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The 4Q 2008 Brooklyn Market Overview that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman was just released.

The President and CEO of Prudential Douglas Elliman, Dottie Herman, is a big believer in publishing market data to create more transparency for consumers in the market her firm serves – Manhattan to Montauk.

Other reports we prepare can be found here.

Customized tables for the 4Q 2008 Brooklyn [data](https://www.millersamuel.com/data) and a series of updated [charts](https://www.millersamuel.com/charts/index.php?Node=1215666045XVpiJ) are available on our corporate site.

A report excerpt

…The median sales price was $490,000, down 7.5% from the prior year quarter result of $530,000 and down 3.9% from the prior quarter result of $510,000. The year over year change in quarter median sales price has declined for 5 consecutive quarters beginning in the fourth quarter of 2007 when the decline was 0.9%. Subsequent quarters resulted in declines in this metric of 1%, 1.9%, 5.6% and 7.5%. In addition, this is the first time the indicator fell below $500,000 since the first quarter of 2006 when the median sales price was $499,500. Average sales price for the quarter was $559,338, down 5.2% from the prior year quarter average sales price of $590,169 and down 2.8% from $575,287 in the prior quarter. Brooklyn showed declines in median sales price more than a year ahead of Manhattan…

The media coverage of the report is available here as they were obtained (in no particular order). In addition, the headlines and respective links to articles listed below are a fun way to see how the media interprets the report content since every outlet was working off the same information.

Print/Web

Brooklyn Apartment, Home Prices Drop 7.5% as Recession Hits [Bloomberg]
Brooklyn Housing Boom: Dude, It’s So Over [New York Observer]
Q4 Brooklyn Reports Show Bloodletting, Except Brownstones [Curbed]
Brooklyn housing market still suffering [Crains]
Brooklyn apartment sales prices fall 7.5 pct -report [Reuters]
Brooklyn Real Estate Begins to Collapse, Too [Gothamist]
Brooklyn apartment sales prices fall 7.5 pct -report [Forbes]
Brooklyn Real-estate Market Reports: More Sobering News [New York Mag]
Elliman: Condos Down, Co-ops Flat, Brownstones Up in 4Q [Brownstoner]
Brownstone Brooklyn prices unscathed in fourth quarter [The Real Deal]
Brooklyn Housing Market Hit [WNYC]
Experts: Real-estate boom about to go bust [The Brooklyn Paper]

Radio

4Q 08 Brooklyn Market recap [WNYC Radio]
Brooklyn Housing Market in 4q 2008 [Bloomberg Radio]

Tags: Dottie Herman, Brownstoner, Forbes, New York Observer, Radio

Comments Off on [When Brooklyn Was The World] 4Q 2008 Brooklyn Market Overview Available For Download

Long Island City has been one of those segments of the New York City real estate market that has quietly experienced fairly broad consumer acceptance in a short period of time. This is evidenced by the large level of purchase activity over the past several years in response to new development efforts. As a result, residential support services are entering the market at an impressive pace.

Located in Queens, Long Island City has signifiant linkage to Manhattan. The new residential condominium developments in Long Island City are generally selling for roughly half the price per square foot of similar product in Manhattan and yet is only a few minutes away from Manhattan via subway. (That’s how I plan to get there tonight.)

At 6:30 this evening, Dottie Herman, CEO of Prudential Douglas Elliman and I will first speak at The Powerhouse Condominium and then at 7:30 we will speak at L Haus Condominium to the brokers attending the event. Her firm’s New Homes Development Group is handling the marketing of both developments plus a nearby property that is already being marketed called The Foundry and they are included in the event as well.

Should be fun.

Tags: Dottie Herman

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Jonathan Miller, President & CEO, Miller Samuel
Dottie Herman, President & CEO, Prudential Douglas Elliman

To hear the clip.

I have been writing a series of markets reports covering the New York region for about 14 years via Prudential Douglas Elliman. It’s been a lot of fun to do them, especially in a market that lives, breathes, eats and sleeps real estate. The popularity of our neutral report series continues to motivate us to expand the geography and types of property it covers. Can we say Brooklyn, finally?

