Matrix Blog

The 2Q 2006 Manhattan Market Overview that my appraisal firm, [Miller Samuel](https://www.millersamuel.com), prepares for [Prudential Douglas Elliman](http://www.prudentialelliman.com), was released today. Each quarter I place links throughout the day of publication to make it easy to compare how each media outlet (big and small media, blogs) presents the exact same set of data.

Even more interesting to me is how the other real estate brokerage companies who write alternative reports, frame their comments in the articles. While I have not had access to their specific results, I understand that some of the statistics such as average sales price, differed from the results in our report. Some of the reporters that cover the real estate market in New York have expressed frustration at trying to discern what actually happened this quarter.

To view the actual [data](https://www.millersamuel.com/data) and [charts](https://www.millersamuel.com/charts) (going live by noon Friday 7-7-07). The [actual report pdf will be available next week](https://www.millersamuel.com/reports).

This list is in no particular order and were generally presented when I found them. I included some of the duplicate news feeds because I found it interesting who picked up the story. I will keep adding to the list through the remainder of the week.

[Little Shift in Prices of Manhattan Apartments [NYT]](http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/06/nyregion/06real.html?_r=1&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&adxnnlx=1152176161-iZAH5p72OAppi6NxdAtzWg)
[Manhattan Has Most Apartments for Sale Since 1994, Report Says [Bloomberg]](http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aU4XFcYKAYTE&refer=us)
[Mixed messages on Manhattan home prices [CNN/Money]](http://money.cnn.com/2006/07/06/real_estate/manhattan_prices_iffy/index.htm)
[Manhattan apt. price hits record [NY Daily News]](http://www.nydailynews.com/business/story/432702p-364622c.html)
[Disparities in Manhattan apartment prices show a market that is neither booming nor busting [NY Newsday]](http://www.newsday.com/business/ny-bzreal064807760jul06,0,5664699.story?coll=ny-business-print)
[Condo Expectations May Be Rethought As Prices Plunge [NY Sun]](http://www.nysun.com/article/35479?page_no=1)
[Manhattan apartment prices leap despite sales drop [Reuters]](http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2006-07-06T043417Z_01_N05280414_RTRUKOC_0_US-PROPERTY-NEWYORK.xml&archived=False)
[Manhattan real estate inventory grows [Inman]](http://www.inman.com/inmannews.aspx?ID=54094)
[NYC Housing Prices Keep Climbing [TheStreet.com]](http://www.thestreet.com/_googlen/markets/realestate/10295183.html?cm_ven=GOOGLEN&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA)
[Manhattan condos again outsell co-ops [The Real Deal]](http://www.therealdeal.net/breaking_news/2006/07/05/1152132992.php)
[Sales drop, prices rise in Manhattan market [The Real Deal]](http://www.therealdeal.net/breaking_news/2006/07/05/1152132992.php)
[2nd Quarter 2006: “The Boom is Done” [The Real Estate]](http://therealestate.observer.com/2006/07/2nd-quarter-2006-the-boom-is-done.html)
[Manhattan housing prices up [USAToday (Miller Samuel)]](https://www.millersamuel.com/press/view.php?V=1152198047iISSF)
[Brokerages Submit Reports, Hope to Avoid Summer School [Curbed]](http://www.curbed.com/archives/2006/07/06/brokerages_submit_reports_hope_to_avoid_summer_school.php)
[Manhattan Apartment Price Hits Record Highs [All Headline News]](http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/7004134834)
[Investing: Rising rates depress N.Y. apartment sales [IHT]](http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/07/06/bloomberg/bxinvest.php)

