Matrix Blog

Had a nice chat with Erik Schatzker and Sara Eisen on the top 5 closed Manhattan transactions to date (there may be a few more squeezed in). We got through 3 and then there was a breaking news event – the president was announcing the status of the “fiscal cliff” talks.

Imagine that! As if the “fiscal cliff” was somehow more important than learning where the super wealthy invested their money in real estate? Ok I’m kidding.

I’ll finish the list and include the top sales in a post later today when the howling snow storm hits CT.

Tags: Television

Comments Off on [In The Media] Bloomberg’s “Money Makers” 12-28-12

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This post is really meant for my appraiser readers because they’ll appreciate this:

A La Mode software has well over a 50% market share of residential appraisal software used today and I was flattered when they approached me, as a user of their product, to associate our brand with theirs. They sent this flyer out to appraisers across the US this week. Very cool.

Branding and marketing…Yes they are important to an appraiser’s success (in addition to being great at analysis!)

Tags: a la mode, WinTOTAL

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In our continuing monthly jousting match, Dan works hard to get me over to the “happy housing news” side whereas I prefer a more balanced long and slow view. Housing is better than it was, but a function of credit issues that are squeezing supply making the numbers look better overall. I’m not a perma bear but it’s too soon to jump up and down.

It’s a smaller universe of players in the mix and if that makes for a US recovery, then I guess it is. Still, incomes are flat, unemployment is elevated and +40% of houses with mortgages have low or negative equity. It’s tough to sign on to a full blown recovery even if prices rise next year in Manhattan.

Fun!

Tags: Dan Gross, BeastTV, Recovery, The Daily Beast, Television

Comments Off on [In The Media] Newsweek/BeastTV – “The Number” with Dan Gross 12-4-12

In this week’s WSJ Mansion section there was a nice write up by Alyssa Abkowitz about the appraisal process during a divorce: Appraisers in Splitsville. Our firm does a lot of this type of consulting and we find working with attorneys much easier than dealing with retail banks.

I also find that it’s a small world – I know nearly all the appraisers in my market personally (only a handful are active in this segment). Most are professional and knowledgable but like any profession, there are a few hacks.

The challenge in the divorce appraisal business is the challenge of proper communication between the parties – the slightest miscue can snowball into a huge complicated mess billable by the hour. The key to valuation in this process is to filter out the personal element of it and just do the appraisal. When working for one party, the appraiser never gets the whole story and magically “you’re not always on the ‘right’ side so don’t concern yourself with the details beyond the valuation.” Professionals are the ones that do their job devoid of personal bias.

Tags: Divorce, WSJ

Comments Off on Divorce Valuations: Appraiserville Meets Splitsville

Ali Velshi does a great recap on various elements of the economy including what I call “happy housing news.” CNN brought in both Chris Mayer of Columbia University and me to poke holes in it and talk “what if.” Chris and I were nearly identical in views, but I was tagged as the more negative because I hate the use of the word “recovery” to describe the current state of the market. I prefer “stabilized” or “recovering” over “recovery” since we haven’t dealt with the excess distressed sales and tight credit yet which is what is perversely driving up prices.

We taped this on Wednesday and it aired yesterday at 1pm and will air again today at 3pm. Ali tackles energy, manufacturing, the economy in addition to this housing segment. My friend Dan Gross of Newsweek/Daily Beast was in the economy segment and we got to catch up in the Green Room.

The taping was a two-fer for me – I got to meet Ali, a take-no-prisoners media personality who lays things out with great clarity. Plus I got to meet Chris, one of the sharpest minds in real estate policy. All-in-all, fun!

Tags: Dan Gross, Ali Velshi, CNN, Television

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Always fun to speak with Deirdre Bolton on her Bloomberg TV show “Money Moves.” We talk macro housing and foreign investors today and my tweet quote: Housing is the new global currency.

Tags: Bloomberg TV, Television, Deirdre Bolton

Comments Off on [In The Media] Bloomberg TV’s ‘Money Moves’ w/Deirdre Bolton 10-22-2012

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Had a great conversation with Monica Brown covering the release of the Elliman Report: Manhattan Sales 3Q 2012. She’s NY1’s anchor for Staten Island, Queens and Rockland County.

Tags: NY1, Television

Comments Off on [In The Media] NY1 With Monica Brown 10-4-12

Starting to be a regular (monthly) guest with Dan for a quick segment on “The Number”.

Today we talked about: Presidential Debates, pro cyclical, Manhattan housing, “sticky on the downside” “being a real estate pornographer”, “housing is back, baby”, single family foreclosure investors and a lot of words like: “kind of”, sort of”, “almost.”

