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Inspired by my analysis of yesterday’s WSJ article, I thought I’d explore the effectiveness of low mortgage rates in getting the housing market going. I matched year-to-date sales volume where a mortgage was used and mortgage rates broken out by conforming and jumbo mortgage volume.

Mortgage volume has been falling (off an artificial high I might add) since 2005, while rates have continued to fall to new record lows, yet transaction volume has not recovered. I contend that low rates can now do no more to help housing than they already have.

Even the NAR has run out of reasons and is now focusing on bad appraisals as holding the market back (I agree appraisal quality post Dodd-Frank is terrible and is impacting the market to a limited extent – and I secretly wish appraiser held that much sway over the market).

I’m no bear, but the uptick Case Shiller’s report today (remembering that Case Shiller reflects the housing market 5-7 months ago) still shows slowing momentum and all 2012 year-over-year comparisons in the various national reports are skewed higher from an anemic 2011.

Five years of falling mortgage rates have only served to provide stability in volume. The monetary and fiscal conversation ought to be on ways to incentivize banks to ease credit – falling rates only makes them more risk averse.

Of course a significant drop in unemployment would likely solve the tight credit problem fairly quickly.

Tags: Case-Shiller, FNC, Jumbo Mortgage, Conforming Mortgage, WSJ, NAR, National Association of Realtors

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In the WSJ, FNC reported that jumbo mortgages saw a larger year-over-year gain than conforming:

Home sales using a jumbo mortgage had year-over-year growth of 7.9% through September, compared with 2.7% for nonjumbo sales, according to an analysis for The Wall Street Journal by mortgage-technology company FNC.

Could this be a sign that credit is thawing a bit more quickly at upper end of the market?

Capital Economics Ltd., in a recent research note, found that jumbo loans are going to borrowers with credit scores as low as 700, compared with 720 or higher previously, and that financing has generally reached $2 million from a previous upper limit of $1.5 million.

Anecdotal sure, but when looking at the actual jumbo mortgage data, it appears that from 2005 to 2012, mortgage volume for jumbo fell 83.1% and non jumbo fell 46.9%. In other words, jumbo mortgage volume fell 2x further than non jumbo from peak. Also, a number of the high cost markets had their base level lowered expanded what is now considered a “jumbo loan”:

Also, the floor for a jumbo loan fell in some high-cost areas last fall. In Los Angeles and New York, for example, the definition of a jumbo dropped to $625,500 and up from $729,750 and up. With the lower floor, a loan of $700,000 would now be a jumbo loan.

So the fact that jumbo volume is up 7.9% versus 2.7% reflects it being calculated from a much lower base number, and with lower jumbo thresholds, more loans are being classified as jumbo. This likely resulted in a somewhat larger jumbo market share, reaching 5.5% of total mortgages in 2012 compared to 5.2% in 2011.

My takeaway here is that jumbos are not growing at 3x the rate of conforming as FNC seems to be suggesting, but jumbos (5.5% of the first mortgage market) are more likely consistent with the balance of the mortgage market.

Since jumbos have no real secondary market to allow mortgage lenders to free up their capital to lend more, jumbos are actually performing amazingly well however you slice it, just not better than conforming mortgages.

Tags: FNC, Jumbo Mortgage, Conforming Mortgage

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One of the biggest issues facing higher priced housing markets as of late, has been the absolute lack of jumbo mortgage financing. The TARP, TALF (and BARF – Bank Asset Relief Fund) only address mortgages within the parameters of Fannie Mae, ie conventional and jumbo conventional financing. In Manhattan that’s about $729k and with an average sales price just under $1.6M, a lot of homeowners are having great difficulty in obtaining mortgages with more than a 50% LTV.

This Bank of America announcement is great news for this sector of the housing market and may spark other interest in the sector.

Kenneth R. Harney’s must-read WaPo column “The Nation’s Housing” covers this announcement this week in his article: A Big Boost for Buyers Seeking Jumbo Loans:

Bank of America, the country’s largest mortgage lender, is rolling out a large program to finance jumbo loans between roughly $730,000 and $1.5 million, with fixed 30-year rates starting in the upper 5 percent range. The loans will be available through the bank’s retail network and also through its Countrywide Home Loans subsidiary. After April 27, Countrywide will be rebranded — shedding the name it has had since 1969 — and morph into Bank of America Home Loans. Bank of America acquired Countrywide, once one of the biggest subprime lenders, last year.

