[At First, Insight] 1Q 2009 Manhattan Market Overview Available For Download

April 2, 2009 | 9:54 pm | | Reports |

The 1Q 2009 Manhattan Market Overview that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman was released today.

Other reports we prepare can be found here.

The 1Q 2009 data and a series of updated charts are also available.

Press coverage can be found here.

An excerpt

…Last fall’s rapid change in market conditions established a new housing market that reflected a lower level of activity and a reset of housing prices. The tipping point, which occurred last September at the bailout of Lehman Brothers and bailouts of AIG, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, marked a sharp contraction of credit, greatly restricting demand as participants had more difficulty obtaining financing. A national recession, rising unemployment and reduced compensation in the financial services sector also played a role in restricting demand. The market reset caused sellers to be more than a year behind the current market, still setting list prices in relation to the last high water mark in their respective buildings. This resulted in the expansion of inventory, listing discount and days on market metrics…

Download 1Q 2009 Manhattan Market Overview

Tags: ,


[Commercial Grade] New York City Income Property Market Report Second Half 2008 Is Available For Download

March 21, 2009 | 9:04 am | Reports |

commercialgradeheader

John Cicero, MAI provides commentary on issues affecting real estate appraisers, with specific focus on commercial valuation. John is a partner of mine in our commercial real estate valuation concern Miller Cicero, LLC and he is, depending on what day of the week it is, one of the smartest guys I know.
…Jonathan Miller

The Massey Knakal Income Property Report that I prepare on behalf of the brokerage firm was just released for the second half of 2008. The report is the only one of its kind that tracks cap rates, income multipliers, price per square foot and number of sales for the New York City multi-family market. As this report included only those sales (above $500,000) that closed from July 1 through December 31, it includes sales closed before and after the market turn in mid-September, when Lehman collapsed and the credit markets seized.

An excerpt:

The number of sales dropped 45% from the second half of 2007 to the second half of 2008. Relative to the prior year the greatest declines were in Manhattan and Northern Manhattan, both down 54%, and the Bronx, down 60%. Year over year there were 37% fewer sales in 2008. This suggests a turnover rate of 1.9%, down from 3.0% in 2007 (of the categories tracked).

Massey Knakal will distribute nearly 300,000 hard copies of the report over the next few months.

Massey Knakal New York City Income Property Market Report [2H08]

Report Methodology [Miller Cicero]


Tags: , ,


[Miller Cicero] New York City Income Property Market Report Second Half 2008 Is Available For Download

March 21, 2009 | 7:56 am | Reports |

Our commercial advisory firm just released its New York City Income Property Market Report for the second half of 2008 for Massey Knakal. My commercial valuation partner John Cicero prepares the report. It’s the only report of its kind that covers the New York City commercial market.

Here’s what he says:
The Massey Knakal Income Property Report that I prepare on behalf of the brokerage firm was just released for the second half of 2008. The report is the only one of its kind that tracks cap rates, income multipliers, price per square foot and number of sales for the New York City multi-family market. As this report included only those sales (above $500,000) that closed from July 1 through December 31, it includes sales closed before and after the market turn in mid-September, when Lehman collapsed and the credit markets seized.

An excerpt:

The number of sales dropped 45% from the second half of 2007 to the second half of 2008. Relative to the prior year the greatest declines were in Manhattan and Northern Manhattan, both down 54%, and the Bronx, down 60%. Year over year there were 37% fewer sales in 2008. This suggests a turnover rate of 1.9%, down from 3.0% in 2007 (of the categories tracked).

Massey Knakal will distribute nearly 300,000 hard copies of the report over the next few months.

Massey Knakal New York City Income Property Market Report [2H08]

Report Methodology [Miller Cicero]


Tags: , ,


[Manhattan Decadence] 1999-2008 Manhattan Market Report Available For Download

March 3, 2009 | 12:28 pm | | Reports |

The 1999-2008 Manhattan Market Report that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman was released today. (Perhaps releasing 3, 10-year reports on the same day is why I have been light on posts for the past week.)

I have dubbed this report “The Phonebook” for its 60 pages of data excess. This report is downloaded more than all other quarterly studies we produce, combined.

Dottie Herman, the President/CEO of Prudential Douglas Elliman whose name adorns the report is a big believer in historical information as a companion to cutting edge data to provide a better perspective.

