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Real Estate Jargon Watch: Gazumping

March 17, 2014 | 8:00 am |

Every so often I hear this particular word used in real estate and I cringe. It is both awful and heartbreaking because it instills fear in the hearts of buyers in a market devoid of adequate listing inventory but yet is equally annoying.

Gazumping:

when a seller (especially of property) accepts an oral offer of the asking price from one potential buyer, but then accepts a higher offer from someone else. It can also refer to the seller raising the asking price at the last minute, after previously orally agreeing to a lower one. In either case, the original buyer is left in the lurch, and either has to offer a higher price or lose the purchase.

It’s widely used in the UK and Australia but not that popular in the US. There is “Ghost Gazumping” in the UK and “anti-gazumping” laws in Australia.

However given NYC’s global connections, I hear it used more than I’d care to and find it absolutely annoying. We need a replacement word or phrase as soon as possible (aside from “the seller screwed us despite accepting our offer and went with a higher one.”)

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Safety First: Explaining Flood of Asian Investors Into Western Real Estate

March 15, 2014 | 12:50 pm | |

This is a good interview with Alistair Elliott, senior partner and chairman at Knight Frank by Josh Noble of FT about the buying binge of Asian investors in many major global cities like London, Vancouver, Sydney and New York City…”mature financial cities.”

Institutional investors come first, then developers and then private investors. The phenomenon is at it’s very early stages.

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2014 Knight Frank Wealth Report Goes Interstellar

March 6, 2014 | 1:00 am | |

PIRI2014
Source: Knight Frank

Knight Frank just released their 2014 Wealth Report which takes a look at the investment trends for ultra high net worth individuals (aka UHNWI’s defined as $30M+). It’s chock full of investment insights, including real estate. We provided some data/insight to the report (translation: a very tiny portion). Yesterday I mentioned their crazy new Asteroid Index yesterday.

Here are a few topics covered in the report:

kfglobalwealthdistribution
Source: Knight Frank [click to expand]

kfcityrank
Source: Knight Frank

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Impact of Lehman Collapse on Housing Prices in Europe

September 13, 2013 | 3:52 pm | |


Source: Knight Frank [click chart to expand]

This chart could also be called “Why International Demand for US housing is Elevated” since many European investors are looking for safe places to park their money.

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[Country Life article] Once upon a time in the American market

September 10, 2013 | 9:11 pm | |

I wrote a brief article for Country Life Magazine – a weekly glossy magazine based in the UK but distributed globally. Country Life is a beautiful publication chock full of luxury housing imagery. This edition (9/4/2013) had a US property focus to which I gave an brief overview of the US housing market over the past decade.

Note: I agreed to allow the editors “Briticise” my writing to match their audience but I had final approval of the content. So if you notice anything, ie Mortgage criteria” v. “Mortgage underwriting guidelines”, that’s why. 😉

Once upon a time in the American market:
Jonathan Miller retraces the history of the American property crash and examines what is driving fresh price rises [Read the article]

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Interview on CCTV America, State of Fannie Mae

April 4, 2013 | 7:25 am | | TV, Videos |


[click to play – starts at 13:50]

I spoke with Michelle Makori on the state of Fannie Mae (who just reported a record profit). CCTV America is part of China Central Television (CCTV), the largest television broadcaster in China.

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The 4Q12 Miami Housing Market Translated: Economics, Spanish & Portuguese

February 2, 2013 | 10:20 pm | | Reports |

South Florida-based Douglas Elliman has translated the 4Q 2012 Elliman Report: Miami Sales that I prepare (I only took high school French) to Spanish and Portuguese, reflective of the significant demand from South Americans.

Elliman Report: Miami Sales (Spanish) | Elliman Report: Miami Sales (Portuguese)

[click to open reports]


Elliman Report: Miami Sales (Spanish) 4Q 2012 [Douglas Elliman]
Elliman Report: Miami Sales (Portuguese) 4Q 2012 [Douglas Elliman]
Elliman Report: Miami Sales (English) 4Q 2012 [Douglas Elliman]


In the Context of Income, New York Prices Housing Prices are a Steal

January 28, 2013 | 8:00 am | |

Prices by themselves don’t tell the story of affordability. Income has something to do with it. Candy bars were only 20¢ in 1978 but I was only making $2.65 at my college job.

Catherine Rampell of NYT Economix blog posts a cool chart on the ratio of house price to annual household income from the IMF.

Housing prices are crazy expensive in Asia.