So Countrywide becomes Bank of America Home Loans.

Last week, Landsafe, the appraisal management company arm of Countrywide approached us to be approved as an appraiser. Their quality people have met with us many times but for some reason, the sales function didn’t allow our type of firm to connect because you had to rub elbows with loan reps at each of their offices. Crazy bad.

I believe that has all been changed or is being changed for the better.

However, although we are state certified and likely because of all their problems with appraisal quality, their efforts to right the wrongs effective screen out qualified appraisers. They wanted among other things:

• our social security numbers
• credit card numbers?
• driver’s license #’s
• date of birth
• consumer reports containing illness records and medical information

Seemed pretty aggressive to us. What about identity theft concerns?

The irony of this sort of scrutiny is pretty powerful given past practices. Hopefully once things begin to run more smoothly and one hand knows what the other is doing, they’ll reconsider trying to attract qualified appraisers. We’ll wait patiently.

Good grief.

Tags: Jumbo Mortgage, Fannie Mae, Sub-Prime

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Not much wiggle room left for the Fed, but always time for New Wave “turning Japanese” nostalgia.

I keep thinking about the 0% discount rate set by the Bank of Japan since the mid-1990s and how that hasn’t worked. The Bank of England’s rate was dropped to 2%, the lowest since 1951.

Referring to Great Britain, but the same concept applies to the US economy:

Like Japan, the recession has shown government spending to be way out of kilter with the size of the post-bubble economy, and our budget deficits are set to easily reach those of Japan at its peak.

In Barrons:

Are U.S. Markets Turning Japanese?
It would seem so as yields plunge well below 3%. Think of it as the 1970s in reverse.

BABY BOOMERS, MORE THAN ANY OTHER GENERATION, seem stuck in their youths. Think of how the tastes of so many of their numbers remain ossified in the 1960s and 1970s, from Classic Rock on the radio to recreations of the autos of their youth, such as the VW Beetle, the Mustang and the Mini.

So, too, have their expectations about the economy. Prices only go one way — up — whether for the stuff they buy every day (except for computers and the other electronic accoutrements), their assets such as stocks or houses, or the pay for their services. They can no more conceive another kind of world than one without cell phones. And any departure must be an aberration, surely short-lived and certain to revert to the norm they’d known.

In other words, finance, as we know it, is undergoing massive change and the products we end up with are not going to be the same as we had a few years ago when the market was always going up.

Mortgage rates are fallng and mortgage applications (not necessarily successful applications) have just tripled and the US Treasury is talking about pushing rates as low as 4.5%. Although it doesn’t address jumbo mortgages, it is a first sign of progress, but by no means does it solve a whole lot.

Some say that with the nearly 8 trillion in exposure we taxpayers have through guaranties and investment, rates will rise with the flood of paper issued to pay for all this. I’m not sure. If the economy is lackluster at best for the next 2-3 years, I have a hard time seeing rates rising with the lack of demand in the near term.

Aside: Donald Trump is complaining his new Chicago condominium project is too expensive.

Yet another aside: This is your child’s brain on a Sony HD 52 inch Flat Screen with surround sound.

Big 3 + UAW aside: Combined common stock worth $3B, so lets give them $34B To date they have: fought emissions restrictions, fuel economy, safety features, make poor quality cars, and paid 12,000 people to not work. I went to school in Michigan and, despite obvious sympathy for hard working people in this situation, I have a hard time seeing how things are going to change in any way whatsoever. I’ll bet they don’t go on the same extravagant trips that AIG took if this goes through now that they have driven their own hybrids.

Tags: FNC, Jumbo Mortgage, Bankrate.com, Radio

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Bank earnings are down.
Way down.
Real concerns about future losses from non-performing mortgages, other credit instruments like credit cards and the need to recapitalize.

Fed policy has been pretty generous to the economy, no?

No.

