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Infographics
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I’m liking the new goodies in the New York Times real estate section, especially this week, and not because the most recent market report on the Manhattan, Brooklyn and Queens rental market for Douglas Elliman was featured. No, really.
Tags: NYT Real Estate, Michael Kolomatsky
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Favorites
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The Bloomberg News story “Brooklyn Homes Sell at Record Pace in Outer-Borough Surge” was the 3rd most read story on the Bloomberg terminals world wide this afternoon.
Here’s the Douglas Elliman report.
The Brooklyn housing story in fact earned more reads than the Stanford Business School sex scandal, the Bill Gross $200M lawsuit against PIMCO and Deutsche Bank’s $7B loss this quarter.
After all, Brooklyn is now a global brand.
Tags: global, Bloomberg News, Oshrat Carmiel, Bloomberg Terminals, brand
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Reports
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We published a slew of research today for Douglas Elliman Real Estate:
Manhattan, Brooklyn & Queens Rentals
Manhattan Rentals – Median rental price increased year-over-year for the 18th consecutive month – Median rental price was third highest on record – Brisk employment growth and strong economic conditions kept upward pressure on rents – Mortgage lending conditions remained tight tipping would-be first-time buyers back into rental market – Strength at lower end of market remained as non-doorman rents rose faster than doorman rents – Luxury median rental price slipped, showing weakest conditions of all price segments – Inventory slipped and marketing time remained low, despite rise in vacancy rate
Brooklyn Rentals – Median rental price set a new record for third consecutive month – Median rental price exceeded the $3,000 threshold for first time – Landlord concessions remained at nominal level as inventory slipped – Rental price indicators moved higher across all size categories – Listing inventory as well as negotiability between landlords/tenants fell – Median Brooklyn rent was $288 less than Manhattan
Queens Rentals – Price indicators showed mixed results, suggesting general stability overall – Studios showed strong price growth as 1-bedrooms and 2-bedrooms were flat – New development market share comprised 30.2% of new rentals – Luxury market median price gain was modest, but exceeded the overall market – Median Queens rent was $362 less than Brooklyn and $650 less than Manhattan
Brooklyn Sales – Brooklyn median and average sales price set a new record – Brooklyn remains the only New York City borough with a median sales price above the pre-financial crisis high – Condo, co-op and 1-3 family properties set new median sales price record – Luxury housing prices followed overall market trend – Sales expanded as listing inventory declined, resulting in brisk market pace – Fastest marketing time in 8 years
Queens Sales – Queens median and average sales price set a new record – Condo median sales price set a record for second consecutive quarter – Co-op price indicators set new record – 1-3 Family price indicators set new record – Luxury price indicators set new record – Inventory declined as sales surged – Marketing time fell as negotiability expanded
Westchester County Sales (expanded) – Record number of sales for the quarter, based in historical back to 1981 – Fastest marketing time and least negotiability in the 5.5 years this metric has been measured – Listing inventory for all property types slipped from year ago levels – Absorption rate was fastest market pace in 15 years – Single family and condo median sales price indicated stability – Single family market share declined even though sales increased – Luxury price indicators slipped, out performed by overall market
Putnam/Dutchess County Sales (new)
Putnam County – Price trend indicators increased on a year over year basis – Listing inventory slipped as the number of sales surged – Based on absorption, the market pace was 17.2% faster than the year ago quarter – Marketing time and listing discount expanded despite faster market pace
Dutchess County – Price indicators suggested general stability – Single family prices edged higher as condo prices declined – The pace of the market slowed as sales declined and inventory expanded
Tags: median sales price, number of sales, median rental price, records
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Source: WSJ
Yesterday evening Josh Barbanel at WSJ posted a milestone piece on the current building boom: Construction in New York City Goes Through The Roof: New residential permits surge as developers rush to qualify for tax break
There has been an incredible surge in NYC residential building permits, the most in more than 50 years. It’s amazing to see the Brooklyn permit total nearly reach the total of remainder of the city tallied together.
New York City is entering what could be the biggest building boom in a generation, census figures show, as work gets under way on hundreds of residential projects in neighborhoods across the city. In the first six months of the year, developers received new residential building permits for 42,088 apartments and houses in the city, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, already more than in any full year since 1963, when nearly 50,000 permits were issued.
While permit numbers don’t translate directly to what will actually get built, it is clearly a sign of a significant pipeline in the making.
Reasons?
UPDATE – I neglected to be more clear and say that this surge will likely collapse in the near future, since the jump in permits is likely to be wildly exaggerated as a result of the first reason above.
Tags: Josh Barbanel, Building Permits, residential, 421-a, tax abatement
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Douglas Elliman published our research today covering Queens sales, Brooklyn sales Westchester/Putnam sales as well as the rental market for Manhattan Brooklyn & Queens. You can download the reports and more at Douglas Elliman’s market report page.
Like last week’s Manhattan report, there were lots of records set and it wasn’t simply the influence of high end sales – prices were up across the board in most markets.
Incidentally, the Bloomberg News article that covered record Queens condo sales was the second most emailed story world-wide. It stoked more interest than the finance crisis in Greece and the recent Chinese stock market gyrations. Apparently only “investors with satellites” was a more popular read.
Idea (?) for next quarter: Talk about drones and investors in the Queens housing market.
