[Turning The Corner] 3Q 2009 Manhattan Market Overview Available For Download

October 2, 2009 | 8:17 am | | Reports |

The 3Q 2009 Manhattan Market Overview , part of a report series that we have authored for Prudential Douglas Elliman since 1994, was released today.

Other reports we prepare can be found here.

The 3Q 2009 data and a series of charts are also available for viewing.

Press coverage can be found here.

An excerpt

…The number of sales tend to peak in the second quarter of each year. This is reflective of the spring selling season including demand generated from the early year Wall Street bonus season. However, the peak level of activity year to date occurred during the third quarter suggesting the seasonal housing cycle was pushed forward by three months. The unusually low level of sales activity in the first quarter of 2009 appeared to set the stage for a release of pentup demand later in the year. The summer surge in the number of sales was caused by a myriad of factors including mortgage rates at historic lows, the $8,000 first time buyer tax credit, increased affordability after the sharp correction in price levels, and continued evidence that the financial system was continuing to stabilize. In addition, a 24% jump in the Dow Jones Industrial Average over the past 6 months resulted in an improvement in consumer confidence. Still, unemployment remains elevated, employment in the financial services sector continues to decline and unusually restrictive mortgage underwriting remains in place. Therefore, this surge in the number of sales does not appear to indicate a housing market “bottom”, but rather provides some evidence that the housing market has “turned the corner”…

Download 3Q 2009 Manhattan Market Overview

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[Beached] 2Q 2009 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview Available For Download

July 23, 2009 | 12:05 am | | Reports |

The 2Q 2009 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman was released today.

Other reports we prepare can be found here.

The 2Q 2009 data and a series of updated charts are available.

Press coverage can be found here.

An excerpt

…There were 307 sales in the current quarter, 43.3% below the 541 sales in the prior year quarter but, 52.7% higher than the 201 sales in the prior quarter. The gain in the number of sales from the prior quarter was higher than seasonal norms, reflecting a release in pent-up demand from more limited sales activity at the end of 2008. Over the same period, the number of properties listed for sale continued to rise. Listing inventory totalled 2,286 properties, 23.6% higher than the 1,849 properties listed during the second quarter of 2008. The expansion of inventory was to be expected due to the decline in the number of sales. As a result of the rise in listing inventory and the decline in the number of sales, the monthly absorption rate—the number of months to sell all existing inventory at the current pace of sales—was 22.3 months, more than double the 10.3 month absorption rate average of the prior year quarter…

Download 2Q 2009 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview

UPDATE: Listen to the podcast

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[Going Long] 2Q 2009 Long Island Market Overview Available For Download

July 23, 2009 | 12:05 am | | Reports |

The 2Q 2009 Long Island Market Overview that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman was released today.

Other reports we prepare can be found here.

The 2Q 2009 data and a series of updated charts are available.

Press coverage can be found here.

An excerpt

…The number of sales fell 32.7% to 3,956 from 5,874 in the same period last year, but increased 37.7% from the prior quarter total of 2,872. The jump in number of sales was consistent with seasonal trends as this period has averaged a 35.4% increase in the prior 5 years. Seasonality in this market statistic is much more pronounced than in New York City, where the trend has been historically more moderate. The number of properties for sale peaked in the second quarter of 2008 at 26,145 properties. Listing inventory has fallen 10.2% from the peak to 23,485 properties, in contrast to the decline in the number of sales over the same period. The monthly absorption rate — the number of months it would take to sell all existing inventory at the current pace of sales — was 17.8 months, up from 13.4 months in the same period last year. Many sellers are opting to list properties when they determine the market has improved…

Download 2Q 2009 Long Island Market Overview

UPDATE: Listen to the podcast

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[It Was The World] 2Q 2009 Brooklyn Market Overview Available For Download

July 16, 2009 | 1:06 am | | Reports |

The 2Q 2009 Brooklyn Market Overview that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman was released today.

Other reports we prepare can be found here.

The 2Q 2009 data and a series of updated charts are available.

Press coverage can be found here.

An excerpt

…There were 1,428 sales in the second quarter, 29.7% below the 2,031 sales in the prior year quarter. Sales jumped, however, 20.4% from the prior quarter total of 1,186 sales, recovering a portion of the sharp decline in the prior quarter. The increase was greater than the normal seasonal change from first to second quarter, which has averaged 1.7% since 2003. There would appear to be a release in pent-up demand since change in the number of sales between the most recent fourth and first quarters fell 35.8% in contrast to a 5.8% average decline over the past six years. There were 6,330 properties listed for sale, up 4.9% from 6,037 units in the prior year quarter…..

Download 2Q 2009 Brooklyn Market Overview

UPDATE: Listen to the podcast


[For A Day] 2Q 2009 Queens Market Overview Available For Download

July 16, 2009 | 1:01 am | | Reports |

The 2Q 2009 Queens Market Overview that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman was released today.

Other reports we prepare can be found here.

