Matrix Blog

Fun tonight!

I hear that 1,000+ people are registered to attend the Observer Living event (although I think the room where we are speaking is half that size).

8:00 PM – Panel #3: State of the Residential Market
Moderated by: Tom Acitelli, Location Editor, The New York Observer

Featuring:

• Ivanka Trump, EVP, The Trump Organization;
• Dottie Herman, President/CEO Prudential Douglas Elliman;
• Pam Liebman, CEO/President, Corcoran;
• Jonathan Miller, CEO/President, Miller Samuel

Topics:

• Pricing: The $1.8 Million Question
• Refinancing
• New Condos vs. Condos vs. Co-ops
• State o’ Things: Misconceptions and Perceptions
• Where to Buy in New York

Tomorrow morning at 7am on Bloomberg Radio am 1130 – I’ll be the first guest on Bloomberg Surveillence with Tom Keane and Ken Prewitt to kick off a show on the housing market. I listen to the show via podcast nearly every day – always interesting.

Tags: Dottie Herman, New York Observer, Corcoran, Radio

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The online version of the Prudential Douglas Elliman 1Q 2009 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview [Miller Samuel] is available for download. Sorry, but I was tardy posting this report to my site after the initial release and coverage.

I have been writing various incarnations of the New York regional market report series for Prudential Douglas Elliman since 1994. The President and CEO of Prudential Douglas Elliman, Dottie Herman, is a big believer in publishing market data to create more transparency for consumers in the markets her firm serves – Manhattan to Montauk.

To build Hamptons/North Fork custom data tables

To view Hamptons/North Fork charts

An excerpt

…There were 201 sales in the first quarter, down 49.8% from 400 sales in the same period last year and 72.9% from the same period five years ago, which had 742 sales. The number of sales dropped 44.6% from the prior quarter, which had a total of 363 sales. The slow down in activity is attributable to the credit crunch, employment and compensation concerns on Wall Street and recessionary economic conditions. As a result of the decline in the number of sales listing inventory expanded. There were 2,289 properties available for sale at the end of the first quarter, up 23.9% from 1,848 properties during the same period last year. The combination of rising inventory and declining sales resulted in a jump in the monthly absorption rate – the number of months to sell all existing inventory at the current pace of sales – to 34.2 months, from 13.9 months in the prior year quarter and up from 17.2 months in the prior quarter… on the high water mark set in their local market in the past few years, rather than in line with current conditions…

Download report: [1Q 2009 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview [pdf]](https://www.millersamuel.com/reports/pdf-reports/HNF1Q09.pdf)

Tags: Dottie Herman, Absorption

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The 1Q 2009 Long Island Market Overview that I author for Prudential Douglas Ellimanis available for download.

The President and CEO of Prudential Douglas Elliman, Dottie Herman, is a big believer in publishing market data to create more transparency for consumers in the market her firm serves – Manhattan to Montauk.

Other reports we prepare can be found here.

Customized tables for the 1Q 2009 Long Island [data](https://www.millersamuel.com/data) and a series of updated [charts](https://www.millersamuel.com/charts/index.php?Node=1176643103zmaCu) are available on our corporate site.

A report excerpt

…After peaking at 26,145 units in the second quarter of 2008, the number of listings has generally trended lower. There were 22,942 listings at the end of the first quarter, down 4.4% from 24,003 units in the same period last year. Listing inventory did rise 10.7% from the prior quarter, but this was a seasonal increase and lower than in four of the past five years during the same period. Inventory levels have been stabilizing over the past two years, however, the level of sales activity has been declining over the same period. There were 2,872 sales in the first quarter, 18.2% below the 3,513 sales of the same period a year ago. As a result, the monthly absorption – the number of months it would take to sell all existing inventory at the current pace of sales 9 was 24 months, up from 20.5 months in the same period last year…

Tags: Dottie Herman, Absorption

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Tags: Dottie Herman, Eye on Real Estate

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Last Saturday we launched our new radio show on WOR 710 called Eye on Real Estate which is a 2-hour talk radio format that airs live on Saturdays from 10am to Noon.

The show is co-hosted by Dottie Herman, Jeff Appel and myself. Dottie brings brokerage experience, Jeff brings mortgage experience and I bring valuation experience to the table. None of us had hosted a talk radio show before but all of us have done a lot of public speaking together on various housing issues so on paper it seemed like a good fit. I think it was.