Approximately 94,000 co-op and condo sales transactions from more than 6,400 buildings over the last ten years were analyzed. Each of the 53 different market areas was analyzed with data tables and charts as well as a summary matrix with prior year and prior decade comparisons.

An excerpt

…Despite weakening market conditions in the second half of 2008, all three price indicators trended higher this year, each setting records. The average sales price for a Manhattan apartment was $1,591,823 this year, up 17.8% from the $1,351,621 average sales price record set in 2007. The increase was skewed by the surge in higher priced sales, especially from new development activity. This year also marks the twelfth consecutive annual increase in the metric over the previous year beginning with the $399,501 average sales price in 1996. Median sales price exceeded the $900,000 threshold for the first time, rising 11% to a record $955,000 from a record $860,000 in 2007. Median sales price has risen for 13 consecutive years beginning in 1995 when this metric was $207,500. Price per square foot was a record $1,251 per square foot, 11.7% higher than the record $1,120 per square foot in 2007 and the third consecutive year this metric has remained above the $1,000 per square foot threshold. Price per square foot has increased over the prior year for the past twelve years…

Download the 1999-2008 Manhattan Market Report

Download other market reports prepared by Miller Samuel


Tags:


[10-Story House] 1999-2008 Manhattan Townhouse Report Available For Download

March 3, 2009 | 12:09 pm | | Reports |

The 1999-2008 Manhattan Townhouse Report that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman was released today. Dottie Herman, the President/CEO of Prudential Douglas Elliman is pushing hard to make information more accessible to the public.

Approximately 2,500 Manhattan residential townhouse transactions were analyzed over this ten year period. 1, 2 and 3-5 (delivered vacant) family houses comprised the data set.

An excerpt

…The annual median sales price of a Manhattan townhouse was a record $4,995,000 this quarter, up 59.8% from the prior year $3,125,000 median sales price. Average sales price showed the same pattern, rising 58.3% to a record $7,372,987 from $4,658,155 over the prior year. Price per square foot reached a record this year, up 42% to $1,615 from $1,137 per square foot in the prior year. The sharp rise in price trends was due to price growth of the luxury market as well as the east side, which has a high concentration of luxury properties. There were 530 townhouses in listing inventory at the end of 2008, up 15.2% from 460 townhouses listed at the end of 2007. The expansion of inventory and decline in the number of sales is consistent with increased negotiability and longer marketing times…

Download the 1999-2008 Manhattan Townhouse Report

Download other market reports prepared by Miller Samuel


Tags:


[East End Around] 1999-2008 Hamptons/North Fork Report

March 3, 2009 | 12:00 pm | | Reports |

The 2008 Prudential Douglas Elliman Hamptons/North Fork Market Report is now available for download. Dottie Herman, the President/CEO of Prudential Douglas Elliman is a big believer in market transparency, something rare in the real estate brokerage business.

I have been writing various incarnations of the New York regional market report series for Prudential Douglas Elliman since 1994 and this is the second time we have prepared a ten year report for the East End market. Its data heavy without the text. A recap of the past decade.

Guess what? Housing is cyclical.



Download the Prudential Douglas Elliman 2008 Hamptons/North Fork Market Report

Download other market reports prepared by Miller Samuel


Tags:


[East End] 4Q 2008 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview Available For Download

February 5, 2009 | 5:23 pm | | Reports |

The online version of the Prudential Douglas Elliman 4Q 2008 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview [Miller Samuel] is available for download. Sorry, but I was tardy posting this report to my site after the initial release and coverage.

I have been writing various incarnations of the New York regional market report series for Prudential Douglas Elliman since 1994. The President and CEO of Prudential Douglas Elliman, Dottie Herman, is a big believer in publishing market data to create more transparency for consumers in the markets her firm serves – Manhattan to Montauk.

To build Hamptons/North Fork custom data tables

To view Hamptons/North Fork charts

An excerpt

…The days on market averaged 150 this quarter, 16 days faster than the 166 days on market during the same period last year. “Casual sellers” are not listing their properties in significant numbers, which has helped temper the pace of rising inventory. In addition, the negotiability between buyers and sellers expanded significantly this quarter. The average listing discount was 15.4% from the list price at time of contract to the contract price, up from 8.1% during the same period last year. This indicator suggests that for most properties that go to contract, the seller has come down significantly to reach current market levels. This is further evidenced by the 35% listing discount from the original list price. Sellers continue to be behind the market and are inclined to price property based on the high water mark set in their local market in the past few years, rather than in line with current conditions…

Download report: 4Q 2008 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview [pdf]


Tags:


4Q 2008 Queens Market Overview Available For Download

January 23, 2009 | 11:41 pm | | Reports |

The 4Q 2008 Queens Market Overview that I author for Prudential Douglas Ellimanis available for download.