The 2Q 2009 data and a series of updated charts are available.

Press coverage can be found here.

An excerpt

…The average sales price of a Queens property that closed during the quarter was $396,756, down 11.5% from the $448,397 average sales price during the same period last year. Following the same pattern, median sales price for the second quarter was $362,000, down 13.8% from the $420,000 median sales price during the same period last year. When breaking out the re-sale market from the new development market, the trend varies significantly. Re-sale properties reflected a 15.3% decline in median sales price to $350,000, from $413,400 during the same period in the prior year. In contrast, the median sales price for new development sales increased 19.4% to $507,447 from $424,866 in the prior year quarter. Since resale properties accounted for 95.3% of all sales in Queens in the quarter, the 4.7% market share of new development sales did not provide much upward skew to the overall price indicators. The average square footage of a new development was 945 square feet, compared to 1,747 square feet for re-sale properties….

Download 2Q 2009 Queens Market Overview

UPDATE: Listen to the podcast


[Inaugural] 2Q 2009 Manhattan Rental Market Overview Available For Download

July 9, 2009 | 10:49 am | | Reports |

The inaugural 2Q 2009 Manhattan Rental Market Overview that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman was released today.

Other reports we prepare can be found here.

The 2Q 2009 data will be available today. A designated chart section for Manhattan rentals is under development and hopefully ready later this month.

Press coverage can be found here.

An excerpt

…There were 2,346 rentals in the second quarter, down 58.3% from the 5,624 units of the same quarter last year, but up 2.4% from the 2,290 units in the prior quarter. Inventory increased 28.8% to 7,290 apartments from 5,658 in the prior year quarter, yet declined 3.1% from the 7,522 units in the prior quarter. Days on market nearly doubled to 83 days from 45 days and listing discount increased to 9.5% from 2.6%, both compared to the prior year quarter. There was a late quarter surge in rental activity in the quarter not attributable to seasonal trends. The month of June accounted for 46.3% of the total rentals for the quarter, while May accounted for 33.3% and April accounted for 20.4%. Last year at this time, each month saw a consistent number of rentals…

Download 2Q 2009 Manhattan Rental Market Overview


[Where Credit Is Due] 2Q 2009 Manhattan Market Overview Available For Download

July 2, 2009 | 12:28 pm | | Reports |

The 2Q 2009 Manhattan Market Overview that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman was released today.

Other reports we prepare can be found here.

The 2Q 2009 data and a series of updated charts will be available today.

Press coverage can be found here.

An excerpt

…The Manhattan market, as measured by the median sales price of re-sale apartments, fell 25.6% as compared to the same period last year. The overall number of sales were 50.3% below the same period last year as a result of the tightening of credit, rising unemployment and a recessionary economy. There was an uptick in the number of sales late in the quarter due to both seasonality and a release of some pent-up demand from the limited sales activity at the beginning of the year. More sellers adjusted to the market price correction of the fall as evidenced by the decline in listing discount to 7.8% from 12.4% in the prior quarter. Buyers took advantage of mortgage rates at historic lows and price declines were less pronounced at the lower end of the market where credit terms are less restrictive. Market share of new development unit sales fell to 27% of all sales, their lowest level in 18 months and tend to lag market conditions by more than a year. As a result, the influence of new development sales activity in skewing the overall market data was less pronounced in the current quarter than in the prior several years…

Download 2Q 2009 Manhattan Market Overview

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[Miller Cicero] 1Q 09 Manhattan Building Sales Report Is Available For Download

May 22, 2009 | 5:57 pm | Reports |

Our commercial advisory firm just released the Manhattan Building Sales Report prepared in conjunction with Massey Knakal, a leading commercial real estate brokerage firm.

My commercial valuation partner John Cicero, MAI in our firm Miller Cicero oversees the report preparation. The report is the only one of its kind that tracks cap rates, income multipliers, price per square foot and number of sales.

The format has changed to quarterly and the expanding series will be more borough-specific.

An excerpt:

The first quarter of 2009 property sales market in Manhattan is characterized by a dramatic slowdown in sales activity. This is the first period tracked that truly reflects the market mentality created in September 2008 with the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the federal bailouts of AIG, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the ensuing paralysis of the credit markets throughout the fall. (In contrast, our last market report for the second half of 2008 included numerous sales that were negotiated pre- September)…

Massey Knakal will distribute nearly 300,000 hard copies of the report over the next few months.

Massey Knakal Manhattan Building Sales Report [1Q09]

Report Methodology [Miller Cicero]


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[East End] 1Q 2009 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview Available For Download

April 23, 2009 | 1:06 am | | Reports |

The online version of the Prudential Douglas Elliman 1Q 2009 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview [Miller Samuel] is available for download. Sorry, but I was tardy posting this report to my site after the initial release and coverage.

I have been writing various incarnations of the New York regional market report series for Prudential Douglas Elliman since 1994. The President and CEO of Prudential Douglas Elliman, Dottie Herman, is a big believer in publishing market data to create more transparency for consumers in the markets her firm serves – Manhattan to Montauk.