_Duplicate News Feeds_
[Sales mellow in Manhattan [Houston Chronicle]](http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/4032692.html)
[Manhattan apartment prices leap despite sales drop [Yahoo News]](http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060706/us_nm/property_newyork_dc_1)
[Manhattan has most apartments for sale since 1994 [The Journal News (Westchester, NY)]](http://www.thejournalnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060707/BUSINESS01/607070354/1066)
[Manhattan apartment prices leap despite sales drop [Washington Post]](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/06/AR2006070600030.html)
[Sales of Manhattan apartments falling [Sun-Sentinel]](http://www.sun-sentinel.com/business/local/sfl-zmanhattan07jul07,0,5055822.story?coll=sfla-business-headlines)
[Apartments On The Market In Manhattan Hit 12-Year High [Tampa Tribune]](http://www.tbo.com/news/money/MGBCJ39UBPE.html)
[Manhattan apartment prices leap despite sales drop [MSN Money]](http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.asp?feed=OBR&Date=20060706&ID=5845905)
[Manhattan apartment prices leap despite sales drop [7KPLC (Lake Charles, Louisiana)]](http://www.kplctv.com/Global/story.asp?S=5117604&nav=0nqx)
[Manhattan apartment prices leap despite sales drop [Wave3 (Louisville, Kentucky)]](http://www.wave3.com/Global/story.asp?S=5117604&nav=0RZF)

Here are a handful of radio and tv spots as well – more to come.

[[Bloomberg TV]](https://www.millersamuel.com/press/view.php?V=1152217584nZZzm)

[[WPIX WB11]](https://www.millersamuel.com/press/view.php?V=1152205902HyQln)

[Morning Call [Bloomberg TV]](https://www.millersamuel.com/press/view.php?V=1152206175xZucz)

[Bloomberg Morning Markets [Bloomberg TV]](https://www.millersamuel.com/press/view.php?V=1152206399USXHi)

[Squawk Box [CNBC]](https://www.millersamuel.com/press/view.php?V=1152206542EnnNB)

[News at Ten [WB11]](https://www.millersamuel.com/press/view.php?V=1152400841fiAje)

[News at 5 [Fox 5]](https://www.millersamuel.com/press/view.php?V=1152401325YefhA)

[WSJ Report [WCBS Radio]](https://www.millersamuel.com/press/view.php?V=1152206747BhrMI)
[NPR poor fidelity – better clip coming [WNYC]](https://www.millersamuel.com/press/view.php?V=1152206894TnsIA)

Tags: FHA, CNBC, New York Observer, Radio

4 Comments

The [data tables](https://www.millersamuel.com/data) on our web site [MillerSamuel.com](https://www.millersamuel.com/) are now (finally) current. You can build custom tables of all the aggregate market data we have been including in our [market report series](https://www.millersamuel.com/reports) going back to 1989.

Build your custom [data tables here:](https://www.millersamuel.com/data)

_Sample Output_

_Background on this that is pretty trivial_
Since 1997 when we launched the site, I had been diligent about keeping the data current until Q3 05 when, I had a grandiose idea to make some internal changes to my web site and alter the way my aggregate data was to be presented. Of course, I had 17 other seemingly grandiose ideas and this one eventually took a back burner position. During this time, I failed to have the aggregate data section of my web site updated after Q3 05 – I was simply overloaded.

I kept thinking… next week …but next week never came.

Over the past 3 months, I was averaging about 2 requests per day from pension funds, REITS, commercial banks, hedge funds, bond traders, government agencies, investors as well as individuals from around the country asking for the specific data for Q4 05 and Q1 06 to be placed in the data section of our site. I had failed to appreciate how much people were depending on the information.

The requests ranged from the very nice to the downright nasty/entitled. The latter all the more surprising since this is a free service, for now anyway [wink]. Its amazing how much more information you can get when you are simply polite and respectful.

I’ll keep it current.

The second quarter is nearly upon us.

1 Comment

The crew at Sellsius sent me a link to a story they posted [NYC Seller Offers 10% Real Estate Commission](http://blog.sellsiusrealestate.com/?p=1083). It wasn’t just a post about a 10% listing as a novel marketing technique to differentiate the property. They called and interviewed the listing broker to get more insight, which only helped enhance the post. Good stuff.

