I joined Dennis Scully again on The Business of Home podcast: The Thursday Show: A real estate check-in with Jonathan Miller, why Gen Z loves dupes and more. A lot has happened since our previous conversation back in July 2022. Other than having quality issues with my microphone, I really enjoyed the conversation. It starts at the 25:22 mark.
[click on the image to play]
Tags: Podcast, Business of Home Podcast, Dennis Scully, Design, Interior Decorator
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Podcasts
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I had a nice chat with Vonnie Quinn of Bloomberg Television on Monday concerning the state of the Manhattan housing market, following a highly read Bloomberg article on the terminal covering our Elliman Report results for Q3-2019 as well as a followup on Bloomberg Radio here and here.
Tags: Bloomberg TV, Bloomberg Radio, Vonnie Quinn, Podcast, Elliman Report, Denise Pellegrini
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Podcasts
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Just before the holidays, I got to join Alanna Schubach and Nathan Tomey on their Brick Underground podcast to talk about 2018.
This podcast will always have a special meaning to me as our late friend Jhoanna Robledo‘s passion project.
The Brick Underground Podcast: Talking 2018 with NYC real estate appraiser Jonathan Miller.
Click on the graphic below to listen to 30 minutes of Brick talk.
Tags: Podcast, Nathan Tomey, Alanna Schubach, Brick Underground Podcast
Had a fun interview with Phil Crawford and his must listen weekly Voice of Appraisal talk show. I’ve set up a home button on my iPhone to grab each new interview. My only regret in life is not having Phil’s smooth silky radio voice. He provides a great service to the appraisal community.
Tags: Appraisal Management Companies, Podcast, AMC, Dodd-Frank, Voice of Appraisal, Phil Crawford
A few days ago I was interviewed by Christopher Eshleman at the Port Authority of New York & New Jersey. He works for Alexander Heil who is the chief economist and publishes a lot of great regional economic insights. Although this is a new effort, this was their first podcast conducted outside of the institution so I am deeply appreciative of the opportunity to share my views.
Christopher is a sharp guy and kept the conversation interesting (I even inserted a Jerry Seinfeld joke). It’s about a half an hour.
Check it out.
Tags: Podcast, Christopher Eshleman, Alexander Heil, transportation, Port Authority of New York & New Jersey
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Radio
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A while back I was interviewed by my friend Barry Ritholtz for his new radio show/podcast Masters in Business for Bloomberg. He is columnist for Bloomberg View and the Washington Post, founder/blogger at the Big Picture blog and is one of the smartest people (and definitely the best story teller), I’ve ever met.
I have been remiss in posting this on Matrix but had already sent it through all my social media channels a number of times earlier this month when the interview originally aired. It’s the end of 2014 and as one of my favorite interviews, it just needed to be on Matrix.
We cover a lot of ground on the housing market and it was fun and engaging. Our roles were reversed since he was one of my early interviews of my former podcast The Housing Helix from 2009-2012 where I interviewed about 150 people connected to housing and finance. Barry returned to my show 2 more times and each time made it one of the most heavily downloaded interviews of the year.
Please subscribe to his Masters in Business podcast on Bloomberg or listen to it live on Saturdays.
Tags: Barry Ritholtz, Podcast, Big Picture Blog, Masters in Business
Here’s a great conversation with the guest Paul Goldberger, Pulitzer Price winning architecture critic, former New York Times architecture critic and current Vanity Fair editor of his seminal piece on the Manhattan “Billionaires’ Row” phenomenon that is occurring around the world. His Vanity Fair piece provides a terrific visual summary and he provides a nice shout out to the “Bank Safety Deposit Box” analogy I like to use.
Tags: Podcast, WNYC, Vanity Fair, Paul Goldberger, Billionaires Row, Leonard Lopate Show
Dustin Luther scores a coup, getting the Lawrence Yun, controversial NAR Chief Economist, to be the guest on his 4Realz podcast conference call along with moi, Rhonda Porter and Jillayne Schlicke .
What’s just as interesting as the guest speakers is the chat room dialog during the discussions. It prompts Dustin’s questions and allows “murmuring” during each answer.
I got the feeling that everyone wanted to pounce on Larry but never did. Do I call him Larry? Dr. Yun? Mr. Yun? Larry was unfettered.
4realz Roundtable: Effect of FDIC/Treasury Actions on Home Buyers and Real Estate Industry
Of course I was a few minutes late to the call as is my tradition (sorry Dustin!).
Check out the discussion
Thanks again Dustin – see you in San Fran!
Tags: Lawrence Yun, FDIC, 4Realz, Podcast, Dustin Luther, Television
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Podcasts
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The Real Deal – The Real Deal Weekly Interview
I suggested to Amir Korangy of the Real Deal that he begin Podcasting since his publication would be a perfect candidate for it. The Real Deal has access to many interesting people and their content is always changing.