To build Hamptons/North Fork custom data tables

To view Hamptons/North Fork charts

An excerpt

…There were 201 sales in the first quarter, down 49.8% from 400 sales in the same period last year and 72.9% from the same period five years ago, which had 742 sales. The number of sales dropped 44.6% from the prior quarter, which had a total of 363 sales. The slow down in activity is attributable to the credit crunch, employment and compensation concerns on Wall Street and recessionary economic conditions. As a result of the decline in the number of sales listing inventory expanded. There were 2,289 properties available for sale at the end of the first quarter, up 23.9% from 1,848 properties during the same period last year. The combination of rising inventory and declining sales resulted in a jump in the monthly absorption rate – the number of months to sell all existing inventory at the current pace of sales – to 34.2 months, from 13.9 months in the prior year quarter and up from 17.2 months in the prior quarter… on the high water mark set in their local market in the past few years, rather than in line with current conditions…

Download report: 1Q 2009 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview [pdf]


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1Q 2009 Long Island Market Overview Available For Download

April 23, 2009 | 1:01 am | | Reports |

The 1Q 2009 Long Island Market Overview that I author for Prudential Douglas Ellimanis available for download.

The President and CEO of Prudential Douglas Elliman, Dottie Herman, is a big believer in publishing market data to create more transparency for consumers in the market her firm serves – Manhattan to Montauk.

Other reports we prepare can be found here.

Customized tables for the 1Q 2009 Long Island data and a series of updated charts are available on our corporate site.

A report excerpt

…After peaking at 26,145 units in the second quarter of 2008, the number of listings has generally trended lower. There were 22,942 listings at the end of the first quarter, down 4.4% from 24,003 units in the same period last year. Listing inventory did rise 10.7% from the prior quarter, but this was a seasonal increase and lower than in four of the past five years during the same period. Inventory levels have been stabilizing over the past two years, however, the level of sales activity has been declining over the same period. There were 2,872 sales in the first quarter, 18.2% below the 3,513 sales of the same period a year ago. As a result, the monthly absorption – the number of months it would take to sell all existing inventory at the current pace of sales 9 was 24 months, up from 20.5 months in the same period last year…


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[Breukelen, Oy Vey] 1Q 2009 Brooklyn Market Overview Available For Download

April 16, 2009 | 1:34 am | | Reports |

The 1Q 2009 Brooklyn Market Overview that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman was released today.

Other reports we prepare can be found here.

The 1Q 2009 data and a series of updated charts are also available.

Press coverage can be found here.

An excerpt

…Unlike its Manhattan counterpart, the decline in price indicators in Brooklyn, specifically the resale median sales price, showed a more modest decline. The median sales price in Brooklyn this quarter for re-sale properties was $469,000, down 10.7% from $525,000 during the same period last year. Although new development sales tend to reflect the market of more than a year ago, they saw a similar decline in median sales price, down 10.9% to $498,937 from $560,112 in the prior year quarter. The decline in new development price trends was due to a shift in the mix to smaller units that happen to close during the first quarter. Market share of new development closings was 15.2% in the first quarter and was nearly unchanged from the 16.7% market share in the same period last year. The overall median sales price of a Brooklyn residential property was $474,600, down 12.1% from the market peak of $540,000 in the third quarter of 2007. The overall housing market in Brooklyn began to see price declines more than a year ahead of Manhattan, perhaps explaining why there was not a more significant price correction this quarter after the contraction in credit occurred last fall…

Download 1Q 2009 Brooklyn Market Overview


[Queens Sized Market] 1Q 2009 Queens Market Overview Available For Download

April 16, 2009 | 1:29 am | | Reports |

The 1Q 2009 Queens Market Overview that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman was released today.

Other reports we prepare can be found here.

The 1Q 2009 data and a series of updated charts are also available.

Press coverage can be found here.

An excerpt

…Although the number of properties available for sale declined 7% to 10,421 from 11,206 listings in the same period last year, inventory expanded 6.1% from the prior quarter total of 9,822. The rise in inventory levels from the prior quarter was the result of the sharp decline in the number of sales over the same period. There were 1,801 sales in the first quarter, down 52.2% from 3,771 sales in the same period last year and down 34.2% from 2,737 sales in the prior quarter. The number of sales tends to decline from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of any given year, however, the decline during this period of the year was more than twice the five year average of 12.6% and outside of the five year range of -9.3% to -16.4%. The weakening regional economy and credit crunch as restricted the level of sales activity in the Queens housing market. Sellers continue to price property “behind” the market. As a result, the absorption rate – the number of months it would take to sell off existing inventory at the current pace of sales – has more than doubled over the past year. The absorption rate was 17.4 months in the first quarter, up from 8.9 months in the same period last year, both well above the 6.8 monthly average of the past five years…

Download 1Q 2009 Queens Market Overview

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