They sent me an email directly – not part of a bulk email, suggesting that I post an article about the 10% commission and link to it. While I was appreciative of the gesture, I am not crazy about posts about posts unless they are really funny, quirky or part of a bigger topic in a post I am presenting. But frankly, I got side tracked and never did anything about the post. However, the story was covered by a number of other blogs I like to read so I suspect they were emailed the same way. Sellsius’ soft sell strategy was therefore successful:

• [10% Commission? Another trend? [UrbanDigs]](http://www.urbandigs.com/2006/06/10_commission_a.html)
  
• [CurbedWire: Big Commission [Curbed]](http://www.curbed.com/archives/2006/06/22/curbedwire_big_commission_green_brooklyn_old_folks.php)
  
• [Mo Money, Mo Money, Mo Money: Seller jacks up the commission [PropertyGrunt]](http://propertygrunt.blogspot.com/2006/06/mo-money-mo-money-mo-money-seller.html)
  
• [Calling all Brokers/agents [NYHouses4Sale]](http://nyhouses4sale.typepad.com/ny_houses_4_sale/2006/06/calling_all_bro.html)

Just like the broker in the 10% listing story, [Sellsius](http://blog.sellsiusrealestate.com/) probably generated more traffic by approaching their marketing a little differently and each blog enhanced the content of the original post. Still, it bothered me.

That being said, it was still a good post about a changing real estate market.

5 Comments

Source: Curbed

In The Stalwart, one of my daily must-reads, the post When Property Development Is Outlawed, Only Outlaws Will Develop Property [The Stalwart], talks future development in the aftermath of the Greenpoint, Brooklyn fire [Curbed] that destroyed a bunch of property but could have actually killed many if the wind was in a different direction.

I remember seeing a similar slogan on a billboard as a teenager, on a bike trip through Wyoming: The west wasn’t won with a registered gun. When guns are outlawed, only outlaws will have guns.

These warehouses had been abandoned for some time, and surely the red-tape in getting approval from various board was taking years. Not to mention, there’s a claque of preservationists here who want to keep every abandoned building, truckyard, and empty factory as some sort of memorial to the past.

The trade-off here is that the difficulty in development, provides a large up front risk and cost. What does the difficulty in the development process do to housing costs? It makes them much more expensive. No wonder the only thing that can be built in Manhattan without significant government intervention is luxury housing (although incentives still remain).

Comments Off on Lighting A Fire Under The Development Process

• [Jane Jacobs, Social Critic Who Redefined and Championed Cities, Is Dead at 89 [NYT]](http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/26/books/26jacobs.html)
  
• [Jane Jacobs [Wikipedia]](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jane_Jacobs)
  
• [Jane Jacobs, 1916-2006 [AFH]](http://www.affordablehousinginstitute.org/blogs/us/2006/04/jane_jacobs_191.html)
  
• [Brooklyn: Kicking Demographic Ass Since 1920 [Gothamist]](http://www.gothamist.com/archives/2006/04/18/brooklyn_kickin.php)
  
• [Gothamist: Photo of the Day: 1980s Love [Gothamist]](http://www.gothamist.com/archives/2006/04/21/photo_of_the_da_6.php)
  
• [Best Places to Retire Near Metro Areas [REJ]](http://www.realestatejournal.com/buysell/relocation/20060424-coombes.html)
  
• [Upset Before Settlement [WaPo]](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/04/21/AR2006042100855.html)
  
• [Rents heading up in ’06 [CNN/Money]](http://money.cnn.com/2006/04/18/real_estate/apartment_rents_head_higher/index.htm)
  
• [Timeshares, Pro and Con (mostly Con) [Searchlight Crusade]](http://www.searchlightcrusade.net/posts/1143483812.shtml)
  
• [Fed bank regions report on conditions [BW]](http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D8H7SUD00.htm?campaign_id=alerts)
  
• [Selling Your Home in Trickier Times [BW]](http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/apr2006/pi20060427_101521.htm?campaign_id=alerts)
  

Comments Off on Friday Link ‘n Log

I was a bit tardy getting these posted online, but here are the [PDF versions of our two latest market reports](https://www.millersamuel.com/reports/) that I write for [Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE]](http://www.prudentialelliman.com).

