I joined Dan Gross for my monthly visit on his “The Number” segment talking about the general improvement in the US housing market, FHA’s possible pending implosion and what’s in store for the market in 2013.
Always fun.
Tags: Dan Gross, BeastTV, FHA, Television
In our continuing monthly jousting match, Dan works hard to get me over to the “happy housing news” side whereas I prefer a more balanced long and slow view. Housing is better than it was, but a function of credit issues that are squeezing supply making the numbers look better overall. I’m not a perma bear but it’s too soon to jump up and down.
It’s a smaller universe of players in the mix and if that makes for a US recovery, then I guess it is. Still, incomes are flat, unemployment is elevated and +40% of houses with mortgages have low or negative equity. It’s tough to sign on to a full blown recovery even if prices rise next year in Manhattan.
Fun!
Tags: Dan Gross, BeastTV, Recovery, The Daily Beast, Television
Ali Velshi does a great recap on various elements of the economy including what I call “happy housing news.” CNN brought in both Chris Mayer of Columbia University and me to poke holes in it and talk “what if.” Chris and I were nearly identical in views, but I was tagged as the more negative because I hate the use of the word “recovery” to describe the current state of the market. I prefer “stabilized” or “recovering” over “recovery” since we haven’t dealt with the excess distressed sales and tight credit yet which is what is perversely driving up prices.
We taped this on Wednesday and it aired yesterday at 1pm and will air again today at 3pm. Ali tackles energy, manufacturing, the economy in addition to this housing segment. My friend Dan Gross of Newsweek/Daily Beast was in the economy segment and we got to catch up in the Green Room.
The taping was a two-fer for me – I got to meet Ali, a take-no-prisoners media personality who lays things out with great clarity. Plus I got to meet Chris, one of the sharpest minds in real estate policy. All-in-all, fun!
Tags: Dan Gross, Ali Velshi, CNN, Television
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Starting to be a regular (monthly) guest with Dan for a quick segment on “The Number”.
Today we talked about: Presidential Debates, pro cyclical, Manhattan housing, “sticky on the downside” “being a real estate pornographer”, “housing is back, baby”, single family foreclosure investors and a lot of words like: “kind of”, sort of”, “almost.”
“The Number” with Dan Gross [BeastTV]
The Elliman Report: 3Q 2012 Manhattan Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 3Q 2012 Manhattan Sales [Prudential Douglas Elliman]
Tags: Television, Dan Gross, BeastTV
Got to talk housing with my friend Dan Gross, the Global Business Editor at Newsweek & The Daily Beast on his BeastTV segment “The Number”:
THE NUMBER: 101.7 That’s the pending home sales index from the National Association of Realtors, up over 12% from a year ago. Dan Gross and The Matrix’s Jonathan Miller reveal why we should be cautiously optimistic.
Their offices are located in the IAC building in Manhattan which is one of my faves – looks like a meringue pie. Here’s my photo from the cab:
Tags: Dan Gross, BeastTV, Television, NAR, National Association of Realtors
Had a spirited conversation with my friend Dan Gross, the economics editor at Yahoo! Finance who has a new book out.
Something I thought about before the show that I sort of mentioned but I will mention a lot more going forward:
The state of the housing market is a process rather than a moment.
ie “bottom” becomes “bottoming”, “recovery” becomes “recovering”, “turned the corner” becomes “turning the corner”.
Tags: Case-Shiller, Dan Gross, Daily Ticker, Television, NAR
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Here are a few things worth reading.
Cocksure: Banks, battles, and the psychology of overconfidence. [Malcolm Gladwell – New Yorker]
Bernanke Takes Message, Shows Exit to the People [Caroline Baum -Bloomberg]
Who caused the economic crisis? [Simon Johnson and John Talbott – Salon]
Experts Speculate on Mature Housing Market [Builder Magazine]
Tags: Dan Gross, Ben Bernanke
Next week, my guest on The Housing Helix will be Barry Ritholtz of Big Picture (check out this week’s podcast with Dan Gross of Newsweek). He’ll be discussing his book, Bailout Nation.
Click here for full sized graphic.
Barry does a great job at laying out how this crisis evolved.
Systemic.
Tags: Dan Gross, Barry Ritholtz, Bailout Nation
Tags: Dan Gross, Barry Ritholtz
This week I speak with Dan Gross, a senior editor and columnist at Newsweek and he writes the “Moneybox” column for Slate. Dan covers economic topics in his columns and has written a number of books with the most recent available as an eBook titled “Dumb Money: How Our Greatest Financial Minds Bankrupted the Nation”
Keywords and phrases from Dumb Money:
We also talked about the second home market and wondered whether the commercial real estate market was the next shoe to drop.
Check out this week’s podcast.
You can subscribe on iTunes or simply listen to the podcast on my other blog The Housing Helix.