The President and CEO of Prudential Douglas Elliman, Dottie Herman, is a big believer in publishing market data to create more transparency for consumers in the market her firm serves – Manhattan to Montauk.

Other reports we prepare can be found here.

Customized tables for the 4Q 2008 Queens data and a series of updated charts are available on our corporate site.

A report excerpt

…The regional economy and the continued difficultly for buyers to obtain financing continues to restrict the level of sales activity in the Queens housing market. Sellers continue to price property “behind” the market, while buyers who can get credit see less urgency in their purchase decision due to an increase in the number of properties to choose from. There were 39.1% fewer transactions in the quarter with a total of 2,737 compared to 4,491 sales in the same period last year. The number of sales is 52.7% below the level of activity seen two years ago. However, the number of listings slipped this quarter as compared to the prior year quarter. Listing inventory contracted 2.3% to 9,822 units from 10,053 units in the prior year quarter. Because listing inventory is expected to move in the opposite direction as the number of sales, this decline in inventory is believed to be an anomaly. However, the pattern suggests that there are fewer “casual sellers”…

The media coverage of the report is available here as they were obtained (in no particular order).


Tags:


4Q 2008 Long Island Market Overview Available For Download

January 22, 2009 | 1:01 pm | | Reports |

The 4Q 2008 Long Island Market Overview that I author for Prudential Douglas Ellimanis available for download.

The President and CEO of Prudential Douglas Elliman, Dottie Herman, is a big believer in publishing market data to create more transparency for consumers in the market her firm serves – Manhattan to Montauk.

Other reports we prepare can be found here.

Customized tables for the 4Q 2008 Long Island data and a series of updated charts are available on our corporate site.

A report excerpt

…For the second consecutive quarter, listing inventory has declined in addition to the contraction in the number of sales over the same period and the prior year quarter. There were 20,730 properties listed for sale at the end of the current quarter, down 0.3% from the same period last year with 20,801 properties listed at that time. The number of sales slipped 3.4% over the same period to 4,427 sales, from 4,584 sales. The stabilization of inventory combined with the decline in number of sales suggests that there are fewer Ã’casual sellersÓ with many opting to wait until housing market conditions improve before listing a property. The contraction of credit and the current recession continue to limit the number of sales, placing downward pressure on price trends…

The media coverage of the report is available here as they were obtained (in no particular order).


Tags:


[When Brooklyn Was The World] 4Q 2008 Brooklyn Market Overview Available For Download

January 14, 2009 | 10:08 pm | | Radio |

The 4Q 2008 Brooklyn Market Overview that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman was just released.

The President and CEO of Prudential Douglas Elliman, Dottie Herman, is a big believer in publishing market data to create more transparency for consumers in the market her firm serves – Manhattan to Montauk.

Other reports we prepare can be found here.

Customized tables for the 4Q 2008 Brooklyn data and a series of updated charts are available on our corporate site.

A report excerpt

…The median sales price was $490,000, down 7.5% from the prior year quarter result of $530,000 and down 3.9% from the prior quarter result of $510,000. The year over year change in quarter median sales price has declined for 5 consecutive quarters beginning in the fourth quarter of 2007 when the decline was 0.9%. Subsequent quarters resulted in declines in this metric of 1%, 1.9%, 5.6% and 7.5%. In addition, this is the first time the indicator fell below $500,000 since the first quarter of 2006 when the median sales price was $499,500. Average sales price for the quarter was $559,338, down 5.2% from the prior year quarter average sales price of $590,169 and down 2.8% from $575,287 in the prior quarter. Brooklyn showed declines in median sales price more than a year ahead of Manhattan…

The media coverage of the report is available here as they were obtained (in no particular order). In addition, the headlines and respective links to articles listed below are a fun way to see how the media interprets the report content since every outlet was working off the same information.