WOR came up with the show name and their management staff is unbelievably well organized and professional. They made it easy. Their audience is reportedly in excess of 1M listeners which is pretty exciting. We’re camped out for two hours in a studio with boom mikes, guests, call in questions, an active chat room during the broadcast, a control room and all the other radio trimmings.

I think our biggest concern going into this was that no one would call in since we were just getting started. However, after the first commercial break we were all estatic as the phones lit up like Christmas Trees. Fun.

If you can’t get to a radio from 10am to 12 noon on Saturdays, just subscribe to the podcast – it is uploaded to the web a few hours after the show airs.

The show’s web site: www.wor710.com/realestate

And subscribe to the podcast

Tags: Dottie Herman, Eye on Real Estate, Radio

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The 1999-2008 Manhattan Market Report that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman was released today. (Perhaps releasing 3, 10-year reports on the same day is why I have been light on posts for the past week.)

I have dubbed this report “The Phonebook” for its 60 pages of data excess. This report is downloaded more than all other quarterly studies we produce, combined.

Dottie Herman, the President/CEO of Prudential Douglas Elliman whose name adorns the report is a big believer in historical information as a companion to cutting edge data to provide a better perspective.

Approximately 94,000 co-op and condo sales transactions from more than 6,400 buildings over the last ten years were analyzed. Each of the 53 different market areas was analyzed with data tables and charts as well as a summary matrix with prior year and prior decade comparisons.

An excerpt

…Despite weakening market conditions in the second half of 2008, all three price indicators trended higher this year, each setting records. The average sales price for a Manhattan apartment was $1,591,823 this year, up 17.8% from the $1,351,621 average sales price record set in 2007. The increase was skewed by the surge in higher priced sales, especially from new development activity. This year also marks the twelfth consecutive annual increase in the metric over the previous year beginning with the $399,501 average sales price in 1996. Median sales price exceeded the $900,000 threshold for the first time, rising 11% to a record $955,000 from a record $860,000 in 2007. Median sales price has risen for 13 consecutive years beginning in 1995 when this metric was $207,500. Price per square foot was a record $1,251 per square foot, 11.7% higher than the record $1,120 per square foot in 2007 and the third consecutive year this metric has remained above the $1,000 per square foot threshold. Price per square foot has increased over the prior year for the past twelve years…

Download the 1999-2008 Manhattan Market Report

Download other market reports prepared by Miller Samuel

Tags: Dottie Herman

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The 1999-2008 Manhattan Townhouse Report that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman was released today. Dottie Herman, the President/CEO of Prudential Douglas Elliman is pushing hard to make information more accessible to the public.

Approximately 2,500 Manhattan residential townhouse transactions were analyzed over this ten year period. 1, 2 and 3-5 (delivered vacant) family houses comprised the data set.

An excerpt

…The annual median sales price of a Manhattan townhouse was a record $4,995,000 this quarter, up 59.8% from the prior year $3,125,000 median sales price. Average sales price showed the same pattern, rising 58.3% to a record $7,372,987 from $4,658,155 over the prior year. Price per square foot reached a record this year, up 42% to $1,615 from $1,137 per square foot in the prior year. The sharp rise in price trends was due to price growth of the luxury market as well as the east side, which has a high concentration of luxury properties. There were 530 townhouses in listing inventory at the end of 2008, up 15.2% from 460 townhouses listed at the end of 2007. The expansion of inventory and decline in the number of sales is consistent with increased negotiability and longer marketing times…

Download the 1999-2008 Manhattan Townhouse Report

Download other market reports prepared by Miller Samuel

Tags: Dottie Herman

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The 2008 Prudential Douglas Elliman Hamptons/North Fork Market Report is now available for download. Dottie Herman, the President/CEO of Prudential Douglas Elliman is a big believer in market transparency, something rare in the real estate brokerage business.

I have been writing various incarnations of the New York regional market report series for Prudential Douglas Elliman since 1994 and this is the second time we have prepared a ten year report for the East End market. Its data heavy without the text. A recap of the past decade.

Guess what? Housing is cyclical.



