I was interviewed for the U.S. version of one of China’s largest TV networks – CGTN America (formerly CCTV) on the state of the Manhattan luxury housing market and that $238 million condo sale that set the U.S. price record at 220 Central Park South.
Yes, it’s the real estate topic that won’t die.
Tags: 220 Central Park South, Luxury, Ken Griffin, $238 million, CGTN America, Karina Huber, Donna Olshan
With all the hubbub about the new Manhattan residential price record of $238 million and potential ramifications, I wanted to create a chart to give readers a sense of how disconnected this sale is from the prior records, and from housing prices for mere mortals in already one of the highest priced housing markets in the U.S.
I have done this before, first in 2012 when the famed $88 million penthouse sale at 15 Central Park West launched the global “super luxury” “aspirational pricing” phenomenon and the subsequent 2014 Michael Dell penthouse sale at One57 of $100.5 million.
But this time, given that this new sale would require a chart that was more than double the height of the 2014 chart, I could not find an affordable graphics app that could capture my Excel chart but create an image (png, jpg, etc.) with small enough resolution to be legible, yet still be small enough in size to be accepted by WordPress.
My solution? Make a screencast video.
To watch this, first, pack a lunch. Then, click here or on the snapshots below of the top and bottom segments of the tall chart to play the video.
Then relax and watch me start scrolling. It provides some useful context and is pretty cool despite the poor audio quality:
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Tags: tallest chart, Ken Griffin, $238 million
As coined in a Bloomberg article about hedge funder Ken Griffin’s $238 million condo purchase in Manhattan, a “vertical travel” is something many New Yorkers do every day – I’ve just never heard it described that way (following bold is my emphasis).
Citadel has signed a lease to anchor a skyscraper at 425 Park Avenue, eight-tenths of a mile from Griffin’s new apartment, not including vertical travel.
When Ken Griffin travels from his new penthouse to his office, I imagine his commute, that includes “vertical travel,” looks like this (bold is my emphasis):
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Just before I stepped on the set, I got to look at the Bloomberg file photo taken at my office about 15 years ago (I think I’ve aged gracefully) but I was also called out for it.
Was the last time you were on Bloomberg Markets 1995? That headshot…— Hiten Samtani (@hitsamty) January 17, 2019
Here’s the interview along with a cameo by Sam Zell, lol!
Tags: Bloomberg TV, Scarlet Fu, Bloomberg Markets, Caroline Hyde
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TV, Videos
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I was invited by Julie Hyman at Yahoo Finance TV for a discussion on the weakening luxury housing market and some other topics of interest. I’ve known her for years, after a long run at Bloomberg TV, and am excited about her new opportunity at Yahoo.
When I arrived at the studio, the stock market was being battered (down by over 400 points at the time of this broadcast) by the conflicting interpretations of the recent US/China tariff talks and the results Toll Brothers analyst call. It was exciting to be there during the perfect storm. The conversation shifted from what I was invited to cover, to the developing news story.
Yahoo is ramping up live coverage in early 2019 via 100% internet. Judging by their super cool/huge studio and throngs of people working there, Verizon seems very serious about their investment.
Tags: Yahoo! Finance, Luxury, Julie Hyman, Toll Brothers, Adam Shapiro
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Milestones
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I had a nice reflective discussion with Scarlet Fu and Caroline Hyde, reflecting on two milestones in New York City – 9/11 and the financial crisis.
Miller Samuel CEO Says Credit Conditions Haven’t Normalized Since Lehman
September 11th, 2018, 3:48 PM EDT
Jonathan Miller, president and chief executive officer of Miller Samuel Inc., takes a look at the state of the U.S. housing market 10 years after the financial crisis of 2008. He speaks with Bloomberg’s Caroline Hyde and Scarlet Fu on “Bloomberg Markets: The Close.” (Source: Bloomberg)
Tags: Bloomberg TV, Scarlet Fu, Manhattan, Bloomberg Markets, Caroline Hyde
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TV, Videos
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CNBC clip
NYC luxury apartment sales drop from CNBC.
PBS Nightly Business Report clip
[Story with 2 clips begins at 18:20]
CNBC’s Diana Olick reports on luxury home sales dropping in NYC due to tax laws and fewer international buyers.
It is past the middle of August so it was odd to see that the Wall Street Journal ran a story that covered a new “half-year” report by a brokerage firm on the Manhattan luxury market from January 2018 to June 2018. But it was a good story nevertheless.
Almost two months had passed since that reporting period so CNBC reached out to me in response to talk about our already released first and second quarter Elliman Reports, as a segway to the luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers record earnings release.
More importantly, I didn’t wear a tie at the 30Rock studio interview. Hey, it’s summer.
