Bloomberg View Column: Buying Condos Based on a Drawing

October 30, 2014 | 4:22 pm | | Charts |

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Read my latest Bloomberg View column Buying Condos Based on a Drawing. Please join the conversation over at Bloomberg View. Here’s an excerpt…

Almost half of all contracts for Manhattan properties costing $4 million or more are being signed based on floor plans — an architectural drawing of an apartment that hasn’t been built yet…

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Bloomberg View Column: Credit Crunch Lives on in Housing

October 22, 2014 | 5:05 pm | | Charts |

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Read my latest Bloomberg View column Credit Crunch Lives on in Housing. Please join the conversation over at Bloomberg View. Here’s an excerpt…

Don’t be fooled by low mortgages rates, which once again are below 4 percent: Credit for buying a home or refinancing an existing mortgage has almost never been tougher to get.

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Bloomberg View Column: Rent Control’s Winners and Losers

October 21, 2014 | 3:31 pm | | Charts |

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Read my latest Bloomberg View column Rent Control’s Winners and Losers. Please join the conversation over at Bloomberg View. Here’s an excerpt…

Any renter in New York City has probably has felt the pain of coming up with the monthly payment. There are plenty of reasons for the city’s steep rents…

..So what would happen if rent control and its cousin, rent stabilization, disappeared overnight?

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Bloomberg View Column: Only Brooklyn Is Over the City’s Housing Bust

October 13, 2014 | 2:32 pm | | Charts |

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Read my latest Bloomberg View column Only Brooklyn Is Over the City’s Housing Bust. Please join the conversation over at Bloomberg View. Here’s an excerpt…

Housing prices in four of New York’s five boroughs still haven’t reached their pre-crash highs. The outlier? Brooklyn.

Housing prices in Brooklyn now are more than 8 percent above the peak reached in 2007. The other four boroughs, meanwhile, are all more than 10 percent below their highs, with the Bronx still down by almost a quarter….

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[Manhattan Absorption] September 2014 – While All Markets Cool, Sub $3M Remains Brisk

October 4, 2014 | 3:27 pm | Charts |

9-2014Manhattan [click to expand]

Thoughts A noticeable downshift from last year yet the market remains brisk. Nearly all price segments are showing slower absorption rates with more weakness seen above the $3M threshold (roughly where the luxury market begins i.e. top 10%).

Side by side Manhattan regional comparison:

September 2014 v September 2013
9-201409-2013 [click images to expand]

I started this analysis in August 2009 so I am able to show side-by side year-over-year comparisons. (I got tired of the red/gray look in 9-2014 so I changed it) The blue/red line shows the 10-year quarterly average for context. The pink/orange line represents the overall average absorption rate of the most recently completed month for that market area. 

Definition Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart is: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the current annualized pace of sales activity in our market report series.


Manhattan Market Absorption Charts [Miller Samuel]

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Bloomberg View Column: When $7 Million Is Average for Manhattan

October 3, 2014 | 12:05 pm | | Charts |

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Read my latest Bloomberg View column When $7 Million Is Average for Manhattan. Please join the conversation over at Bloomberg View. Here’s an excerpt…

It’s pretty much universal knowledge that Manhattan real estate is expensive. What isn’t so well known is what’s happening at the top of the market: Price increases have been crazy.

Ever since the financial crisis, housing prices for the most-expensive 10 percent of the Manhattan market have increased more than 15 percent. Compare that with the modest 2.5 percent gain for the remaining 90 percent of the market….

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Bloomberg View Column: Giant Condo Tower Needs More Billionaires

September 29, 2014 | 2:26 pm | | Charts |

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Read my latest Bloomberg View column Giant Condo Tower Needs More Billionaires. Please join the conversation over at Bloomberg View. Here’s an excerpt…

In post-crash Manhattan’s high-end real estate, few projects loom larger or more visibly than the 1,004-foot-high One57, the tallest residential-hotel building in New York. This is a rarefied market, with two penthouse units selling for more than $90 million each, including one to hedge-fund baron Bill Ackman.