In addition, you can see the [methodology]) that went into the reports including the [neighborhood boundaries](https://www.millersamuel.com/reports/neighborhood-boundaries-popup.shtml) and the [type of content](https://www.millersamuel.com/data/legend-popup.php) we have available. You can also [build your own custom data tables](https://www.millersamuel.com/data) here [aggregate data for 1Q 2006 will be available online early next week in this data section):

[1Q 2006 Manhattan Market Overview [pdf]](https://www.millersamuel.com/reports/pdf-reports/PDE1Q06.pdf)

A quarterly survey of more than 2,000 Manhattan co-op and condo sales.

Although the three price indicators showed growth over the prior year quarter and the prior quarter, price per square foot best characterizes market conditions for the current quarter since it is least impacted by the shift in unit mix toward larger apartments this quarter. The average price per square foot of $1,004 was the highest ever recorded in this study but was essentially unchanged from the prior quarter result of $1,002 for a 0.2% increase. The average sales price and median sales price jumped 9.6% and 8.6% respectively over the prior quarter. The average sales price was one of the highest on record at $1,300,928, second only to the second quarter of 2005 when the average sales price set an all-time record of $1,317,528. This indicator was 7.1% above the prior year quarter average sales price of $1,214,379. Median sales price saw a similar pattern, setting a record at $825,000 in the current quarter, up 17% over the prior year quarter median sales price of $705,000. The contradiction in the average price per square foot compared to these indicators was due to a shift in the mix of apartments to larger units that sold for the quarter…

[Manhattan Market Report 1996-2005 [pdf]](https://www.millersamuel.com/reports/pdf-reports/PDE05.pdf)

More than 80,000 co-op and condo sales transactions from more than 6,400 buildings over the last ten years were analyzed. Each of the 53 different market areas was analyzed with data tables and charts as well as a summary matrix with prior year and prior decade comparisons.

The Manhattan market saw record prices in all major price categories: Average sales price, average price per square foot and median sales price. All categories saw year-over-year gains in excess of 20%. Average sales price remained above $1,000,000 and set a record of $1,221,265, increasing 21.6% over the price year average of $1,004,232. Average price per square foot set a record at $965, increasing 25.8% over the prior year average price per square foot of $767. Median sales price set a record at $750,000, increasing 23.8% over the prior year median sales price of $605,859.With all three price indicators showing similar percentage gains, there were broad-based price increases across most market categories. One of the distinctive characteristics of the market in 2005 was the decline in the number of transactions. A modest increase in mortgage rates and double-digit price gains have reduced affordability. Mortgage rates were above the prior year but are still below levels seen ten years ago. Analysts expect fixed and adjustable rates to increase slightly in the first half of 2006 as the economy continues to improve but the shift in the housing market to more modest price gains may keep further near term rate gains in check…

Comments Off on Manhattan Market Reports Available For Download

[The Real Deal has innovated the delivery of information about the New York real estate market in its magazine and online format to its readership. This is part of a series of podcasts on the state of the Manhattan housing market. -ed]

Jonathan Miller

[Is the Manhattan housing market cooling or is it still hot? [TRD]](http://www.therealdeal.net/weekly_interview.php)

The [podcast format](http://wiki.ucalgary.ca/index.php/Podcasting) allows me to summarize the results of the just completed 1st Quarter 2006 Prudential Douglas Elliman Manhattan market Overview without rattling off a bunch of statistics – those you can get from my report which will be [posted on my web site shortly](https://www.millersamuel.com/reports).

2 Comments

The 1Q 2006 Manhattan Market Overview that my appraisal firm, [Miller Samuel](https://www.millersamuel.com), prepares for [Prudential Douglas Elliman](http://www.prudentialelliman.com), was released today. I always think its interesting (actually, its fun) to see how the various media outlets (Big and Small Media, Blogs) respond to the exact same set of data and how the real estate brokerage companies who write alternative reports, frame their comments.

This list is in no particular order and excluded all the redundant articles (ie news feeds). I will keep adding to it through the week after the initial post.

