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Just before I stepped on the set, I got to look at the Bloomberg file photo taken at my office about 15 years ago (I think I’ve aged gracefully) but I was also called out for it.
Was the last time you were on Bloomberg Markets 1995? That headshot…— Hiten Samtani (@hitsamty) January 17, 2019
Here’s the interview along with a cameo by Sam Zell, lol!
Tags: Bloomberg TV, Scarlet Fu, Bloomberg Markets, Caroline Hyde
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Milestones
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I had a nice reflective discussion with Scarlet Fu and Caroline Hyde, reflecting on two milestones in New York City – 9/11 and the financial crisis.
Miller Samuel CEO Says Credit Conditions Haven’t Normalized Since Lehman
September 11th, 2018, 3:48 PM EDT
Jonathan Miller, president and chief executive officer of Miller Samuel Inc., takes a look at the state of the U.S. housing market 10 years after the financial crisis of 2008. He speaks with Bloomberg’s Caroline Hyde and Scarlet Fu on “Bloomberg Markets: The Close.” (Source: Bloomberg)
Tags: Bloomberg TV, Scarlet Fu, Manhattan, Bloomberg Markets, Caroline Hyde
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TV, Videos
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I had a fun conversation on Bloomberg Television with Scarlet Fu, Joe Weisenthal and Julia Chatterley. We were discussing the results of our research behind the Elliman Report: Manhattan Sales 3Q17 that was just released. Here is the Bloomberg story on the report results.
Here’s a portion of the interview.
If you’d like to see the whole segment, my interview starts at the 48:40 mark although I really like the format and the hosts so you might want to watch the whole show.
Tags: Scarlet Fu, Joe Weisenthal, Julia Chatterley
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TV, Videos
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Had a nice chat with Scarlet Fu and Matt Miller on Bloomberg TV, to discuss our 3Q2016 report on the Manhattan residential sales market that I author for Douglas Elliman. We referred to Oshrat Carmiel’s Bloomberg News story on the Manhattan housing market that went viral on the Bloomberg Terminals as the number one read story world wide and the story chart made their “Chart of the Hour” on their home page.
Tags: Bloomberg TV, Scarlet Fu, Matt Miller, Douglas
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TV, Videos
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Was asked to guest host this morning for the 7-8am hour on Bloomberg TV’s Surveillance. Tom Keene, Scarlet Fu and Adam Johnson team up for a must-watch show every morning.
In the first clip we talk Manhattan Luxury market problems and records. In the second clip we banter about the bendable iPhone Plus and housing as an investment. These two articles likely prompted my invite:
NYC Luxury-Condo Buyers Await New Towers as Sales Slow [Bloomberg News]
NYC’s Most Expensive Condo to Be Listed at $130 Million [Bloomberg News]
Tags: Tom Keene, Bloomberg TV, Scarlet Fu, Bloomberg Surveillance, Adam Johnson, iPhone, Apple, Stocks
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Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics as a guest on Bloomberg Television points out some key issues relating to housing and the economy. It’s a great quick overview on how housing fits into the economic recovery equation. So much for a “soft handoff,” the idea of the housing moving from dependency on low mortgage rate to thriving on a stronger economy. The ideas being projected here are that the economy may improve without housing’s help.
“It is not quite as important as the fed seems to think.” “I sometimes say the fed is almost as obsessed with housing as the labor market.”
“I’m not convinced it is absolutely essential that housing keeps charging upwards in order for the rest of the economy to grow.”
“It’s a relatively small share of gdp now in terms of housing construction and even when you add in the retail stuff related to housing.”
“It is important to sentiment.”
“They were ready to dismiss it as something temporary and clearly the worries are more deeper.”
“Mortgage rates, if they rise further as the economy picks up, housing will be under further pressure.”
“It is a paradox that the stronger the rest of the economy gets and the more worried the market gets about the fed raising rates, the higher 10 year yields will go and mortgage rates and potentially the housing market will get weaker.”
“This is a three or four year process to get back to normal.”
“Housing unfortunately will be a necessary casualty.”
“My guess is that that’s the way the fed’s thinking evolves great if we see the economy strengthening brother that housing is weakening, i think they will have to live with that and stand up and say it’s a price we have to pay in order to get the rest of the economy moving.”
Tags: Tom Keene, Bloomberg TV, Scarlet Fu, Bloomberg Surveillance, Adam Johnson, Ian Shepherdson
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TV, Videos
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Had a great conversation with Tom Keene, Scarlet Fu, Olivia Sterns and guest host Strategas Research Chief Investment Strategist Jason Trennert about the US housing market. We also dabbled a bit in Brooklyn and Manhattan rents and talked NCAA March Madness picks. Always fun to come in and join the Surveillance team.
Go MSU Spartans! Go State!
