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TV, Videos
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I had a nice discussion with Tom Keene, Sara Eisen and Alix Steel, along with guest host Byron Wien, vice chairman of Blackstone Group LP’s advisory services on the state of US housing and the latest Case Shiller numbers.
More importantly, I’m still the mayor of Bloomberg TV’s Green Room on Foursquare.
Tags: Case-Shiller, Bloomberg TV, Bloomberg Surveillance, Cash, Television
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Zillow to acquire @StreetEasy, New York’s leading real estate website, for $50 million http://t.co/iDdfELDNzN #NewYork #RealEstate
— Zillow (@zillow) August 19, 2013
I was reading my twitter feed and it just jumped out at me: Zillow announced their acquisition of StreetEasy for $50M in cash. I also heard it simultaneously on the show Bloomberg Surveillance. Their CEO Spencer Rascoff will be on the show tomorrow morning to talk about the acquisition.
While there will be lots of prognosticating about Zillow‘s entrance into the NYC housing market through a heavily used resource like StreetEasy (Zillow was here already, just not taken very seriously).
I think there’s a bigger story for Zillow. If Zillow leverages the StreetEasy data presentation model, Zillow will be shaking up the housing market real estate information space across the US.
Think highrise urban housing markets – I call them “vertical” markets (not to be confused with “vertical” in marketing parlance).
• All national data aggregators and brokerage companies haven’t yet figured out vertical housing markets yet in terms of their presentation of information.
• MLS systems remain firmly single family orientated and have yet to present data in highrise markets in a visually logical way – ie co-ops and condos. Symbolic of the general primitiveness of MLS systems in handling multi-unit housing, one MLS system in the NYC metro area still tags “co-ops” as “condos.”
Kudos to Streeteasy for shaking up the market from day one. When they launched, StreetEasy became the housing data resource of choice for most in NYC. I met most of the team a while back and I was impressed with how a small group of people could really shake things up in a huge market. While presenting clean data in a very dirty data environment continues to be a challenge, I think their greatest contribution to the housing market has been how they displayed their information – in a way that consumers screamed for.
Tags: Zillow, StreetEasy
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Charts
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Here are the 3 Manhattan luxury housing price indices we provide for the Bloomberg Terminals through 2Q 2013.
MLH AVG Index (Miller Samuel Manhattan Luxury Housing Average Sales Price)
[click to expand]
MLH SQFT Index (Miller Samuel Manhattan Luxury Housing Price Per Square Foot)
[click to expand]
MLH MED Index (Miller Samuel Manhattan Luxury Housing Median Sales Price)
[click to expand]
Tags: Bloomberg News
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Columns
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Yesterday, Oshrat Carmiel’s real estate piece: Manhattan Homes Under $3 Million Never Harder to Buy hit the terminals and web site rising almost immediately to the most emailed and most read article of the day. The starting point for her article was based on my firm’s data – extracting the luxury market data from the overall market – to observe what’s happening to “non-luxury” real estate. I define luxury real estate as the top 10% of all sales prices in a period. This analysis looked at the remaining 90% and as it turns out – the Manhattan market is a lot tighter there.
I had a fun discussion with Erik Schatzker and Alix Steel about the “non-luxury” Manhattan market on their Bloomberg TV show “Market Makers.”
I also did an interview with Kathleen Hays and Vonnie Quinn on Bloomberg Radio’s “The Hays Advantage” and also used the data I compiled in my weekly column on Curbed covering the same topic.
As of today, the Bloomberg article is still the most read on Bloomberg worldwide. Apparently there is interest in the housing market beyond the super wealthy’s real estate exploits.
It was a busy day.
Tags: Three Cents Worth, Bloomberg TV, Bloomberg Radio, Kathleen Hays, Vonnie Quinn, Television, 3CW, Radio
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TV, Videos
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I joined Erik Schatzker and Scarlet Fu to talk about our new market research piece released today covering the 2Q13 Manhattan sales market that we prepare for Douglas Elliman.
The Bloomberg TV long interview format is absolutely fantastic.
Tags: Bloomberg TV, Scarlet Fu, Market Makers, Erik Schatzker, Television
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Public
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Yesterday’s release of the Case Shiller Index prompted a flurry of coverage given the 20-cities’ highest YoY increase in 7-years. I did a three way split interview from a remote location in CT (see studio set up below). I was a guest along with Vincent Reinhart, chief US economist at Morgan Stanley and Stan Humphries, chief economist at Zillow Inc. Betty Liu and Adam Johnson kept the conversation going.
I especially liked Stan’s modification of the Case Shiller Index results which excluded foreclosures and his research on low and negative equity (my explanation for low inventory right now). The drop in foreclosure activity over the past year caused significant skew to the mix. According to Stan the index would show roughly a 5% increase YoY rather than an 10.9% increase. A huge difference and yet another reason why this index does more harm than good to our understanding of the housing market.
Vincent’s observation that seasonality is considered in Case Shiller is basically wrong – not technically wrong because the data is seasonally adjusted. However the methodology of a repeat sales index washes out seasonality. If you look at the Case Shiller chart, there hasn’t been “seasons” in housing since 1987. That’s simply not true. The Case Shiller Index does not reflect annual housing cycles.
Since Case Shiller Index lags the signing of contracts by 5-7 months, expect to see much higher YoY results this summer.
How the sausage is made
Bloomberg TV is always great to work with – they arranged for me to use a remote studio in CT through a third party. Here is what the studio looks like. Amazingly primitive but it works!