Amid all the hyperventilating about the tower, including complaints that it’s out of scale with the neighborhood, it’s poorly reviewed design and that it casts an afternoon shadow on Central Park in the winter, the little known fact is that the 92-unit building seems to be less of a hit with buyers than one might glean from the PR machine….

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Bloomberg View Column: Housing’s New Wealth Effect

September 27, 2014 | 1:00 pm | | Charts |

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Read my latest Bloomberg View column Housing’s New Wealth Effect. Please join the conversation over at Bloomberg View. Here’s an excerpt…

It was a busy week for housing market reports. The U.S. Census published its new home-sales results for August, showing an 18 percent gain from the prior month and a 33 percent increase from August 2013. News headlines relied on words such as “surged” and “soared” to describe the results.

Only a few days earlier, the National Association of Realtors released its existing home-sales report for August, which showed month-over-month sales falling for the first time in four months. The inventory of unsold properties was 4.5 percent higher than a year earlier. I recently addressed the market slowdown in “Understanding Housing’s Dog Days.”

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Bloomberg View Column: Guess What’s Holding Back Housing

September 27, 2014 | 12:54 pm | | Charts |

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Read my latest Bloomberg View column Guess What’s Holding Back Housing. Please join the conversation over at Bloomberg View. Here’s an excerpt…

During the U.S. housing boom, real-estate appraisers acted like deal-enablers rather than valuation experts. Indeed, inflated appraisals were a key ingredient in the erosion of mortgage-lending standards that led to the housing bust. Now we are seeing the opposite — low appraisals — with unwelcome consequences for the housing market.

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Bloomberg View Column: What Does It Mean When a House Sells for $50 Million?

September 17, 2014 | 2:58 pm | | Articles |

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Read my latest Bloomberg View column What Does It Mean When a House Sells for $50 Million?. Please join the conversation over at Bloomberg View. Here’s an excerpt…

One of the byproducts of the global financial crisis has been the creation of a new class of housing and buyers. Some of the strongest evidence is the rise in the number of residences sold for more than $50 million. A buyer recently paid a record $71.3 million for a Manhattan co-op, breaking the $70 million record set only a few months earlier. These sales seem modest compared with a $147 million sale in East Hampton, New York, and a $120 million sale in Greenwich, Connecticut, the two highest U.S. residential transactions in 2014. There have been six sales of more than $100 million in the past four years, with more likely to come…

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BV9-17-14$50Mtable
[click to expand]


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[Manhattan Absorption] August 2014 The $3M-$5M Market Slows Down

September 13, 2014 | 6:15 pm | Charts |

8-2014Manhattan [click to expand]

Thoughts Not a big difference from last year. Sub-$3M is generally very tight with not much variation between price categories in each region. There isn’t much difference in the $10M+ market. Condos are slower than co-ops overall, but not by much. The difference is being seen in the $5M to $10M, which is moving more slowly moving than it was a year ago.

Side by side Manhattan regional comparison:

August 2014 v 2013
8-201408-2013 [click images to expand]

I started this analysis in August 2009 so I am able to show side-by side year-over-year comparisons. (I got tired of the red/gray look in 9-2014 so I changed it) The blue/red line shows the 10-year quarterly average for context. The pink/orange line represents the overall average absorption rate of the most recently completed month for that market area. 

Definition Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart is: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the current annualized pace of sales activity in our market report series.


Manhattan Market Absorption Charts [Miller Samuel]

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Bloomberg View Column: Understanding Housing’s Dog Days

August 31, 2014 | 5:04 pm | | Charts |

BVlogoThe comparison of housing market statistics against last year’s results produced misdirection in our understanding of it’s current state. Although a year-over-year comparison gets rid of seasonality, the results are at the mercy of how normal the prior year was…

The slowdown in the U.S. housing market has caused much hand-wringing. But keep this in mind: robust housing sales and price gains in 2013 were the anomaly and at odds with tepid economic fundamentals such as income, employment and credit. It’s the year-over-year comparisons that make things look worse than they are.

Read my latest Bloomberg View column
Understanding Housing’s Dog Days.
Please join the conversation over at Bloomberg View.


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