Current hopeful scenario: Lower the federal funds rates a lot so that banks can lower mortgage rates to enable consumers to refi their way out of trouble for the time being or purchase a new home.

Looked good on paper…

But mortgage rates have been rising, whether it’s a jumbo or conforming, fixed or adjustable.

Banks need to recapitalize because they have been forced to lend and hold the mortgages they issue in their own portfolio.

Borrow at a low rate,
lend at a high rate.
Enjoy the spread.

Banks can lend at a higher rate because fewer banks are lending so there is less competition. In addition, the banks that are still lending have much tighter underwriting requirements compared to the past 3-4 years.

Why? Banks now have to be more accountable for risk in their mortgage lending decisions rather than offloading risk to investors, who would in turn offload the risk to other investors and so on.

It’s all about the credit markets. Until they begin to function again, banks will not be incentivized to offer lower the rates on mortgages they issue.

This is another form of “bailout.” The Fed is keeping the banking sector from imploding (opposite of spreading – very lame, sorry).

Tags: Jumbo Mortgage, Conforming Mortgage, FDIC, Bankrate.com

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There is a whole lot of oversight going on these days. OFHEO [Office of Housing Enterprise Oversight] and others are very concerned about the ability of the GSEs to avoid getting into trouble.

I wonder why there was so little oversight before the credit crunch? Was it an…oversight (sorry)?

It’s pretty scary to think that Fannie and Freddie (and HUD) are seen as the saviors of the housing market in the creation of a jumbo conforming mortgage product, expanded portfolio size and a housing market condition that continues to weaken (default rates rise as prices decline). They are already vulnerable.

Although few are predicting an imminent need for a bailout just yet, credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s recently placed an estimated price tag on this worst case scenario — $420 billion to $1.1 trillion of taxpayer’s money.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are getting a lot more attention from the Treasury Department these days.

Treasury officials have stepped up efforts to strengthen the regulation of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two largest buyers of home mortgages, pressing key senators to break a legislative stalemate that has lasted for years.

In OFHEOs Report to Congress, it summarizes the concerns quite efficiently:

$5.0 trillion in guaranteed mortgage-backed securities outstanding and mortgage investments. Their market share of total mortgage originations grew from 37.4 percent in 2006 to 75.6 percent by the fourth quarter of 2007. There is increasing pressure for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to do even more to support the mortgage market, which is problematic in absence of GSE reform legislation to strengthen the regulatory process.

As evidenced by the lack of market enthusiasm for the new jumbo conforming mortgage product that was supposed to help the housing market (allowing some homeowners to refi their way out of trouble – which can’t be good for FNMA’s portfolio). And OFHEO is just wrapping up actions against former FNMA executives who manipulated earnings to enhance their bonus income.

It doesn’t seem reasonable to place all of our hopes for a solution on the GSEs.

Consider oversight in the classroom: How students see their classroom today.

Tags: Jumbo Mortgage, Conforming Mortgage, Fannie Mae, GSE, OFHEO, Bailout Nation, Freddie Mac

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Back in the day, WaMu was one of the fasted growing mortgage originators and was affectionately known as the lender of last resort to mortgage brokers. Their appropriate “Power of Yes” advertising campaign was particularly accurate.

Implode-O-Meter reports that:

Washington Mutual will announce later today they are backing out of Wholesale entirely, and Retail is retreating to the bank footprint. Expect an email blast to Brokers later today.

Word is “They will leave the retail division in Jacksonville & Downers Grove” and all wholesale deals must close by June 30th.

It appears there may have been some conditions attached to that $5 billion.

Last week they reportedly allayed investor concerns that they were receiving a cash infusion of $5B.

I believe there are only a handful of national lenders left that are providing wholesale mortgage products in significant quantity. With this trend unfolding, combined with Fannie Mae’s upcoming ban on appraisal ordering by mortgage brokers, the high fees and unfavorable rates of jumbo conforming mortgages, a return to more core lending practices, proposed mortgage broker legislation, it’s not a good time to be a mortgage broker.

The mortgage bankers association expects the industry to contract in the current regulatory environment. There are many good mortgage brokers out there, but the profession needs weeding out, not unlike appraisers and real estate agents.

There is no love lost between WaMu and me because of the poor way it treated its long-time residential appraisers in 2006.