Download the Prudential Douglas Elliman 2008 Hamptons/North Fork Market Report

Download other market reports prepared by Miller Samuel

Tags: Dottie Herman

Comments Off on [East End Around] 1999-2008 Hamptons/North Fork Report

The online version of the Prudential Douglas Elliman 4Q 2008 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview [Miller Samuel] is available for download. Sorry, but I was tardy posting this report to my site after the initial release and coverage.

I have been writing various incarnations of the New York regional market report series for Prudential Douglas Elliman since 1994. The President and CEO of Prudential Douglas Elliman, Dottie Herman, is a big believer in publishing market data to create more transparency for consumers in the markets her firm serves – Manhattan to Montauk.

To build Hamptons/North Fork custom data tables

To view Hamptons/North Fork charts

An excerpt

…The days on market averaged 150 this quarter, 16 days faster than the 166 days on market during the same period last year. “Casual sellers” are not listing their properties in significant numbers, which has helped temper the pace of rising inventory. In addition, the negotiability between buyers and sellers expanded significantly this quarter. The average listing discount was 15.4% from the list price at time of contract to the contract price, up from 8.1% during the same period last year. This indicator suggests that for most properties that go to contract, the seller has come down significantly to reach current market levels. This is further evidenced by the 35% listing discount from the original list price. Sellers continue to be behind the market and are inclined to price property based on the high water mark set in their local market in the past few years, rather than in line with current conditions…

Download report: [4Q 2008 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview [pdf]](https://www.millersamuel.com/reports/pdf-reports/HNF4Q08.pdf)

Tags: Dottie Herman

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The 4Q 2008 Queens Market Overview that I author for Prudential Douglas Ellimanis available for download.

The President and CEO of Prudential Douglas Elliman, Dottie Herman, is a big believer in publishing market data to create more transparency for consumers in the market her firm serves – Manhattan to Montauk.

Other reports we prepare can be found here.

Customized tables for the 4Q 2008 Queens [data](https://www.millersamuel.com/data) and a series of updated [charts](https://www.millersamuel.com/charts/index.php?Node=1225671404FFPKy) are available on our corporate site.

A report excerpt

…The regional economy and the continued difficultly for buyers to obtain financing continues to restrict the level of sales activity in the Queens housing market. Sellers continue to price property “behind” the market, while buyers who can get credit see less urgency in their purchase decision due to an increase in the number of properties to choose from. There were 39.1% fewer transactions in the quarter with a total of 2,737 compared to 4,491 sales in the same period last year. The number of sales is 52.7% below the level of activity seen two years ago. However, the number of listings slipped this quarter as compared to the prior year quarter. Listing inventory contracted 2.3% to 9,822 units from 10,053 units in the prior year quarter. Because listing inventory is expected to move in the opposite direction as the number of sales, this decline in inventory is believed to be an anomaly. However, the pattern suggests that there are fewer “casual sellers”…

The media coverage of the report is available here as they were obtained (in no particular order).

Tags: Dottie Herman

1 Comment

The 4Q 2008 Long Island Market Overview that I author for Prudential Douglas Ellimanis available for download.

The President and CEO of Prudential Douglas Elliman, Dottie Herman, is a big believer in publishing market data to create more transparency for consumers in the market her firm serves – Manhattan to Montauk.

Other reports we prepare can be found here.

Customized tables for the 4Q 2008 Long Island [data](https://www.millersamuel.com/data) and a series of updated [charts](https://www.millersamuel.com/charts/index.php?Node=1176643103zmaCu) are available on our corporate site.

A report excerpt

…For the second consecutive quarter, listing inventory has declined in addition to the contraction in the number of sales over the same period and the prior year quarter. There were 20,730 properties listed for sale at the end of the current quarter, down 0.3% from the same period last year with 20,801 properties listed at that time. The number of sales slipped 3.4% over the same period to 4,427 sales, from 4,584 sales. The stabilization of inventory combined with the decline in number of sales suggests that there are fewer Ã’casual sellersÓ with many opting to wait until housing market conditions improve before listing a property. The contraction of credit and the current recession continue to limit the number of sales, placing downward pressure on price trends…

The media coverage of the report is available here as they were obtained (in no particular order).

Tags: Dottie Herman

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Here’s a quick video snippet of the last two panels of the 2009 New York Inman Connect conference which is always a great time. I was invited to speak at the main session for the last panel of the conference.

The Real Deal magazine parsed out some of the conversations, specifically from Dottie Herman and moi.

Tags: Dottie Herman

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