Print/Web

Brooklyn Apartment, Home Prices Drop 7.5% as Recession Hits [Bloomberg]
Brooklyn Housing Boom: Dude, It’s So Over [New York Observer]
Q4 Brooklyn Reports Show Bloodletting, Except Brownstones [Curbed]
Brooklyn housing market still suffering [Crains]
Brooklyn apartment sales prices fall 7.5 pct -report [Reuters]
Brooklyn Real Estate Begins to Collapse, Too [Gothamist]
Brooklyn apartment sales prices fall 7.5 pct -report [Forbes]
Brooklyn Real-estate Market Reports: More Sobering News [New York Mag]
Elliman: Condos Down, Co-ops Flat, Brownstones Up in 4Q [Brownstoner]
Brownstone Brooklyn prices unscathed in fourth quarter [The Real Deal]
Brooklyn Housing Market Hit [WNYC]
Experts: Real-estate boom about to go bust [The Brooklyn Paper]

Radio

4Q 08 Brooklyn Market recap [WNYC Radio]
Brooklyn Housing Market in 4q 2008 [Bloomberg Radio]


Tags: , , , ,


[Quadrillions In Indebtedness] 4Q 2008 Manhattan Market Overview Available For Download

January 8, 2009 | 2:25 am | | Public |

The 4Q 2008 Manhattan Market Overview that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman was released on Tuesday.

Other reports we prepare can be found here.

The 4Q 2008 data and a series of updated charts are also available.

All in all, well over 100 media hits covering the report (that we know about, but who’s counting) without a formal press release. Apparently there is interest in the Manhattan housing market.

An excerpt

…At the close of the prior quarter, there was significant turmoil in the financial markets and unprecedented intervention by federal government agencies. The bailout of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and insurance giant AIG, the investor run on the money market Reserve Primary Fund and the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, marked a significant change in the Manhattan housing market as well as the US housing market. The fourth quarter was characterized by a sharp decline in contract activity and a downward correction in contract price levels. Sales contract activity showed evidence of a decline in activity of 40% to 75% compared to the same period last year. Contract price levels showed an average decline of 20% from August 2008. As a result of the 45-60 day lag between contract and closing date, a decline is anticipated in both the number of sales and closing price levels in the first quarter of 2009…

In 2005, I began posting the links of the coverage of each report to see how each media outlet reports the market using the exact same data. I find it to be an interesting way to look at how this information is interpreted and presented.

The media coverage of the report was provided here as they were released (in no particular order). The headlines selected below provide an interesting media perspective of the report contents since every outlet was working off the same information. I didn’t include all the wire stories from AP, Bloomberg or Reuters.

Print/Web

Television/Radio


Tags: , , , ,


[East End Two-fer] 3Q 2008 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview + 1998-2007 Hamptons/North Fork Report Available For Download

November 4, 2008 | 4:24 pm | | Reports |

The online version of the Prudential Douglas Elliman 3Q 2008 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview [Miller Samuel] is now available for download.

I have been writing various incarnations of the New York regional market report series for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

To build Hamptons/North Fork custom data tables
To view Hamptons/North Fork charts

An excerpt
…The upper price range of the housing market continues to outperform the overall housing market. In each of the past four quarters, the luxury market, defined as the upper ten percent of all sales, saw a higher year over year quarterly increase in median sales price than the overall market. The luxury market increased 10.3% in median sales price and the overall market declined 9.2% in median sales price compared to the same period last year. The market area south of the highway consistently has the highest overall prices as compared to the areas to the north and on either side of the canal. Of the four regions, only south of the highway saw an increase in median sales price of 1% as compared to the prior year quarter…

A New Report…
This year, we created a 10-year window of the East End using public record information. The result is a 4-page report crammed with information but no narrative (given my grammar-challenged writing skills, it’s a bit of a relief). I created the Prudential Douglas Elliman 1998-2007 Hamptons/North Fork Market Report which is now available for download. I got this project going in August so I do realize it is dated in terms of the current year but the plan is to release this report annually so the 2008 version will be completed in early 2009.







Download report: 3Q 2008 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview [pdf]
Download report: 1998-2007 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview [pdf]


Get Weekly Insights and Research

Housing Notes by Jonathan Miller

Receive Jonathan Miller's 'Housing Notes' and get regular market insights, the market report series for Douglas Elliman Real Estate as well as interviews, columns, blog posts and other content.

Follow Jonathan on Twitter

#Housing analyst, #realestate, #appraiser, podcaster/blogger, non-economist, Miller Samuel CEO, family man, maker of snow and lobster fisherman (order varies)
NYC CT Hamptons DC Miami LA Aspen
millersamuel.com/housing-notes
Joined October 2007