Tags: Dan Gross
| The Colbert Report | Mon – Thurs 11:30pm / 10:30c | |||
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My friend Dan is at it again – he claims to be on the “C” list of regular guests on MSNBC Countdown – now he’s achieved the pinnacle of every writer’s dream, to be interviewed by Stephen Colbert. He’s humping his new book, Dumb Money.
Colbert Nation summarizes:
Daniel Gross urges rich cable TV personalities to buy steaks, cigars and whiskey.
Very salient interview and I must say, very entertaining.
Tags: Dan Gross
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Last week, Dan Gross at Newsweek wrote a fun piece on Slate/Newsweek called “Jump” (not a a correlation with the old Van Halen song). Basically he says that nothing the government can do will fix the economy unless we participate.
In the grips of a bubble mentality, we—as investors, consumers, and businesses—blithely assumed risk and convinced ourÂselves it was perfectly safe to do so. We bought houses with no money down, took on huge amounts of debt, and let the booming stock and housing markets perform the heavy lifting of saving.
I remember the ridicule the former president took for his previous economic fix after 9/11 – “Shop!” else we enter the “paradox of thrift.“
If everyone saves during a slack period, economic activity will decrease, thus making everyone poorÂer. We also need to start investing again—not necessarily in the stocks of Citigroup or in condos in Miami. But rather to build skills, to create the new companies that are so vital to growth, and to fund the discovÂery and development of new technologies.
I am not suggesting that shopping is solution, but it is certainly part of the problem right now. When consumers and investors hunker down and do nothing, a failure spiral results.
Today Secretary Geitner announces the plan we have been waiting for, which is heavily reliant on the private sector. US Treasury secrectary Geitner unvailed his second attempt at getting the economy moving again and this time there is probably no room for a do-over. Did he really call it “My Plan”?
We cannot solve this crisis without making it possible for investors to take risks. While this crisis was caused by banks taking too much risk, the danger now is that they will take too little. In working with Congress to put in place strong conditions to prevent misuse of taxpayer assistance, we need to be very careful not to discourage those investments the economy needs to recover from recession. The rule of law gives responsible entrepreneurs and investors the confidence to invest and create jobs in our nation. Our nation’s commitment to pursue economic policies that promote confidence and stability dates back to the very first secretary of the Treasury, Alexander Hamilton, who first made it clear that when our government gives its word we mean it.
Of course Hamilton was shot dead in a duel. Let’s hope this strategy has a quicker draw and better aim.
Here’s the official press release and fact sheet posted this morning.
Here’s the problem with the AIG bonus outrage that fueled this modification of plans – it’s not about being scared of keeping AIG and other Wall Street firms afloat and it’s not about the obscene lack of morality – it’s about the danger of scaring off the private sector from participating in the solution. It’s called “Free Market.”
Council of Economic Advisers Chief Christina Romer said:
“We’ve got banks with a lot of toxic assets, what ‘toxic’ means is they are highly uncertain … so that is certainly the big picture, and that is going to be the main reason for doing this … We simply — we simply need them. We need them — you know, we’ve got a limited amount of money that the government has to go in here, so we need to partner, not just with private firms, but with the FDIC, with the Fed, to leverage the money that we have,” she said.
$165M AIG bonuses (actually it’s $218M) and it’s symbolism of greed have been a distraction and we have to be very careful of taking our eye off the ball. Cut out the “Main Street versus Wall Street” homilies and let’s fix this.
Congress underestimated consumer outrage and the House quickly passed retribution legislation to get even via a 90% tax. Because the political playing field is incentivized by one-upsmanship, Congress is much more comfortable with this sort of grandstanding/finger pointing and that’s what this debate has regressed to. Dodd is in hot water.
It began with the previous legislation of caps on Wall Street compensation (when Congress didn’t catch it), while a feel good measure, is also a short sighted position much more apparent now because there will always be work-arounds.
I love how many simply lump all Wall Streeters into one evil pile and feel it’s right to treat everyone the same. It’s professional prejudice on steroids. A market for the “toxic” assets needs to be fostered. Do we want to get out this mess or not? No room for populist shortsightedness.
More on the plan later. In the meantime I need to download that song from iTunes – it’s systemic so we might as well jump.
Tags: Bailout Nation, Tim Geithner, Dan Gross, Wall Street Bonus, Forbes, FDIC
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Jonathan Miller is President and CEO of Miller Samuel Inc., a real estate appraisal and consulting firm he co-founded in 1986. He is a state-certified real estate appraiser in New York and Connecticut, performing court testimony as an expert witness in various local, state, and federal courts. He holds the Counselors of Real Estate (CRE) designation, is an Appraiser “A” Member of the Real Estate Board of New York, and is a member of RAC.
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