Last week we released the 2Q 08 Manhattan Market Overview. One of the recent efforts to bring the results and interpretation of the market to the consumer and the real estate industry is by a video conversation on the market, which Dottie and I began last quarter.

Call me crazy, but I always find it refreshing to hear candor rather than processed press release speak.

Catch the subliminal green blip near the end of the clip? Are you suddenly hungry for pizza?

Tags: Dottie Herman, Television, Pizza

Comments Off on [In The Media] PDE TV Conversation With Dottie Herman

Here are a couple of new developments in my endeavor with Radar Logic….

The RPX market is now live!

Licensed dealers can now begin to write contracts on property derivatives based on the Radar Logic Daily Price indices.

Radar Logic now has our own page on the Bloomberg terminal system that the financial markets will use. Its RADR [go]

The Radar Logic web site is chock full of information about the products that we provide. Here’s a brochure about Radar Logic and the services we offer institutional investors.

Dottie Herman of Prudential Douglas Elliman writes about it…

Tags: Dottie Herman

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The PDF version of the 2Q 2007 Manhattan Market Overview [Miller Samuel] that I write for Prudential Douglas Elliman is available for download. I have been writing these market reports for them since 1994.

Here is some additional information from Prudential Douglas Elliman’s CEO/President Dottie Herman covering the 2Q 07 report release. Since she purchased PDE four years ago, she has been unwavering in her support of my requirement to remain independent in the preparation of these reports (and of course, it goes without saying that I am also able to remain dull and boring).

In addition, you can see the methodology that went into the report including the neighborhood boundaries and the type of content we have available.

You can also build your own custom data tables using the aggregate report data (from 1Q 89 through 2Q 2007) and view a series of quarterly market charts, most related to the current market report.

An excerpt

…The number of Manhattan apartment sales are at record levels. Listing inventory has fallen sharply from recent highs. Two of three price indicators tracked in this study set records. Days on market and listing discount indicators are contracting. In contrast, national housing statistics, while not reflective of individual markets, show just the opposite. The New York City economy continues to show improvement coming after two consecutive years of record Wall Street bonus payouts. Preliminary indicators from the financial services sector show more of the same strength bonus income in the coming year. Mortgage rates are low despite recent increases. The government is running a budget surplus, unemployment is low and the weak dollar has brought in significant foreign investment. The constant in the demand/supply equation has been new development activity, whose pace has not abated for the past three years. It contributed to the rise in inventory levels of 2005 and 2006, but the significant demand has more than offset new product added to the market in 2007. The relatively inelastic short term response to demand suggests that the high level of demand is something to focus on for the remainder of the year and through 2008.

Download report: [2Q 2007 Manhattan Market Overview [pdf]](https://www.millersamuel.com/reports/pdf-reports/MMO2Q07.pdf)

Tags: Dottie Herman, Wall Street Bonus

3 Comments

A new real estate conference is being offered for the Long Island market on October 19th. [Here’s the announcement](http://www.realestatenext.net/details.aspx):

[Click here for registration [$225]](http://www.realestatenext.net/documents.aspx)

A new, one-day real estate conference called “Real Estate Next: Key Trends in Residential Real Estate and What You Need to Know About the Changing Market on Long Island” is set to take place on Oct. 19, 2006 at the Long Island Marriott Hotel & Conference Center in Uniondale, N.Y.

Ron Roel, an accomplished former Deputy National Editor and Deputy Business Editor of Newsday is one of the conference organizers, invited me to participate in the conference. I am really looking forward to it.

I get to be a moderator for the opening morning session and on the panel for the lunch session.