[Apartment Prices Up Again After a Slump in Manhattan [NYT]](http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/04/nyregion/04housing.html)
[Housing frenzy slows down[NYDN]](http://www.nydailynews.com/business/story/405603p-343485c.html)
[Wall Street bonuses lift Manhattan apartment prices [Reuters]](http://today.reuters.com/business/newsArticle.aspx?type=ousiv&storyID=2006-04-04T053356Z_01_N03305063_RTRIDST_0_BUSINESSPRO-CONSTRUCTION-MANHATTAN-DC.XML)
[Reports: Luxury Housing Boom May Be Reaching Its Crest [NY Sun]](http://www.nysun.com/article/30306)
[First Quarter Reports: Thousand Island [NYO The Real Estate]](http://therealestate.observer.com/2006/04/first-quarter-reports-thousand-island.html)
[Housing market still steady [NY Newsday]](http://www.newsday.com/business/ny-bzapar044689161apr04,0,1077170.story?coll=ny-business-headlines)
[City Apts. Defy U.S. Bubble Trouble [New York Post]](http://www.nypost.com/news/regionalnews/66406.htm)
[Condo boom boosts Manhattan real estate market [Inman News]](http://www.inman.com/inmannews.aspx?ID=50861)
[Manhattan housing market shows weakness [CNN/Money]](http://money.cnn.com/2006/04/03/real_estate/manhattan_housing_prices_sluggish/index.htm)
[Manhattan Apartment Sales Cool Off [TheStreet.com]](http://www.thestreet.com/_googlen/markets/realestate/10277177.html?cm_ven=GOOGLEN&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA)
[Manhattan Apartment Prices Climb at Slowest Pace in Three Years [Bloomberg]](http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=email_us&refer=us&sid=aoXO2P263swQ) [IMMOBILIARE: SALE, SI SGONFIA OPPURE CROLLA [Wall Street Italia]](http://www.wallstreetitalia.com/articolo.asp?ART_ID=367343)
[Manhattan housing market booms in first quarter [The Real Deal]](http://www.therealdeal.net/breaking_news/2006/04/04/1144151403.php)
[State o’ the Market Update: Through Thick and Thin, ‘Essentially Flat’ [Curbed]](http://www.curbed.com/archives/2006/04/04/state_o_the_market_update_through_thick_and_thin_essentially_flat.php)
[Brokers say New York real estate market is cooling [Financial Times]](http://news.ft.com/cms/s/5c098a34-c3fa-11da-bc52-0000779e2340.html)
[Wall Street Bonuses Fuel Manhattan Real Estate Surge [DJ]](no link)
[A game of telephone [Property Grunt]](http://propertygrunt.blogspot.com/2006/04/game-of-telephone.html)
[Manhattan Market Up, Psychology Down in Q1 [Brownstoner]](http://brownstoner.com/brownstoner/archives/2006/04/manhattan_marke.html)
[Real Estate Rashomon [Walk-Through]](http://walkthrough.nytimes.com/?p=481)

Here are a handful of radio and tv clips as well.

[[Bloomberg TV]](https://www.millersamuel.com/press/view.php?V=1144249244VBafH)

[[WNBC-TV]](https://www.millersamuel.com/press/view.php?V=1144249378fYfdg)

[[WPIX WB11]](https://www.millersamuel.com/press/view.php?V=1144249545tLugZ)

[[WABC-TV]](https://www.millersamuel.com/press/view.php?V=1144249705YFiAU)

[[WCBS Radio]](https://www.millersamuel.com/press/view.php?V=1144249819izKqD)

Tags: Brownstoner, Wall Street Bonus, New York Observer, Radio

6 Comments

The Stamford Review, Spring/Summer 2006 is the third issue and was just released. It can be [downloaded for free on their web site after a simple registration](http://www.stamfordreview.com/downloads-current.php) or hard copies can be purchased for a nominal fee. The intention of the publication was to bring together a diverse group of writers who are passionate about their topics to write about issues that affect New York City real estate, land use, architecture, and urban affairs.

See the author list below.

Shameless plug: I wrote two articles for this publication The Gentrification of Manhattan and Manhattan’s Housing Market and the Media

I hope you enjoy them.

