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Posts Tagged ‘Inventory’

Manhattan Monthly Absorption Rate – August 2015

by Jonathan Miller | @jonathanmiller
September 22, 2015 | 2:07 pm | Charts |
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Manhattan Analysis & Research Charts, Maps, Images, Infographics, Video Sales

8-2015Manhattan [click to expand]

Thoughts The co-op and condo market absorption rates for the $10 million+ market have slowed over the past year while the pace of the sub-$3 million remains extremely brisk. The $3 million to $10 million shows limited change and some stabilization.

Side by side Manhattan regional comparison:

August 2015 v August 2014
8-20158-2014 [click images to expand]

I started this analysis in August 2009 so I am able to show side-by side year-over-year comparisons. (I got tired of the red/gray look in 2014 so I changed it) The blue/red line shows the 10-year quarterly average for context. The pink/orange line represents the overall average absorption rate of the most recently completed month for that market area.

Definition Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart is: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the current annualized pace of sales activity in our market report series.

Manhattan Market Absorption Charts [Miller Samuel]

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Bloomberg View Column: Housing’s New Wealth Effect

by Jonathan Miller | @jonathanmiller
September 27, 2014 | 1:00 pm | | Charts |
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Bloomberg View Affordability, Affordable Housing Blogging Off The Matrix Credit, Finance, Mortgage, Rates Development, Construction, Architecture & Land Luxury, Super, Ultra, Mega

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Read my latest Bloomberg View column Housing’s New Wealth Effect. Please join the conversation over at Bloomberg View. Here’s an excerpt…

It was a busy week for housing market reports. The U.S. Census published its new home-sales results for August, showing an 18 percent gain from the prior month and a 33 percent increase from August 2013. News headlines relied on words such as “surged” and “soared” to describe the results.

Only a few days earlier, the National Association of Realtors released its existing home-sales report for August, which showed month-over-month sales falling for the first time in four months. The inventory of unsold properties was 4.5 percent higher than a year earlier. I recently addressed the market slowdown in “Understanding Housing’s Dog Days.”

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NAR Existing Home Sales Blink, And So What?

by Jonathan Miller | @jonathanmiller
March 23, 2014 | 9:00 am |
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Credit, Finance, Mortgage, Rates Market Reports Weather & Natural Disasters

NAR released their Existing Home Sales Report on Thursday with a headline that read: February Existing-Home Sales Remain Subdued that blamed the severe winter weather and low inventory for lower sales.

Of course inventory has been near historic lows for a few years so that’s not a new reason. I’m left with the weather and as someone who hates to use the weather as a crutch, it seems to be a pragmatic – it’s difficult to show or be in the mood to view properties when it is zero degrees outside. The weather explanation was also used in the prior report but those contracts were signed in December for the January report, before the “polar vortex.”

However the recent hand ringing caused by the downshift in sales is the concern that the recovery is cooling off.

I see the recent fretting about the cooling of housing as an indication of how improving conditions were based largely on Fed policy and not fundamentals. The combination of rising mortgage rates and declines from the year ago release of pent-up demand post-“fiscal cliff” likely gets price gains and sales levels in sync with fundamental economic conditions.

I’ve charted NAR EHS stats from the past 4 years without seasonal adjustments. Price gains have been insane so the combination of slowing sales and rising inventory will take the froth out of the market and hopefully get us on a more sustainable path.

2-14NARehs

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Manhattan Inventory Trend Remains Flat as a Pancake in 2013

by Jonathan Miller | @jonathanmiller
June 5, 2013 | 12:27 pm | Charts |
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Manhattan


[click to expand]

There has been remarkably little YTD improvement of available co-op/condo supply in Manhattan. This chart reflects co-op, condo and townhouse supply (existing + new dev).

While we are now seeing a little more inventory enter the market, sales are outpacing prior year levels erasing any meaningful gains in supply. This chart illustrates how flat supply has remained in 2013.

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Manhattan Listings Fall off “The Cliff”

by Jonathan Miller | @jonathanmiller
January 3, 2013 | 11:28 am | Charts |
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Manhattan Boom Bubble Bust


Sorry but I just had to have at least one blog post title with “cliff” in it. But seriously, the 2012 drop in listing inventory was quite pronounced in the context of recent years and it is at it’s lowest level since 2000 when I began tracking it.

This is the same situation on a national level.

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About Jonathan Miller

Jonathan Miller is President and CEO of Miller Samuel Inc., a real estate appraisal and consulting firm he co-founded in 1986. He is a state-certified real estate appraiser in New York and Connecticut, performing court testimony as an expert witness in various local, state, and federal courts. He holds the Counselors of Real Estate (CRE) designation, is an Appraiser “A” Member of the Real Estate Board of New York, and is a member of RAC.
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