_9:00 a.m.-9:50 a.m._
Opening Panel: Suburbia is Dead! Long Live Suburbia! Are Long Islanders Seeking a More Urban Lifestyle—and What Does That Mean for the Housing Market?
Moderator: Jonathan Miller, President, Miller Samuel
Panelists: Chris Jones, Vice President, Regional Plan Association
James Morgo, Suffolk County Commissioner, Economic Development and Workforce Housing
Ron Stein, President, Vision Long Island
Geri Solomon, Assistant Dean, Long Island Studies Institute, Hofstra University
John Venditto, Supervisor, Town of Oyster Bay

_Noon-2:00 p.m._
Lunch and Panel Discussion: Beyond the Bubble: Where is the Regional Housing Economy Headed Next Year?
Moderator: Ron Roel, Real Estate Next
Panelists: Jonathan Miller, President, Miller Samuel
Dottie Herman, CEO, Prudential Douglas Elliman
Robert Campbell, Professor of Real Estate and Finance, Hofstra University
Henry Weber, President, RE/MAX of New York
John Cameron, Managing Partner, Cameron Engineering
Dr. Thomas Conoscenti, Urban Regional Economist, New York University

Tags: Dottie Herman, Re/Max

1 Comment

Damon Darlin’s [The Last Stand of the 6-Percenters? [NYT]](http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/03/business/yourmoney/03real.html?ei=5070&en=afb381f38b8a869a&ex=1157428800&pagewanted=all) was a really great overview of new brokerage services that are being offered. The article was very informative. However, after reading it, the article made me wonder who on earth would ever use a traditional broker again? Its not what I think the intention of the piece was.

New technology and new business models were pitted against longstanding tradition and a proven track record. There was a great phrase in the article referring to the difficulty of innovation in the real estate brokerage industry:

It’s a thousand tiny shackles on innovation.

A valid point. Innovation can ruffle feathers.

Well, rather than the idea that full service brokers are obsolete, I think the takeaway should be that there is room for both the old and the new. Like [Dottie Herman, CEO of Prudential Douglas Elliman](http://www.prudentialelliman.com/MainSite/Company/DottieHerman.aspx) (the firm for whom I author their [market reports](https://www.millersamuel.com/reports/) for) said at Inman San Francisco: [Technology won’t replace agents, agents with technology will replace agents [RCG]](http://www.raincityguide.com/2006/09/02/i-am-tiger-woods/). Exactly.

The irony in all this is the fact that the housing boom coincided with new venture capital monies which provided the opportunity for so many real estate start-ups to in fact, start-up. In fact, I see this as more of a dotcom real estate boom, with so many legitimate business models, rather than most of the silliness we saw in the previous dotcom boom, where thoughts of actually turning a profit would be figured out later.

Some of these new real estate technology sites will fail as the housing markets cool or their idea doesn’t catch on, while others will survive and thrive. Change can be good but its kind of hard when the system in place has been around for a long time.

I find that one of the weaker arguments to the new real estate models has been the idea of cost savings. Despite the near monopoly of listings through traditional MLS systems, there is the assumption that its an even playing field. In other words, users of these discount brokers assume that the property gets exposed equally whether its a [Foxtons listing (remember Your Homes Direct?)](http://www.foxtons.com/), a [Redfin listing](http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/home?rt=tn-hb) or a full service listing, when in fact, I would speculate that it does not.

More eyeballs on a property, especially broker eyeballs, yield a higher chance for a higher price or simply a sale. In other words, a seller may be saving costs, but they could be working off a lower base (sales price) number because of the lower exposure. The cost savings seems to be more of a potential future benefit than at present and its not really comparing apples with apples (in theory it is, but not in practice). The MLS system is proprietary.

And what is it with [NAR and public relations](http://narblog1.realtors.org/mvtype/narinthenews/)? How can the NAR stir such ill will on a consistent basis? I continue to be amazed by their complacency and their disconnect with the public as an organization. Its tough to accept their word as gospel anymore. Even their current radio and TV ads about code of ethics seems to be too little too late. Its simply not fair to most realtors who are nice normal people and not the stereotype the profession has gained a rep for in recent years.

As a result, if you want to create a new real estate brokerage business model, now seems to be as good a time as ever.

Tags: Dottie Herman, Redfin, Radio, NAR, National Association of Realtors

3 Comments