Larry Sicular is the editor and has been a professional colleague of mine for 20 years. The journal, which is a labor of love for him, takes a monumental effort to coordinate, edit and publish and I truly appreciated the opportunity to be in it.

In the introduction of the publication, Larry describes the current issue as being:

…about the reconfiguration of New York City, a physical transformation that has been fueled by a mixture of population growth, increased affluence, and an unusually strong housing market. What is happening here is mirrored to varying degrees in successful cities elsewhere in this nation and across the globe.

Here, nine experts praise and critique city government’s efforts to guide this transformation, to meet and balance growing demands for market housing, affordable housing, open space, industrial space, and historic preservation. Even as the housing market softens, these policies will have long-term effects and will continue to be debated.

In recent years it has been easy to forget Jonathan Miller’s reminder that twenty years ago Manhattan’s housing market relied on government tax policy to stimulate demand. Julia Vitullo-Martin applauds the results of public and institutional investment in the Bronx, but she notes that destructive government policies helped depress the borough in the first place.

Much of our attention is drawn to the city’s extensive rezoning of former industrial areas on the Brooklyn waterfront and the west side of Manhattan. Frank Braconi questions whether these initiatives are sufficient to meet the needs of our growing population, while Kimberly Miller and Mark Alexander address what will be required to make the rezonings a success. Peter Beck shows us that limited public resources, directed to these areas for affordable housing, could perhaps be more effectively spent, while Lisa Kersavage shows us how rezoning need not have cost us valuable historic resources. Pamela Hannigan praises the city policy that is creating new industrial business zones in order to preserve and stimulate the valuable manufacturing resources that remain.

And then there is Governors Island. Is there a greater possibility for adding a jewel in our crown than the history and open spaces that this island offers and represents? Our third issue is dedicated to the possibilities of Governors Island.

Comments Off on Reconfiguring New York City: A Series Of Articles In The Journal The Stamford Review

Here is my Wednesday post for Curbed, the mother and father of all real estate web logs.

Curbed: Three Cents Worth: Listing Inventory Gets In The Red Zone

An archive of previous posts can be found [here.](http://matrix.millersamuel.com/?page_id=184)

Tags: Three Cents Worth, Curbed NY, 3CW

Comments Off on Curbed: Three Cents Worth: Listing Inventory Gets In The Red Zone

Here is my Wednesday post for Curbed, the mother of all real estate web logs.

Curbed: Three Cents Worth: Manhattan Stands Tall

An archive of previous posts can be found [here.](http://matrix.millersamuel.com/?page_id=184)

Tags: Three Cents Worth, Curbed NY, 3CW

Comments Off on Curbed: Three Cents Worth: Manhattan Stands Tall

In Daniel Gross wrote a great post in Slate called: [Are Journalists Underpaid? : Pity the sad, broke New York Times reporter [Slate].](http://www.slate.com/id/2132709/) Let me answer that quickly: “Duhhh!!” They are writing stories about some of the most expensive real estate in the world, not forgetting the difficulty and scrutiny their work entails.

The recent real estate article by Jennifer Steinhauer called [New York, Once a Lure, Is Slowly Losing the Creative Set [NYT]](http://www.nytimes.com/2005/12/18/nyregion/18creative.html?adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1135135602-9AizdbNdX0+7Debow/xsZQ&pagewanted=print) addresses this point quite clearly.

In a related pattern, the eventual loss of early artisans who pioneered downtown urban locations as residential usually get priced out by hipsters only to start the cycle again somewhere else. This has been occurring with more frequency as urban areas entice residents from outlying suburban areas into their revitalized downtown markets.

The New York Times article, while a fascinating piece, doesn’t quantify the loss, but I suspect it is significant. I haven’t found great data on this yet, so perhaps its too early in the cycle to measure. This phenomenon happened in New York long ago with loft neighborhoods such as Soho, Tribeca, more recently Chelsea and moved on to parts of Brooklyn and now So Bro (South Bronx.)

Enticing the creative to remain is one of the most important issues to sustain urban revitalization efforts in the long term.

Tags: Dan Gross

1 Comment