Not only did he look into this technology right away, but he asked me to be the guninea pig…errr…the first interviewee. 😉
From The Real Deal’s Web Site…
Jonathan Miller at The Real Deal Magazine’s first Podcast on July 15, 2005
In The Real Deal’s inaugural interview in its new weekly audiocast series, we sat down with appraiser Jonathan Miller, president of Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraisers and Consultants. Miller’s reports on the Manhattan apartment market are the most widely cited in the industry, and he has been featured in The New York Times, the New York Post and countless other publications including The Real Deal.With reports showing apartment prices hitting new peaks each quarter but often differing significantly in their findings we asked Miller how he collects his data, and his thoughts on the existence of a real estate bubble. To listen to the entire interview, click one of the links below.
[MP3 Version](/wp-content/The_Real_Deal_Podcast_1.mp3)
[Podcast (RSS) Version](http://www.audibletreats.com/download/podcast/TRD.xml)
excerpt…
THE REAL DEAL: Is there a housing bubble in New York?
MILLER: It’s interesting about the whole bubble psychology the boom and bust orientation in the real estate discussions that have been going on for the last three or four months. Especially because Manhattan is closely tied with the financial markets.
A lot of us remember what happened in ’87 with the stock market crash and subsequent real estate correction that we saw from about the end of ’89 to early ’95. So it is something that is fresh in everybody’s minds, and everybody is trying to relate that to the current experience that we are having now.
When I look at what happened then versus now, it’s apples and oranges, a very different experience. Back then we had a tax incentive-based supply-creation syndrome I made that up, but the idea is that housing came on in large quantities in the mid ’80s because of tax incentives. The 421a abatements gave the incentives to developers to throw foundations in the ground without even plans for what they were going to build just to get the tax credits.
Then all of a sudden in ’86 we had the change in the federal tax laws that eliminated the whole incentive for investors to buy individual units that created a lot of supply. And then we had the co-op conversion frenzy, in which seemingly every rental building that could have been converted was converted. I think the conversion pace today not including 2005, but up through the end of 2004 is something like 10 percent of what it was back then, but that’s largely inclusive of, say, lofts being gut renovated to condo as opposed to existing rental buildings.
As far as today, the situation is we have record low mortgage rates, which are really fueling a lot of the demand and we have an improving but very tepid economy. And we now have supply that is gaining momentum. Your magazine did a great study on the condo inventory that is coming online [in July 2005 issue].
TRD: Thank you.
MILLER: And it’s gaining speed. But it’s still about 3,000 units, give or take, and we have a condo universe of somewhere in the neighborhood of 65,000 to 85,000, depending on who you talk to. So it’s still relatively small. In prior years we were talking about 1,500 units coming online. So the pace is increasing but it’s another 1,500 units a year.
I think the two variables on whether we are going to go into a bubble real estate environment is going to be supply or mortgage rates. There are a lot of other things to look at, but those are two main things. Mortgage rates have been forecasted to increase since the end of 2003, and, generally speaking, they’ve been falling. So, in the equation of supply and demand, it has become a constant.
TRD: Brooklyn has become such a great place for developers to go to because there are so many available lots.
MILLER: For those new developments to come in and be viable they are getting $700 a foot. In Manhattan now, the threshold seems to be you have to be at least at 1,000, and more likely on the new developments you’re talking $1,500.
TRD: If you saw a new development at $1,000 per square foot, would you jump on that and say, “Hey, that’s a bargain?”
MILLER: I guess it’s personal preference. You have to decide whether you like the neighborhood. I’ve always felt the reason why [a neighborhood is] cheaper than a Soho and Tribeca is because it’s not proven as yet for that price structure. So you are going to see more price volatility if you have some sort of market downturn meaning that there is a lot of upside and there’s potential downside.
However, the thing about housing which is very different than stocks, is that, for example, the FDIC defines a housing boom as three years and 30 percent appreciation, and a bust is five years and 15 percent depreciation.
TRD: And how does that compare to our market now?
MILLER: On the upside, we’re about double what their boom figure is. But it’s sort of that idea that on a down cycle, prices tend to be sticky on the downside, that it’s still an asset that’s useable. Real estate is a cyclical thing.
We’ve just seen a lot of the upside over the last five to seven years.
Tags: FDIC, Podcast, Amir Korangy
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Jonathan Miller is President and CEO of Miller Samuel Inc., a real estate appraisal and consulting firm he co-founded in 1986. He is a state-certified real estate appraiser in New York and Connecticut, performing court testimony as an expert witness in various local, state, and federal courts. He holds the Counselors of Real Estate (CRE) designation, is an Appraiser “A” Member of the Real Estate Board of New York, and is a member of RAC.
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In the meantime, here is a small sample of the aggregated data we will provide.
Forbes ('20-)
Appraisersblogs ('17-)
'Three Cents Worth' column 3CW ('05-'16)
When Curbed was acquired by Vox, my eleven years of 3CW chart art and column links were broken on Curbed NY, Curbed DC, Curbed Miami, Curbed Hamptons, Curbed LA, and Curbed Ski.
Many of my 3CW charts can be found here:
Curbed 3CW Full Chart Archive
Op-ed column ('14-'15)
'Economic Spotlight column ('03-'09)
New York Times experiment ('08-09')
Huffington Post (09')
Favorite "How to Value" Posts
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