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[Knight Frank] Global Reports That Look Forward and Backward : Europe As Denominator

December 13, 2012 | 9:35 am | | Reports |


[click to open report]

Where we’ve been

Knight Frank’s Global House Price Index is published quarterly and tracks the performance of mainstream national housing markets around the world. They use Case Shiller results for the US market.

Europe at bottom:

With the Eurozone now in its second recession in three years buyer confidence is at an all-time low and it is no coincidence that all the bottom 12 rankings are occupied by European countries this quarter.

The top performers:

But it’s not all bad news. Six markets recorded double-digit annual price growth in the year to September; Brazil, Hong Kong, Turkey, Russia, Colombia and Austria.

Where we’re going


[click to open report]

I help provide their Manhattan and Miami insights and they liked the way I characterize the state of luxury housing as a “safe-haven” and the “new international currency.” Here are the top line observations in their Q4 12 Prime Global Forecast:

• In 2013, we expect prime residential prices across the 14 cities included in our forecast to rise by 2.5% on average, with Moscow, Miami and Dubai being the strongest performers.
• A sharp slowdown in the global economy is the highest risk for the world’s prime residential markets closely followed by government cooling measures.
• However, the current economic uncertainty is also considered a key driver of demand in prime cities as HNWIs seek the shelter of ‘safe-haven’ investments.
• Supply, or the lack of it, will be a key determinant of price performance in cities such as New York, Moscow and Miami in 2013.
• We envisage that government-imposed regulatory measures will keep a lid on price growth in Asia in 2013 but the west-east shift in the economic balance of power suggests more promising prospects in the medium term.



Q3 12 Global House Price Index [Knight Frank]
Q4 12 Prime Global Forecast [Knight Frank]

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Looking For That Ray – Knight Frank’s Sunshine Index

December 7, 2012 | 7:00 am | | Reports |


[click to open WSJ article]

As a followup to my analysis of light on property values, I came across this fun way to look at the market.

…real-estate consulting firm Knight Frank looked at 14 warm-weather vacation spots around the world. Using the average hours of sunlight per day and the average house price for a four-bedroom property in a prime real-estate location, Knight Frank arrived at the price for an hour of sunshine, averaged over a year…

Of course this is merely another way to slice and dice the high end housing market – just like the stock market – not scientific or useful but still fascinating – Florida looks like a pretty good deal.



Knight Frank Sunshine Index [WSJ]


Knight Frank GHPI 3Q12 – Brazil up 15.2%, Greece down 11.7% YOY

December 5, 2012 | 9:46 pm | | Reports |

No surprises here. Knight Frank’s Global Home Price Index comprehensive ranking of housing price changes in 55 countries showed Brazil and it’s economic boom at the top of the list. The Brazilians have jump started the Miami housing market nearly single handedly because housing prices at home remain so high that the US appears much cheaper.

Highlights

  • The index rose 1% year-over-year
  • European countries fill bottom twelve rankings for YOY price growth
  • Price growth in Asia Pacific is slowing



Global House Price Index 3Q12 [Knight Frank]

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Housing Bubble – Canada Is Following US Lead

December 5, 2012 | 7:00 am | | TV, Videos |

A friend of mine shared this video with me, a speech by Pierre Poilievre, MP for Nepean-Carleton, on April 4, 2012, spoke on behalf of the Government on Budget 2012. He is incredibly eloquent, insisting that Canada is not going down the path that the US took. Yet here’s a sobering headline.

Of course, he’s wrong. Even back well before April of this year you could see the froth in cities like Toronto. In Vancouver, sales have now fallen sharply.

Earlier this year I was quoted in the Toronto Star as some sort of bubble veteran that broached the subject of a bubble and I was not surprised to hear the same rationale we heard in the US. Toronto new development was focused on small units to be purchased by investors to rent or flip although defenders rationalized that was how workers would move to the city to expand the economy. Deja vu.

Many believe that Canada is different because prices will only fall for the next few years unlike the US where it was a 6 year fall (2006-2012).

Well, that is still a correction or bubble for nearly the same reasons as the US: government policy, speculation and cheap credit.

My eureka moment

I have long thought that all the housing shows on HGTV ie “Property Brothers”, “Holmes on Homes” etc. were filmed in Canada instead of the US because production costs were cheaper – no! My theory: After the US market tanked in 2006, production was much easier in a housing market where prices were rising, marketing times were fast and credit was readily available. That’s why these shows have continued where “flip this house” in California left off….for now.

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