My question is: how will WaMu make money now? I had assumed wholesale mortgage origination was a big part of their business and their growth was fueled by mortgage origination. Their servicing business must be very lucrative.

UPDATE: Consolidation effort to eliminate 3,000 jobs
UPDATE 2: WaMu: Only for the Bravest of Investors

Tags: Jumbo Mortgage, Conforming Mortgage, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac

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One of the things I have found particularly aggravating during the past two years has been all the coverage on foreclosure stats. I don’t think consumers (or the media) have much perspective on the stats being produced, mainly by RealtyTrac and their competitor Foreclosure.com It’s been a groundbreaking effort on their part to collect this data but here’s a sample representing my issue with all this. I actually posted about the foreclosure data perspective problem back in September2006 (I just re-read it and it is relatively coherent) but the communication problem remains.

We see huge percentage increases every single month and yet the typical reader doesn’t really know what these stats mean in the context of all mortgages outstanding other than…it’s getting worse. I don’t think I am alone in getting the feeling that 87.4% of all houses are under foreclosure (left-handed people only, while it’s 92.3% if you include right-handed people).

Here are some examples…

From the New York Times

Statistics on foreclosure are snapshots of a moving phenomenon, and data from the state labor department show 174 foreclosures in Belair-Edison last year, while the Community Law Center, a nonprofit public service group, counted 181; both figures are well below the more than 275 foreclosures in 2001 and in 2002.

From Forbes

In February, Florida trailed only Nevada and California in the percentage of homes in foreclosure. RealtyTrac Inc. said 32,447 homes were in foreclosure statewide in February, up more than 69 percent from February of last year and up more than 7 percent from January.

Back in October 2007, the OTS released the first Monthly Market Monitor (creatively called MMM). It referred to the mortgage problem as the “Mortgage Malaise” (2 M’s if you were wondering) The most recent issue was released on wednesday referring to the mortgage markets in “disarray”. The MMM charts are really useful because they show the pace of foreclosures in an historical context and the amount of foreclosures relative to the amount of mortgages outstanding. The info on these charts are what we need to see more of.

Here’s a housing summary from the March 2008 report:

The slump in the housing market has not only impacted residential construction, but lending and loan performance have deteriorated in concert. Non‐conforming loan originations fell 49 percent in the fourth quarter, as the secondary market for bonds backed by the collateral is still shuttered. According to data collected by Inside Mortgage Finance, approximately $84.5 billion of non‐conforming loans were originated in the quarter ending in December 2007, comprising just 19.9 percent of total loan production. This is the lowest volume of originations ever, and is a far cry from the peak origination period of 2005, when the total reached $1.58 trillion, or 50.4 percent of all production.6 By loan type, jumbo production fell 47 percent in the fourth quarter, plummeting to $44 billion, or less than 10% of all originations. The downturn in Alt‐A and subprime loan production persist, with fourth quarter volume at $27 billion and $13.5 billion, respectively.

In contrast to non‐conforming product, FHA/VA loan production rose steadily in 2007, from a low of $19.0 billion in the first quarter to $31.0 billion at the end of the year. Activity in government‐insured lending was twice that of subprime.

Even Treasury Secretary Paulson is giving us better perspective of foreclosure stats in his speech to the US Chamber of Commerce on Wednesday:

Home foreclosures are also a significant issue today. Foreclosures are painful and costly to homeowners and, neighborhoods. They also prolong the housing correction by adding to the inventory of unsold homes. Before quickly reviewing our initiatives to prevent avoidable foreclosures, let me observe that some current headlines make it difficult to put foreclosure rates in perspective. So let me try to do so.

First, 92 percent of all homeowners with mortgages pay that mortgage every month right on time. Roughly 2 percent of mortgages are in foreclosure. Even from 2001 to 2005, a time of solid U.S. economic growth and high home price appreciation, foreclosure starts averaged more than 650,000 per year.

Last year there were about 1.5 million foreclosures started and estimates are that foreclosure starts might be as high as 2 million in 2008. These foreclosures are highly concentrated – subprime mortgages account for 50 percent of foreclosure starts, even though they are only 13 percent of all mortgages outstanding. Adjustable rate subprime mortgages account for only 6 percent of all mortgages but 40 percent of the foreclosures. So we are right to focus many of our policies on subprime borrowers.