Tags: Greece, most emailed, Chinese stock market
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Charts
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[click to expand]
This infographic was part of an epic must-read Andrew Rice piece for New York Magazine called: The Red Hot Rubble of East New York which explores the gentrification frontier where investors and New York City’s efforts to create affordable housing are running headlong into each other.
As much as 10% of the property sales are flips and prices are up 150% over the past 2 years.
Tags: New York Magazine, Affordability, Gentrification, East New York, Bushwhack, flip, speculation
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TV, Videos
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Came into the city on the last day of 2014 to join Deirdre Bolton on her Fox Business show Risk & Reward to talk housing rents and 2015 with a dash of $50M+ sales in New York. Always fun.
Tags: Affordability, Risk & Reward, Deirdre Bolton
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It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.
Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedNY:
Before the tryptophan kicks in on Thursday, I thought I’d present the rental market trends for Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Queens coverage in another way. Because of seasonality, I tend to rely on median rental price compared to the same period a year ago. I applied a 90-day moving average as a trend line for each of the markets to help show where these markets seem to be headed…
[click to expand chart]
My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed:
Three Cents Worth: No Relief In Sight For New York Renters [Curbed]
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Hamptons
Tags: Three Cents Worth, 3CW, median rental price
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Columns
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It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.
Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedNY:
Although it has been a little more than a month since the third quarter ended, I thought I’d show that the average sales price of the five boroughs in aggregate broke the $1 million threshold for the first time, to a record $1,040,516…
[click to expand chart]
My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed:
How New York’s Average Sales Price Broke the $1 Million Mark [Curbed]
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Hamptons
Tags: Three Cents Worth, Curbed NY, 3CW, Bronx, Staten Island
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Charts
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Read my latest Bloomberg View column Only Brooklyn Is Over the City’s Housing Bust. Please join the conversation over at Bloomberg View. Here’s an excerpt…
Housing prices in four of New York’s five boroughs still haven’t reached their pre-crash highs. The outlier? Brooklyn.
Housing prices in Brooklyn now are more than 8 percent above the peak reached in 2007. The other four boroughs, meanwhile, are all more than 10 percent below their highs, with the Bronx still down by almost a quarter….
My Bloomberg View Column Directory
My Bloomberg View RSS feed.
Tags: median sales price, financial crisis
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Charts
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It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.
Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedNY:
Although our NYC market reports only cover Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Queens, I also track Staten Island and The Bronx for fun. For the second quarter 2014 NYC analysis, I observed two new records:
1. The average sales price for NYC residential real estate (co-ops, condos and 1-3 family sales) reached a record $975,441 (pink line).
2. The average sales price for NYC residential real estate excluding Manhattan reached a record $542,216 (orange line).
[click to expand charts]
My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed:
NYC Sets New Record Average Sales Price [Curbed]
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Hamptons
Tags: Three Cents Worth, Curbed NY, 3CW, Bronx, Staten Island
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Reports
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We’ve expanded the Elliman rental report to include Queens this month and added additional metrics for Manhattan and Brooklyn.
MANHATTAN
– Prices increased for 4th consecutive month after year end lull.
– Median rent is at highest point in more than 5 years.
– The vacancy rate was lowest June in 5 years.
– Use of concessions continued to fall, now at nominal levels.
– Marketing times and negotiability continued to fall.
– Luxury market outperformed the overall market.
BROOKLYN
[North, Northwest, East Regions]
– Median rental price up year over year for 13 consecutive months.
– Rents hovering near record highs but have remained stable since beginning of year.
– New rentals surged indicating resistance to price increases at time of renewal.
– Nominal use of concessions by landlords.
– Overall market outperformed luxury market, price growth stronger in smaller units.
– Manhattan-Brooklyn rental price gap remained at $500, more than the $210 record low in February but less than half of 2008 level.
QUEENS
[Northwest Region]
– Median rental price year-over-year slipped after 4 consecutive monthly increases.
– Shift in mix to smaller units (60.2% share of 1-bedrooms) pulling down overall prices.
– Nearly half of the rental stock is located in new development buildings.
– Overall market outperformed luxury market, price growth stronger in smaller units.
– Marketing time slipped as listing discount remained nominal.
The Elliman Report [Miller Samuel]
Miller Samuel Aggregate Database [Miller Samuel]
Chart Gallery [Miller Samuel]
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Jonathan Miller is President and CEO of Miller Samuel Inc., a real estate appraisal and consulting firm he co-founded in 1986. He is a state-certified real estate appraiser in New York and Connecticut, performing court testimony as an expert witness in various local, state, and federal courts. He holds the Counselors of Real Estate (CRE) designation, is an Appraiser “A” Member of the Real Estate Board of New York, and is a member of RAC.
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You'll be able to choose from an array of robust housing metrics compiled using research developed during the preparation of our market report series. Expanded significantly from prior offerings, use this resource to build charts and custom data tables or leverage your own information for more powerful research and presentations.
In the meantime, here is a small sample of the aggregated data we will provide.
Forbes ('20-)
Appraisersblogs ('17-)
'Three Cents Worth' column 3CW ('05-'16)
When Curbed was acquired by Vox, my eleven years of 3CW chart art and column links were broken on Curbed NY, Curbed DC, Curbed Miami, Curbed Hamptons, Curbed LA, and Curbed Ski.
Many of my 3CW charts can be found here:
Curbed 3CW Full Chart Archive
Op-ed column ('14-'15)
'Economic Spotlight column ('03-'09)
New York Times experiment ('08-09')
Huffington Post (09')
Favorite "How to Value" Posts
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