Matrix Blog

I’m headed to Miami this week to speak at the Urban Land Institute’s Miami Condo Market Symposium: Embracing Boom & Bust Cycles. Based on the speaker list, it promises to be an informative event.

[click graphic to go to web site]

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This week marked the end of what I call the “quarterly gauntlet” market report releases that I author for Douglas Elliman. If you’re interested, we’ve analyzed a bunch of markets:

NYC Metro Area
– Manhattan Sales
– Manhattan & Brooklyn Rentals
– Brooklyn Sales
– Queens Sales
– Westchester/Putnam Sales
– Long Island Sales
– Hamptons Sales
– North Fork Sales

South Florida
– Miami Sales
– Boca Raton Sales
– Fort Lauderdale Sales
– Palm Beach Sales

I’ve been writing this expanding report series for Douglas Elliman since 1994. You can also build custom data tables on information included in the reports using our aggregate database and a growing library of market charts.

Comments Off on 3Q 2013 Market Report Gauntlet Comes to a Close

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed Miami, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the Magic City. And I’m simply here to take measurements.

Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedMiami:

This week I thought I’d give a quick look at the last 18 months – the period where Miami transitioned its US image from poster child for distressed real estate back to a luxury real estate location. If these are thrown into one bucket, the drop in lower priced distressed activity unreasonable skews the overall market higher so I thought it would be good to break out the market like we do in the market reports we prepare for Douglas Elliman…

[click to expand chart]

My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: Midyear Snapshot On Improving Magic City Housing Market [Curbed]

Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Hamptons

Tags: Three Cents Worth, Curbed Miami, 3CW

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Today Douglas Elliman published four 2Q 2013 South Florida market reports we prepare that include Miami, Boca Raton, Fort Lauderdale and Palm Beach.

Comments Off on Reporting from South Florida 2Q13: Miami, Boca Raton, Fort Lauderdale and Palm Beach

We just published our report on the Miami Coastal Community housing markets. This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

• Inventory fell to 8-year low.
  
• Jump in both number of sales and signed contracts.
  
• Housing prices rose above year ago level.
  
• Median sales price rose to highest level for second quarter in 8 years.
  
• Credit remains tight keeping inventory low.
  
• Heavy contract momentum carrying into next quarter.
  
  

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

The overall number of sales rose by 15.4% to 6,416 to the highest total since we began tracking this metric in 2006. The market share for non-distressed sales comprised 67.2% of all market sales, up from 46.6% in the same quarter three years ago…There were 9,490 listings at the end of the second quarter, 18.8% less than in the prior year quarter. Distressed inventory fell by 44.1% and non-distressed inventory was down by 12% over the same period…

You can build your own custom data tables for Miami as well as view charts on the Miami market, all updated with 2Q13 data.

The Elliman Report: 2Q 2013 Miami Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 2Q 2013 Miami Sales [Douglas Elliman]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]
Miami Market Charts [Miller Samuel]

Comments Off on [Up + Less Distressed] 2Q 2013 Miami Report

[click images to open each market report]

We recently completed the 1Q 2013 South Florida market report series for Douglas Elliman. These markets include Miami, Boca Raton, Fort Lauderdale and Palm Beach.

Comments Off on 1Q 2013 South Florida Housing Market Reports Gone Wild

Andrew Siff, a reporter for WNBC Channel 4 in New York did a great job articulating the tight inventory phenomenon we are seeing in both the region and nationally.

Tri-State Real Estate Market Under Tightest Squeeze in Years [WNBC Channel 4]
Listing Inventory Is, Well, Listing [Matrix]

Tags: Andrew Siff, WNBC, Television

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South Florida-based Douglas Elliman has translated the 4Q 2012 Elliman Report: Miami Sales that I prepare (I only took high school French) to Spanish and Portuguese, reflective of the significant demand from South Americans.

[click to open reports]

Elliman Report: Miami Sales (Spanish) 4Q 2012 [Douglas Elliman]
Elliman Report: Miami Sales (Portuguese) 4Q 2012 [Douglas Elliman]
Elliman Report: Miami Sales (English) 4Q 2012 [Douglas Elliman]

Comments Off on The 4Q12 Miami Housing Market Translated: Economics, Spanish & Portuguese

Since housing bust began, Condo Vultures has led the way with distressed new development information on Miami, a housing market that became branded for foreclosures and stalled new development activity after the mid-decade crash. Their name suggests someone who is picking over the dead carcasses of stalled condos built during the boom and no one has marketed themselves more thoroughly in this segment.

They seem to perform a lot of analysis through public record and have the inside track on data from developers not in public record. Good for them. It’s a niche they own. But with that dominance comes responsibility.

Their regular email press releases are chocked full of information hyperbole (as most newsletters are) but there is often a disconnect between the headline and the content (just like we see with the monthly NAR releases). Recently I observed that they stopped the dated approach of marketing properties as a percentage discount from original pricing. I do find the releases interesting to read but I worry about the accuracy of the messaging for the uninitiated. I found the latest one grating so I thought I’d break it down because it symbolizes the challenges and responsibilities of analyzing a market segment with limited transparency.

Here’s the headline:

600 New South Beach Condos Unsold As Sales Slow Dramatically In Q4 2012

That’s sounds quite dire, right?