There are approximately 7 million outstanding subprime mortgage loans. Available data suggests that 10 percent of subprime borrowers were investors or speculators. This figure is likely higher, as some investors misrepresented themselves to take advantage of a cheaper rate, and others speculated on a primary residence, expecting prices to continue going up.

And if you can’t keep track of foreclosures because it’s too confusing, try something simple like converting your phone number into words.

Tags: Jumbo Mortgage, Conforming Mortgage, FHA, Forbes, Sub-Prime

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This is huge.

Federal regulators said Wednesday they would allow mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to reduce the capital they are required to keep on hand, a move that could pump $200 billion into mortgage markets.

The rule change was announced by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, (OFHEO), a normally low-profile agency which sets rules for the two government sponsored companies that between them hold or guarantee nearly $5 trillion in mortgages.

Here’s the OFHEO press release.

OFHEO estimates that Fannie Mae’s and Freddie Mac’s existing capabilities, combined with this new initiative and the release of the portfolio caps announced in February, should allow the GSEs to purchase or guarantee about $2 trillion in mortgages this year. This capacity will permit them to do more in the jumbo temporary conforming market, subprime refinancing and loan modifications areas.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (as well as FHA) have evolved into critical roles in stabilizing the credit market panic and have assumed important roles in providing greater liquidity to the mortgage markets, a key component in avoiding long term damage to the economy.

The OFHEO assures us that the 20% capital requirement is enough cushion for safety and the GSEs will begin to aggressively raise capital starting now. The $200B in extra funds will allow Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy more mortgage securities and new home loans and increase mortgage guarantees.

Not too sound too rah rah here but I am amazed that we continue to see creative solutions to the credit crisis, seemingly everyday. Of course OFHEO missed the boat while the problems developed but at least now we are seeing some action.

Mandatory reading today: Can’t Grasp Credit Crisis? Join the Club by the NYT’s David Leonhardt. Please read it.

Raise your hand if you don’t quite understand this whole financial crisis.

Tags: Jumbo Mortgage, Conforming Mortgage, FHA, Fannie Mae, GSE, OFHEO, Sub-Prime, Freddie Mac

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Well its official, a beagle finally won the Westminster Dog Show after being shut out since 1874 Roger Clemens finally testified in front of Congress today President Bush signed the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008, describing it as a “booster shot” for the American economy.

The bill I’m signing today is large enough to have an impact, amounting to more than $152 million this year, or about 1 percent of the GDP (gross domestic product),” the president said in the brief ceremony in the East Room of the White House.

About 130M Americans are going to get rebate checks by May.

A recent Associated Press-Ipos poll indicates most people have other plans. Forty-five percent said they planned to pay off bills, while 32 percent said they would save or invest it. Only 19 percent said they would spend their rebates.

The relevant benefit, as it relates to housing, concerns the expansion of the conforming loan limit from $417,000 to $729,750. However there have been concerns raised, based on past issues, with the GSE’s ability to manage the additional risk and the distraction that this temporary increase will have with their mission to encourage affordable housing (I think Paulson’s primary concern is the additional risk exposure because I fail to see how this prevents the GSE’s from their mission).

The temporary conforming loan limit expansion is still unknown and may prove to be of little benefit. As new mortgages that were once jumbos become conforming, the following could happen:

• Payments could drop because conforming loans are lower risk (in theory) and therefore have lower rates.
• Wall Street investors who buy mortgage-backed securities could demand a premium for the larger loans now purchased by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac so rates may not change at all or could fall in between the current rates for conforming and jumbo.
• The economy could get worse which seems likely given the FOMC futures market prediction of a 50% probability that the FOMC will drop rates by 50 basis points at their next meeting.

Tags: Jumbo Mortgage, Conforming Mortgage, Fannie Mae, GSE, Freddie Mac

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This report is provided by Jeffrey Otteau of the Otteau Appraisal Group who also authors a series of widely followed quarterly market reports on the New Jersey real estate market. This information is collected from various sources including Boards of Realtors and Multiple Listing Systems in New Jersey.