Tags: Diana Olick, Sales, CNBC, Nightly Business Report, Elliman Report, Douglas Elliman, Luxury, NBR
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Articles
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For those of you that read my weekly Housing Notes, you’ll know I refer to 2014 as “Peak New Development” for the Manhattan housing market. “Peak Luxury” works as a label too.
Bloomberg news broke the story that a $50M+ condo purchased in 2014 just sold at a foreclosure auction for $36,000,0000. There were five bidders. It’s been the fourth resale since the market peaked and the sixth overall – so I created a graphic of all the resales to show how they fared before and after the 2014 “peak.”
The Bloomberg story (that I got to chime in on) lays out the details of the One57 auction sale: One57 Foreclosure Shatters Price Dreams at Billionaires’ Tower
The story reached #1 as the most read on the 350k± Bloomberg Terminals worldwide yesterday.
It is important to remember that there are still a fair amount of units remaining that are priced at 2014 levels. Extell, the developer, has their work cut out for them to compete with current market conditions.
While One57 is a symbolic poster child for the new dev phenomenon, it is not a proxy for the entire new development market. Some projects were priced more reasonably at the peak, hence they haven’t fallen as much. In addition, the quality and design of each project can vary greatly. One thing is clear – since the 2014 peak, investors don’t have the same potential for big and fast returns on flips – their initial strategy was to buy early and realize instant equity as the sponsor increased the offering prices. That scenario no longer applies. Since the market has more choices for buyers now than it did back during peak, One57 is no longer seen as a “new” building like it was back then.
CNBC picked up the story – My firm and I get a shoutout during the conversation on Sqawkbox which was pretty cool.
Luxury condo in One57 tower sold in New York City’s biggest ever foreclosure auction from CNBC.
And here’s the transcript on yesterday’s PBS Nightly Business Report show (owned by CNBC) with the shoutout that is making the rounds.
Tags: One57, Extell, Bloomberg News, Number 1 on Bloomberg Terminals
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TV, Videos
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I had a fun conversation on Bloomberg Television with Scarlet Fu, Joe Weisenthal and Julia Chatterley. We were discussing the results of our research behind the Elliman Report: Manhattan Sales 3Q17 that was just released. Here is the Bloomberg story on the report results.
Here’s a portion of the interview.
If you’d like to see the whole segment, my interview starts at the 48:40 mark although I really like the format and the hosts so you might want to watch the whole show.
Tags: Scarlet Fu, Joe Weisenthal, Julia Chatterley
Diana Olick of CNBC interviewed me on the reason behind the luxury market uptick as a companion piece to her story on the luxury report released by Redfin.
The luxury real estate story starts at 20:58 into the broadcast:
Tags: Diana Olick, CNBC, PBS, Redfin, Nightly Business Report, NBR
No one will argue that a $70 million penthouse can be special. But when a penthouse has many open houses and sits on the market for more than a year, it seems reasonable to wonder about pricing.
Samantha Sharf at Forbes presented a great video that juxtaposes the amenities of the apartment with my perspective on the state of the super luxury market and the next possible housing cycle in front of us. When they filmed this in Bryant Park, there were many people standing and watching off camera which was kinda fun despite my serious slouching.
[click on image for video]
Tags: Penthouse, Forbes, Samantha Sharf, Zeckendorf
Bloomberg maintains 6 quarterly charts on their terminals covering the Manhattan luxury sales and rental results we compile. I periodically throw these charts on this Matrix Blog only because I find myself asking…how cool is that?
Manhattan Luxury Average Sales Price
Manhattan Luxury Average Sales Price Per Sq Ft
Manhattan Luxury Median Sales Price
Manhattan Luxury Average Rental Price
Manhattan Luxury Average Rental Price Per Sq Ft
Manhattan Luxury Median Rental Price
Tags: Bloomberg Terminals, Luxury Market Charts
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Jonathan Miller is President and CEO of Miller Samuel Inc., a real estate appraisal and consulting firm he co-founded in 1986. He is a state-certified real estate appraiser in New York and Connecticut, performing court testimony as an expert witness in various local, state and federal courts. He holds the Counselors of Real Estate (CRE) and Certified Relocation Professional (CRP) designations. He is an Appraiser “A” Member of the Real Estate Board of New York and a member of Relocation Appraisers and Consultants, Inc.
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Forbes ('20-)
Appraisersblogs ('17-)
'Three Cents Worth' column 3CW ('05-'16)
When Curbed was acquired by Vox, my eleven years of 3CW chart art and column links were broken on Curbed NY, Curbed DC, Curbed Miami, Curbed Hamptons, Curbed LA, and Curbed Ski.
Many of my 3CW charts can be found here:
Curbed 3CW Full Chart Archive
Op-ed column ('14-'15)
'Economic Spotlight column ('03-'09)
New York Times experiment ('08-09')
Huffington Post (09')
Favorite "How to Value" Posts
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