years [bottom chart].

Tags: Bloomberg News, Miller Cicero

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A few years ago Bloomberg set indices for the Manhattan Luxury Housing market based on our data seen by their terminal subscribers. Kind of cool.

These charts show the reset when the credit crunch began circa 2007-2009. On a ppsf basis (top chart), the luxury market seems to have begun climbing again at the same trajectory that was seen pre-Lehman bankruptcy.

Tags: Bloomberg News, Lehman

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Had a nice conversation about the rental market with Bloomberg’s Pimm Fox, one of the nicest people you’ll ever meet, on his show Taking Stock.

Tags: Pimm Fox, Television, Bloomberg News

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