I have known Jeff for many years and consider him one of the leaders in the real estate appraisal profession. He has taught me a lot about quantitative real estate market analysis.
…Jonathan Miller

HOME SALES DECLINE FURTHER AT YEAR END

The pace of home sales in New Jersey declined further in December providing compelling evidence that the housing market recession has not yet reached bottom. In December, Contract-Sales activity declined 24% below the November pace and was 31% less than in December 2006. When considered against the backdrop of high Unsold Inventory levels and a looming economic recession, it appears certain that existing-home prices will continue their decline into 2008. As a result, strategies of ‘waiting until Spring’ are ill conceived as overpricing inevitably leads to extended marketing times and lower prevailing market price levels. Best-Practices for a weakening housing market is to price ‘ahead of the decline curve’ to shorten marketing time and capture a higher selling price before prices drift even lower. From the new construction persepective however, many home builders have already embraced this strategy with Right Pricing! that reflects the current market realities. For the next segment on our Right Pricing! Strategy, register to attend our 2008 Spring Workshop Series next month.

Despite the ongoing market decline, some bright spots are emerging. Unsold Inventory declined for the fourth consecutive month and now stands 16% lower than in August, reflecting 12,000 fewer homes on the market. Also encouraging is that mortgage interest rates continue their descent providing a boost to home buyers’ purchasing power and helping to close the housing affordability gap in New Jersey. According to Freddie Mac’s latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.48 percent for the week ending January 24, 2008, down from 5.69 percent the prior week and 6.25 percent last year at this time. The last time mortgage rates were lower was March 25, 2004, a time when home buying activity was at a frenzied pace. Another positive factor is yesterday’s announcement that President Bush and House leaders have agreed on an economic stimulus package that would allow Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to raise the limit on the loans they purchase from $417,000 to $625,500. Similarly the FHA limit would be increased from $362,000 to $725,000. The effect of such increases would be to expand the pool of money for borrowers of so-called Jumbo Mortgages thus increasing liquidity and reducing interest rates for these loans in the process.

The take-away from all of these developments is that while the market has further to fall, the bottom point is getting closer. Home buyers should take notice of these developments as 2008 presents an unusual combination of being in the ‘driver’s seat’ of price negotiations at a time of record low interest rates. Those who wait too long will eventually find this opportunity window closed when higher interest rates and firmer pricing returns to the market.

UPDATE: Here’s more commentary on the New Jersey market.

Tags: Jumbo Mortgage, FHA, Jeff Otteau, NAR, National Association of Realtors

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Not a month goes by that Larry doesn’t say housing is getting better and that mortgage problems are temporary.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, expected the sluggish performance. “As noted last month, temporary mortgage problems were peaking back in August when many of the sales closed in October were being negotiated. We continue to see the biggest impact in high-cost markets that rely on jumbo loans,” he said. “Mortgage availability has improved as evidenced by much lower mortgage interest rates and a sharp jump in FHA endorsements for home purchases.

I was wondering what mortgage data Larry is referring to? I don’t believe its part of his research but is a primary basis of rationalization for glowing market conditions, despite the fact that inventory tracked by NAR is at its highest level since 1985 and has continued to rise despite temporary mortgage problems.

Here’s what I said about Mr. Yun’s choice of the word “temporary” last month. Hmmm… perhaps this should be a monthly ritual until he stops using the word. Even then, we can’t be assured it will be temporary.

I yearn for the day when NAR finds that perfect moment and decides to inform the public and the consumer what is happening in the housing market, rather than assume we are illiterate. I know many, many brokerage firms and agents that agree with this. PR driven quotes like this don’t move markets so what is there to be afraid of?

UPDATE: Here’s a related article referencing some of my feelings about this topic in a Business week piece: Northeast Home Prices Remain Strong: Unlike the rest of the U.S., the region has seen price increases for the past six months. But a bad bonus season could change that

UPDATE 2: Supply of homes on market at 22-year high: Existing-home sales pace falls to 4.97 million for October, off 1.2%

Tags: Jumbo Mortgage, FHA, Lawrence Yun, NAR, National Association of Realtors

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