Tags: Case-Shiller, Stan Humphries, Bloomberg TV, Zillow, Seasonal Adjustment
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Public
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Had a fun interview with Tom and Sara this morning on the always MUST watch/listen Bloomberg Surveillance. We talked housing, rentals, vacancy and inventory. An added bonus was the addition of Adam Davidson – co-founder and co-host of Planet Money as guest anchor. I’m a huge fan of his show. Even bought their t-shirt last week through Kickstarter.
More importantly, I’m still the mayor of the Bloomberg Cafeteria on FourSquare.
Tags: Tom Keene, Sara Eisen, Bloomberg TV, Bloomberg Surveillance
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Charts
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A while ago Bloomberg created three luxury housing indices using our Manhattan historical data for their terminal subscribers. Kinda cool. For all the high end housing market hype, the upper end has remained fairly stable for several years. That may change a bit going forward (higher).
Here are the latest:
MLH SQFT Index (Miller Samuel Manhattan Luxury Housing Price Per Square Foot)
[click to expand]
MLH MED Index (Miller Samuel Manhattan Luxury Housing Median Sales Price)
[click to expand]
MLH AVG Index (Miller Samuel Manhattan Luxury Housing Average Sales Price)
[click to expand]
Tags: Bloomberg News
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TV, Videos
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[click to play – starts at 13:50]
I spoke with Michelle Makori on the state of Fannie Mae (who just reported a record profit). CCTV America is part of China Central Television (CCTV), the largest television broadcaster in China.
Tags: CCTV, Fannie Mae, Michelle Makori, China
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Public
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Had a great visit with Tom Keene this morning on Bloomberg TV’s Surveillance along with Scarlet Fu and Sara Eisen. It was simulcast on Bloomberg Radio.
Also in studio was James Lockhart, vice chairman of WL Ross & Co., formerly the head of GSE regulator FHFA. We were also joined by Nicolas Retsinas, a senior lecturer in real estate at Harvard Business School who called in – he has been on my old podcast a few times. Both provided great insight to the housing narrative.
Here’s the second clip from the same session. My basic premise is that while new home sales are rising, it will not be enough to address the collapse of listing inventory which will drive housing prices higher in the US. Hint: It’s mostly about tight credit. Housing is local and credit is national.
Tags: Tom Keene, Sara Eisen, Scarlet Fu, Bloomberg Surveillance, FHFA, Nicolas Retsinas, James Lockhart, GSE, Radio
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Charts
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In case you have any doubts about the amount of compensation that the securities industry enjoys versus the private sector in NYC, I created the chart above. While the bonus comp results has been released for 2012, the salary data is not out yet so I built this chart from 1985-2011. In 2011, securities industry salaries + bonuses were 7x larger than private industry salaries.
In case you had any doubts about how important the industry is to the NYC, regional and state economy, hopefully you are now – love them or hate them.
Since Wall Street bonuses were announced yesterday and have been talked about and analyzed a lot over the past 24 hours, I thought I’d share the following video which apologizes a lot for compensation levels of the securities industry but breaks down the advantages of the bonus compensation practice on Wall Street.
I was provided with a video from OnlineMBA.com
Three Cents Worth: Have Bonus, Will Buy in Manhattan? [Curbed NY]
In Defense of the Wall Street Bonus [OnlineMBA]
NYC Securities v. Other Private Industry Compensation [Miller Samuel Charts]
Wall Street Bonuses Rose in 2012 [NYS Comptroller]
UPDATE: Bloomberg Television saw this post and made it their “Single Best Chart” of the day.
Tags: Three Cents Worth, bonus, Wall Street Bonus, 3CW
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Charts
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Here are the 3 Manhattan luxury housing price indices we provide for the Bloomberg Terminals.
MLH AVG Index (Miller Samuel Manhattan Luxury Housing Average Sales Price)
[click to expand]
MLH SQFT Index (Miller Samuel Manhattan Luxury Housing Price Per Square Foot)
[click to expand]
MLH MED Index (Miller Samuel Manhattan Luxury Housing Median Sales Price)
[click to expand]
Tags: Bloomberg News
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Jonathan Miller is President and CEO of Miller Samuel Inc., a real estate appraisal and consulting firm he co-founded in 1986. He is a state-certified real estate appraiser in New York and Connecticut, performing court testimony as an expert witness in various local, state and federal courts. He holds the Counselors of Real Estate (CRE) and Certified Relocation Professional (CRP) designations. He is an Appraiser “A” Member of the Real Estate Board of New York and a member of Relocation Appraisers and Consultants, Inc.
Learn More...
You'll be able to choose from an array of robust housing metrics compiled using research developed during the preparation of our market report series. Expanded significantly from prior offerings, use this resource to build charts and custom data tables or leverage your own information for more powerful research and presentations.
In the meantime, here is a small sample of the aggregated data we will provide.
Forbes ('20-)
Appraisersblogs ('17-)
'Three Cents Worth' column 3CW ('05-'16)
When Curbed was acquired by Vox, my eleven years of 3CW chart art and column links were broken on Curbed NY, Curbed DC, Curbed Miami, Curbed Hamptons, Curbed LA, and Curbed Ski.
Many of my 3CW charts can be found here:
Curbed 3CW Full Chart Archive
Op-ed column ('14-'15)
'Economic Spotlight column ('03-'09)
New York Times experiment ('08-09')
Huffington Post (09')
Favorite "How to Value" Posts
Recent Comments on Matrix