Not really. In a pool of 600 units, 10 sold in 4Q12, down from 20 sales in 4Q11. Let’s delve into the rules of market trends:

Misuse of percentages – The results suggest a 50% drop in sales. And to use my favorite example of this technique, a market whose sales rise from 1 to 2 experienced a 100% increase in sales. Better to say 10 fewer sales or 1 more sale than last year when the numbers are so small.

Number generalization – There are no precise numbers being provided anywhere in this release yet the results are numbers-based …less than 10 sold in 4Q12 and more than 20 sales sold in 4Q11. If you are burning calories on providing approximate metrics worthy of a screaming headline, why not provide the actual numbers? If it was 9 and 21 or 1 and 29, the same logic would apply so why omit it?

Data set size – Based on the release, there were “about 600” unsold from boom, new development condo listings in 4Q12, the same size as the prior quarter. However the release doesn’t provide the year ago quarter total. What if it was 1,200?…then the drop was proportional. Why not be transparent and just provide the actual numbers – they must have them to provide such “precise estimating.” The 10 sales or less total represents 1.7% of the inventory or even less depending on how many sales there actually were.

When I first read through this release I did some quick math – I took the 10 sales (or less) which represented 1.7% of the 600 unit market and wild guessed, based on general market activity, that this shadow inventory was at least 700 last year. So at this level, the 20 sales (or more) in 4Q11 would indicate a 2.9% share. With this logic, the sales market share of the shadow inventory fell from 2.9% to 1.7% over the year, a 1.2% drop in market share.

Should a 1.2% decline be described as a dramatic slow down? No, based on the info presented, the decline was more like a rounding error.

C’mon.

Tags: Condo Vultures

Comments Off on Miami Hype Machine: “Sales Pace Slows Dramatically”

We published our inaugural report on the Palm Beach, Florida sales market for 4Q 2012.   This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

• Luxury market prices outpaced the overall market.
  
• Overall price indicators show sharp year over year gains.
  
• Overall sales levels trending higher.
  
• Days on market expanded as demand worked off older inventory.
  
• Negotiability between buyers and seller fell sharply.
  
  
  
  Here’s an excerpt from the report:

CONDO/TOWNHOUSE Median sales price jumped 23.9% from the same quarter last year to $588,750. Average sales price and average price per square foot edged 5.8% and 1.3% respectively over the same period. Number of sales jumped 56.1% year-overyear to 64 sales, but remained unchanged from the prior quarter…

SINGLE FAMILY Although this market segment represents a narrow submarket of Palm Beach, the number of sales nearly doubled from prior year levels, reaching 26. All price indicators showed double-digit year-over-year gains; median sales price increased 13% to $2,775,000 over the period, while average sales price and average price per square foot showed larger gains, rising 32% and 26.1% respectively…

You can build your own custom data tables. We’ll be adding a chart library for this market area shortly.

The Elliman Report: 4Q 2012 Palm Beach [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 4Q 2012 Palm Beach [Douglas Elliman]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]

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We published our report on the Fort Lauderdale, Florida sales market for 4Q 2012.   This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

• Overall price indicators show year over year gains.
  
• Overall sales levels trending higher.
  
• Luxury condo prices jumped, single family slipped.
  
• The time to sell a property fell sharply.
  
  
  
  
  Here’s an excerpt from the report:

CONDO/TOWNHOUSE
Median sales price jumped 19.4% from the same period last year to $215,000. Average sales price and average price per square foot increased 13.5% and 12.9% respectively over the same period, while number of sales increased 3.7% to 474…

SINGLE FAMILY Median sales price jumped 13.8% from the prior year quarter to $182,000. Average sales price and average price per square foot increased 2.6% and 6.3% respectively over the same period. There were 457 fourth quarter single-family sales, a 19.3% surge above prior year levels…

You can build your own custom data tables. We’ll be adding a chart library for this market area shortly.

The Elliman Report: 4Q 2012 Fort Lauderdale [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 4Q 2012 Fort Lauderdale [Douglas Elliman]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]

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We published our report on the Boca Raton, Florida sales market for 4Q 2012. This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

• Overall price indicators show sharp year over year gains.
  
• Overall sales levels trending higher.
  
• Marketing times fell sharply and negotiability between buyers and seller narrowed.
  
  
  
  
  

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

CONDO/TOWNHOUSE Median sales price of a Boca Raton condo jumped 28.2% from $93,000 in the prior year quarter to $119,250. Over the same period, the number of sales edged 1.4% higher to 642. With 1,227 active listings, the monthly absorption rate was 5.7 months, consistent with the past several quarters…

SINGLE FAMILY Median sales price surged 17% from the prior year quarter to $310,000. Number of sales jumped 17.9% to 566 sales over the same period, the largest fourth quarter total in more than 6 years. With inventory at 1,127, the absorption rate, or number of months to sell all active listings at the current pace of sales, was 6 months, which was consistent with the past several quarters…

You can build your own custom data tables on the market – now updated with 4Q 12 data. We’ll be adding a chart library for this market area soon!

The Elliman Report: 4Q 2012 Boca Raton [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 4Q 2012 Boca Raton [Douglas Elliman]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]

Tags: Absorption

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