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I write a column for Elliman Magazine called “Market Update” that presents a chart and context around it. Its kind of like my nine-year column “Three Cents Worth” at the old Curbed but more grown-up and without the snark.
Tags: Listing Inventory, Elliman Magazine, Douglas Elliman, New Listing Inventory
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Charts
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For each issue of Elliman Magazine produced by Douglas Elliman, the same company that publishes most of our U.S. market research, I write a brief column and create a graphic to illustrate an important issue facing the luxury housing market. Of course, the graphic I create is then supercharged by their very talented graphics staff.
Listing inventory has essentially collapsed in most U.S. housing markets as unusually low rates against the backdrop of robust economic conditions have burned off supply to record lows. Evidence of this is seen in the proliferation of U.S. housings markets with a significant share of bidding wars. Since these are broad markets, various submarkets can see the market share at must higher levels. The proxy for market share is the share of transactions that close above the asking price at time of sale against total period sales.
In the current issue of Elliman Magazine: Spring/Summer 2022, my column “A Symptom of Chronic Inventory Lows: Bidding Wars Are Everywhere”
[click to expand]
Tags: Listing Inventory, Elliman Magazine, bidding wars, Douglas Elliman
Tags: Listing Inventory
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It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.
Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedNY:
A lot of time and energy has been spent writing about one of the biggest challenges to the New York City housing market in recent years: affordability. One of the primary observations of the purchase market has been the lower number of first time buyers, both locally and nationally. Tight credit, slow household formation, and a creaky economy have been a root cause of keeping their participation muted, but it’s also the disproportionately higher price growth over the long term for smaller apartments. Here’s my attempt to illustrate this trend, using data from the last 25 years…
[click to expand chart]
My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed:
Three Cents Worth: Smaller Manhattan Apartments Keep Getting More Expensive [Curbed]
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Hamptons
Tags: Three Cents Worth, Curbed NY, Listing Inventory, entry-level, trade up
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It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.
Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedNY:
Now that I am fully recovered from Micro Week, I thought I would think a little bigger and present the Manhattan inventory picture by comparing new development and re-sales. I’ve charted it from the pre-Lehman high (PLH for those in the know) through the end of 2014 in two graphs. One shows the year-over-year change, and the other tracks inventory by units to help tell the whole story. Inventory was in a state of free fall for both types from 2009 through 2013, but in 2014 the picture clearly changed…
[click to expand chart]
My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed:
Three Cents Worth: New York’s Building Boom Doesn’t Mean More Units For Sale [Curbed]
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Hamptons
Tags: Three Cents Worth, Curbed NY, Listing Inventory
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Charts
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Read my latest Bloomberg View column Want a New House? Good Luck.
Here’s an excerpt…
Much of the analysis of the housing market focuses on sales volume and price trends. These are important metrics, of course, but they really don’t tell you much about market fundamentals because they are, to a great extent, derivative…
My Bloomberg View Column Directory
My Bloomberg View RSS feed.
Tags: Listing Inventory, credit crunch, NAR, National Association of Realtors
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Read my latest Bloomberg View column The Bidding Wars Are Back.
Hard to believe this is happening again…
Here’s an excerpt…
A relic from the days of the housing boom is making a comeback. The share of sales that feature bidding wars is up. According to the National Association of Realtors, 33 percent of all sales were at or above the asking price, a strong indication that more than one bidder was involved in a transaction…
My Bloomberg View Column Directory
My Bloomberg View RSS feed.
Tags: Listing Inventory, bidding wars, NAR, National Association of Realtors
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The comparison of housing market statistics against last year’s results produced misdirection in our understanding of it’s current state. Although a year-over-year comparison gets rid of seasonality, the results are at the mercy of how normal the prior year was…
The slowdown in the U.S. housing market has caused much hand-wringing. But keep this in mind: robust housing sales and price gains in 2013 were the anomaly and at odds with tepid economic fundamentals such as income, employment and credit. It’s the year-over-year comparisons that make things look worse than they are.
Read my latest Bloomberg View column
Understanding Housing’s Dog Days.
Please join the conversation over at Bloomberg View.
My Bloomberg View Column Directory
My Bloomberg View RSS feed.
Tags: Existing Home Sales, Listing Inventory, Pending Home Sale Index, median sales price, S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, NAR, National Association of Realtors
Yes, inventory is rising off the crazy lows of the past 2 years, but supply is still, well, low.
Tags: Listing Inventory, Supply
Manhattan listing inventory seems to have found a bottom after 4 years of decline…
[click to expand]
Manhattan Co-op/Condo Market Charts [Miller Samuel]
Tags: Listing Inventory
No meaningful rise in inventory in the last 3 months overall supply appears to be leveling off per the recently released 1Q14 Manhattan sales report we authored for Douglas Elliman.
[click to expand]
Manhattan Co-op/Condo Market Charts [Miller Samuel]
Tags: Listing Inventory
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It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.
Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedNY:
It’s that time of year when sellers begin to introduce listing inventory to the “Spring Market”—when sales volume and upward price pressure are generally at their annual peak. I started working on a chart after someone mentioned they noticed a lot of new townhouses being added to inventory. Manhattan townhouse inventory has been rising since the beginning of 2014, showing a similar pattern to co-ops and condos. From the end of December 2013 to end of February 2014, townhouse listing inventory is up 12.8 percent, while co-op listings are up 11.1 percent and condos are up 20.2 percent. To provide some context for these numbers, I expanded the chart to include a 14-year monthly series breaking out co-ops and condos in addition to townhouses…
[click to expand chart]
My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed:
Manhattan Inventory Keeps On Rising [Curbed]
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Hamptons
Tags: Three Cents Worth, Curbed NY, Listing Inventory, 3CW
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Jonathan Miller is President and CEO of Miller Samuel Inc., a real estate appraisal and consulting firm he co-founded in 1986. He is a state-certified real estate appraiser in New York and Connecticut, performing court testimony as an expert witness in various local, state and federal courts. He holds the Counselors of Real Estate (CRE) and Certified Relocation Professional (CRP) designations. He is an Appraiser “A” Member of the Real Estate Board of New York and a member of Relocation Appraisers and Consultants, Inc.
Learn More...
You'll be able to choose from an array of robust housing metrics compiled using research developed during the preparation of our market report series. Expanded significantly from prior offerings, use this resource to build charts and custom data tables or leverage your own information for more powerful research and presentations.
In the meantime, here is a small sample of the aggregated data we will provide.
Forbes ('20-)
Appraisersblogs ('17-)
'Three Cents Worth' column 3CW ('05-'16)
When Curbed was acquired by Vox, my eleven years of 3CW chart art and column links were broken on Curbed NY, Curbed DC, Curbed Miami, Curbed Hamptons, Curbed LA, and Curbed Ski.
Many of my 3CW charts can be found here:
Curbed 3CW Full Chart Archive
Op-ed column ('14-'15)
'Economic Spotlight column ('03-'09)
New York Times experiment ('08-09')
Huffington Post (09')
Favorite "How to Value" Posts
Recent Comments on Matrix