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Fed Charts: How are the Housing Fundamentals Doing?

by Jonathan Miller | @jonathanmiller
July 13, 2015 | 11:22 am | |
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Charts, Maps, Images, Infographics, Video Economy Federal Reserve Bank Federal Reserve, New York

The New York Fed just put out an economic recap of the U.S. economy that is chock full of charts and data.

NYC employment growth is strong…

7-13-2015NYFedregionalempl

But nationally, unemployment is falling but those being counted on the roles are falling…

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Housing starts have ramped up but most is multi-family – driven by freakin’ high rents.

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New single family home sales are lagging existing home sales (see chart above)…

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And we wonder why the economy doesn’t feels so good…anemic wage growth…

7-13-2015hourlywageNYFED

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Bloomberg View Column: House Rich, Land Poor

by Jonathan Miller | @jonathanmiller
April 26, 2015 | 11:41 am | | Charts |
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Bloomberg View Amenities, Adjustments & Value Logic Charts, Maps, Images, Infographics, Video Housing Trends & Cycles

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Read my latest Bloomberg View column House Rich, Land Poor.

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Here’s an excerpt…

The living space in newly built U.S. homes is on a tear: Since 1982, the size of a new single-family house has increased by almost 1,000 square feet — which was the size of the average U.S. house in 1950…

[read more]

The trend continued after a brief interruption during the early days of the financial crisis…

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Bloomberg View Column: Income Inequality Hits the Housing Market

by Jonathan Miller | @jonathanmiller
March 15, 2015 | 6:27 pm | | Charts |
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Bloomberg View Affordability, Affordable Housing Charts, Maps, Images, Infographics, Video Credit, Finance, Mortgage, Rates Distressed Housing Housing Trends & Cycles Luxury, Super, Ultra, Mega

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Read my latest Bloomberg View column Income Inequality Hits the Housing Market.

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This article turned out to be my most-commented on piece so far. The topic of affordability generates a hotbed of conversation.

Here’s an excerpt…

There’s been plenty of talk recently about signs of recovery in the housing market. Rather than think about housing as a single market, it might be helpful to look at housing as many markets based on everything from geography to price to new versus existing…

[read more]

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Bloomberg View Column: Housing’s New Wealth Effect

by Jonathan Miller | @jonathanmiller
September 27, 2014 | 1:00 pm | | Charts |
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Bloomberg View Affordability, Affordable Housing Blogging Off The Matrix Credit, Finance, Mortgage, Rates Development, Construction, Architecture & Land Luxury, Super, Ultra, Mega

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Read my latest Bloomberg View column Housing’s New Wealth Effect. Please join the conversation over at Bloomberg View. Here’s an excerpt…

It was a busy week for housing market reports. The U.S. Census published its new home-sales results for August, showing an 18 percent gain from the prior month and a 33 percent increase from August 2013. News headlines relied on words such as “surged” and “soared” to describe the results.

Only a few days earlier, the National Association of Realtors released its existing home-sales report for August, which showed month-over-month sales falling for the first time in four months. The inventory of unsold properties was 4.5 percent higher than a year earlier. I recently addressed the market slowdown in “Understanding Housing’s Dog Days.”

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Bloomberg Surveillance TV – Guest Host 6-25-14

by Jonathan Miller | @jonathanmiller
June 25, 2014 | 8:30 am | | TV, Videos |
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Manhattan New York City Bloomberg News Housing Indices & Portals Media Market Reports


UPDATE: above clip just added – expanded conversation.

Got to guest host an hour (6am to 7am) of Bloomberg Television’s Surveillance with Tom Keene, Scarlett Fu and Adam Johnson to talk housing. The above is just a couple of minutes of the hour (yes, you’re spared). We spoke about Case Shiller, New Home Sales, biting in World Cup Soccer, my fireman son using a GoPro in fires and LeBron/Carmelo’s real worth among other things. Like I said, we did talk housing.

Adam brought up a great point – while the economy is always characterized as 70% consumer driven, 16% of that is actually health care spending so the overall number is really 54%.

Very smart conversations (the topic of biting included). Always fun to join them.

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[WSJ] Good Overview on 2014 US Housing Expectations – Jed Kolko, Trulia

by Jonathan Miller | @jonathanmiller
February 26, 2014 | 12:32 pm | |
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Wall Street Journal Housing Trends & Cycles Language, Jargon & Quotes Market Reports Trulia

Jed Kolko does a nice job summarizing what the general housing market may look like in 2014 after the new home sales report came out today.

My big takeaway was that any housing market improvement will be more affected by local job and income growth rather than the “rebound effect.” This phenomena occurred in markets that were hit hardest by the downturn, yet saw the largest price increases.

I’ve added “rebound effect” to my 2014 phrase list, right after “polar vortex.”

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[New Home Sales] Up 9.6% – New Is Better Too?

by Jonathan Miller | @jonathanmiller
August 27, 2009 | 1:40 pm | |
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New York Times Government, Politics, Regulations & Policy Market Reports Statistics, Metrics & Data

Here’s the meat from the commerce department’s July new residential sales report released yesterday.

Sales of new one-family houses in July 2009 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 433,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 9.6 percent (±13.4%)* above the revised June rate of 395,000, but is 13.4 percent (±12.9%) below the July 2008 estimate of 500,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in July 2009 was $210,100; the average sales price was $269,200. The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of July was 271,000. This represents a supply of 7.5 months at the current sales rate.

Inventory has fallen to 7.5 months from 12.4 months earlier this year because builders simply aren’t building. The general thinking is that the tax credit and low rates have helped move properties more than they would have otherwise. However, distressed property sales are now competing with new construction and credit remains tight.

The number of new properties available for sale is the lowest it has been since 1993.

Sales picked up in three out of the nation’s four geographic areas, with a sizeable gain of 16.2 percent in the South, the nation’s largest-selling region, which includes the Washington area. Sales fell only in the Midwest, by 7.6 percent.


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About Jonathan Miller

Jonathan Miller is President and CEO of Miller Samuel Inc., a real estate appraisal and consulting firm he co-founded in 1986. He is a state-certified real estate appraiser in New York and Connecticut, performing court testimony as an expert witness in various local, state and federal courts. He holds the Counselors of Real Estate (CRE) and Certified Relocation Professional (CRP) designations. He is an Appraiser “A” Member of the Real Estate Board of New York and a member of Relocation Appraisers and Consultants, Inc.
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On Friday morning, I was one of five expert witnesses (and the only as an appraiser) to testify on the topic of appraisal bias in front of the Appraisal Subcommittee (ASC). The witnesses waited together in the green room, plus… Read More

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