Tags: Tom Keene, Bloomberg TV, Scarlet Fu, Bloomberg Surveillance, Olivia Sterns, Jason Trennert
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TV, Videos
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Always fun (and refreshing) to talk housing with Tom Keene, Sara Eisen and Scarlet Fu on Bloomberg TV’s Surveillance. I always watch or listen to the show on their apps as part of my morning routine. Got to meet and hear great insights from Jim O’Neill, Bloomberg View columnist and former chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management as well.
Did I tell you I am still the mayor of the Bloomberg Cafeteria on Foursquare?
Tags: Case-Shiller, Tom Keene, Sara Eisen, Bloomberg TV, Scarlet Fu, Bloomberg Surveillance, Goldman Sachs, Television, Housing Prices
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TV, Videos
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I joined Erik Schatzker and Scarlet Fu to talk about our new market research piece released today covering the 2Q13 Manhattan sales market that we prepare for Douglas Elliman.
The Bloomberg TV long interview format is absolutely fantastic.
Tags: Bloomberg TV, Scarlet Fu, Market Makers, Erik Schatzker, Television
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Public
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Had a great visit with Tom Keene this morning on Bloomberg TV’s Surveillance along with Scarlet Fu and Sara Eisen. It was simulcast on Bloomberg Radio.
Also in studio was James Lockhart, vice chairman of WL Ross & Co., formerly the head of GSE regulator FHFA. We were also joined by Nicolas Retsinas, a senior lecturer in real estate at Harvard Business School who called in – he has been on my old podcast a few times. Both provided great insight to the housing narrative.
Here’s the second clip from the same session. My basic premise is that while new home sales are rising, it will not be enough to address the collapse of listing inventory which will drive housing prices higher in the US. Hint: It’s mostly about tight credit. Housing is local and credit is national.
Tags: Tom Keene, Sara Eisen, Scarlet Fu, Bloomberg Surveillance, FHFA, Nicolas Retsinas, James Lockhart, GSE, Radio
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Public
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Very much enjoyed my conversation with Tom Keene and Scarlet Fu on Bloomberg Television’s Surveillance.
Scratch notes before my appearance:
Some thoughts about the Fed’s QE3 as it relates to housing (Einstein defines insanity as doing something for a 3rd time hoping it works).
-Focus of QE3 seems to be housing, but it shows how little Fed understands housing since this seems to be an effort to press borrowing costs lower.
-Falling rates until now have increased affordability 15% this year but reaction in sales is less. A diminishing return for this action. Yes it temporarily helps but is more akin to the 2010 tax credit – remove it and consumers stop buying.
-Fed must believe recent “happy housing news” isn’t sustainable. Prices and sale generally showing improvement.
-Banks prob won’t drop rates all that much-could even see a slight increase in short term: admin backlog from existing business, guarantee fees by Fannie Mae to kick in a few months and spreads already low. This action provides little traction.
-QE3 doesn’t address THE REAL PROBLEM – mortgage underwriting remains irrationally tight. Smaller universe qualifies for mortgaged and a large number of contracts fall through – approx 15%.
-Telegraphing low rates through 2015 eliminates any urgency for consumers to take action. National volume up YOY but 2011 was the aftermath of 2010 tax credit so comparing against low.
Bernanke’s Speech on QE3 [MarketPlace.org]
Benanke Statement on QE3 [Federal Reserve]
QE3: What is quantitative easing? And will it help the economy? [WaPo Wonk Blog]
Fed’s Evans Says QE3 Will Make Economy More Resilient [Bloomberg]
Low Rates Not Improving Housing Market, Miller Says [Bloomberg Surveillance TV]
Tags: Tom Keene, Scarlet Fu, Bloomberg Surveillance, Fannie Mae, Television, Ben Bernanke
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Jonathan Miller is President and CEO of Miller Samuel Inc., a real estate appraisal and consulting firm he co-founded in 1986. He is a state-certified real estate appraiser in New York and Connecticut, performing court testimony as an expert witness in various local, state, and federal courts. He holds the Counselors of Real Estate (CRE) designation, is an Appraiser “A” Member of the Real Estate Board of New York, and is a member of RAC.
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Forbes ('20-)
Appraisersblogs ('17-)
'Three Cents Worth' column 3CW ('05-'16)
When Curbed was acquired by Vox, my eleven years of 3CW chart art and column links were broken on Curbed NY, Curbed DC, Curbed Miami, Curbed Hamptons, Curbed LA, and Curbed Ski.
Many of my 3CW charts can be found here:
Curbed 3CW Full Chart Archive
Op-ed column ('14-'15)
'Economic Spotlight column ('03-'09)
New York Times experiment ('08-09')
Huffington Post (09')
Favorite "How to Value" Posts
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