“The Number” with Dan Gross [BeastTV]
The Elliman Report: 3Q 2012 Manhattan Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 3Q 2012 Manhattan Sales [Prudential Douglas Elliman]

Tags: Dan Gross, BeastTV, Television

Comments Off on [In The Media] BeastTV – The Number with Dan Gross 10-4-12

Had a nice chat with Trish Regan over at Bloomberg TV on her Reganomix (I get it) segment of Street Smarts on Tuesday (bonus: I became the mayor of Bloomberg TV on Foursquare at same time).

We talked about the results of our recent market report release on Manhattan for Prudential Douglas Elliman.

The Elliman Report: 3Q 2012 Manhattan Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 3Q 2012 Manhattan Sales [Prudential Douglas Elliman]

Tags: Bloomberg TV, Trish Regan, Television

Comments Off on [In The Media] Bloomberg TV’s ‘Street Smart’ w/ Trish Regan 10-2-12

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In lieu of the new TV show 666 Park Avenue (the devil passed the board interview apparently), the Commercial Observer asked me for some thoughts on the value of some fictitious apartments and properties in some notable TV shows using what limited information was available back in the day and some strained logic (with a slew of hypotheticals and disclaimers) all in the name of fun.

Although the graphic incorrectly uses the building square footage total for no. 3, the graphics people at CO did an absolutely brilliant job with this – love it.

Here’s a cool web site I came across with theoretical floor plans for popular tv shows.

Lifestyles of the Rich and Fictitious [Commercial Observer]
Celebrity Floorplans [Deviant Art]
666 Park Avenue [Wikipedia]

Tags: Commercial Observer

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Very much enjoyed my conversation with Tom Keene and Scarlet Fu on Bloomberg Television’s Surveillance.

Scratch notes before my appearance:

Some thoughts about the Fed’s QE3 as it relates to housing (Einstein defines insanity as doing something for a 3rd time hoping it works).

-Focus of QE3 seems to be housing, but it shows how little Fed understands housing since this seems to be an effort to press borrowing costs lower.
-Falling rates until now have increased affordability 15% this year but reaction in sales is less. A diminishing return for this action. Yes it temporarily helps but is more akin to the 2010 tax credit – remove it and consumers stop buying.
-Fed must believe recent “happy housing news” isn’t sustainable. Prices and sale generally showing improvement.

-Banks prob won’t drop rates all that much-could even see a slight increase in short term: admin backlog from existing business, guarantee fees by Fannie Mae to kick in a few months and spreads already low. This action provides little traction.

-QE3 doesn’t address THE REAL PROBLEM – mortgage underwriting remains irrationally tight. Smaller universe qualifies for mortgaged and a large number of contracts fall through – approx 15%.
-Telegraphing low rates through 2015 eliminates any urgency for consumers to take action. National volume up YOY but 2011 was the aftermath of 2010 tax credit so comparing against low.

Bernanke’s Speech on QE3 [MarketPlace.org]
Benanke Statement on QE3 [Federal Reserve]
QE3: What is quantitative easing? And will it help the economy? [WaPo Wonk Blog]
Fed’s Evans Says QE3 Will Make Economy More Resilient [Bloomberg]
Low Rates Not Improving Housing Market, Miller Says [Bloomberg Surveillance TV]

Tags: Tom Keene, Scarlet Fu, Bloomberg Surveillance, Fannie Mae, Television, Ben Bernanke

Comments Off on [In The Media] Bloomberg Surveillance 9-18-12 QE3, Low Rates and Housing

Last week I was quoted in a few articles pontificating about the use of the word recovery that I felt was a misleading characterization of the state of housing:

Business Insider (Jill Krasny): JONATHAN MILLER: Don’t Buy The Hype About A Housing Recovery

“We keep throwing the ‘recovery’ word around, but the big numbers are coming from sources being created from the tight market,” he told Business Insider. “Tight credit is causing rents to rise; falling mortgage rates are pushing people to buy.

International Business Times (Roland Li): Good News On The US Housing Market? Not Quite

“The use of the word ‘recovery’ is really inappropriate,” said Jonathan Miller, president and CEO of New York-based appraisal firm Miller Samuel. Inc. “We’re just stabilizing.”

In retrospect, I think some reading this may have interpreted me as being bearish on housing. Well I’m not, I just don’t think use of the word “recovery” is being used properly. Housing will likely slip a bit before it truly improves and I think “improvement” means real stability. “Recovery” means:

an improvement in the economy marking the end of a recession or decline.

In other words, I interpret the word “recovery” as getting better or at least not getting worse. While housing is showing gains in sales and price, it’s too soon for all the hyperbole.

Perhaps many view the word “recovery” as a process such as this great post by Diana Olick at CNBC that covers all the housing bases. I can agree with it being some sort of “process.” However I think the word when used by people in the business of real estate is different than when used by the consumer. I feel strongly that the use of the word implies to the consumer that the housing market will soon return to the heady days of yore (my recent fave saying) and that’s not what is happening.

Tags: Diana Olick, Roland Li, CNBC

Comments Off on Recovering From The Use Of “Recovery” In Housingspeak