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Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart is: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the annual pace of sales activity. (The definition of absorption in my market report series reflects the quarterly pace – nearly the same)

I started this analysis in August 2009 so I am able to show side-by side year-over-year comparisons. The blue line showing the 10-year quarterly average travels up and down because of the change in scale caused by some of the significant volatility seen at the upper end of the market. The pink line represents the overall average rate of the most recently completed quarter.

Side by side Manhattan regional comparison:

[click images to expand]

All market segments below $5M, which is roughly 95% of the housing market are seeing their fastest pace (lowest absorption rate) in the 12 years I’ve been tracking listing inventory.

Manhattan Market Absorption Charts 2013 [Miller Samuel]
Manhattan Market Absorption Charts 2012 [Miller Samuel]

Tags: Absorption

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We published our Manhattan Townhouse report, a ten year moving window data compendium of the market from 2003-2012. For the past 26 years we’ve been tracking the townhouse market, it has remained a small luxury subset representing a few percentage points of the overall residential market so a detailed quarterly or monthly analysis isn’t practical. This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

MANHATTAN TOWNHOUSE 2003-2012

• Sales were at highest level since the credit crunch began, the third highest total of decade.
• Housing prices remain 25% below the 2008 peak (which was a significant spike), housing sales are 19.2% below 2007 peak.
• Housing price indicators were mixed, showing overall stability for the most recent four year period.
• Listing inventory fell sharply from the prior year, resulting in the fastest absorption rate in 6 years.
• Single family sales showed more year-over-year improvement in price and sales than the balance of the market.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

…Townhouse sales rose to 277, their highest level since 343 sales were reached in 2007 before the onset of the credit crunch. The 15.4% increase in sales this year marks the third consecutive yearover- year increase in activity. Consistent with the rise in sales was the 18.9% drop in listing inventory to 411 and the two month drop in days on market to 106. Market share for East Side sales led all regions, jumping to 26% from 20.8% in 2011. The year-over-year change in price indicators were mixed with a 4.2% decline in median sales price, a 6.1% gain in average sales price and a 12.2% rise in average price per square foot…

Later today we’ll have additional information available on the market so you can build your own custom data tables and browse our chart library.

The Elliman Report: 2003-2012 Manhattan Townhouse Report [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 2003-2012 Manhattan Townhouse Report [Douglas Elliman]
Market Chart Library [Miller Samuel]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]

Tags: Townhouses, Absorption

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We published our report on the Boca Raton, Florida sales market for 4Q 2012. This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

• Overall price indicators show sharp year over year gains.
  
• Overall sales levels trending higher.
  
• Marketing times fell sharply and negotiability between buyers and seller narrowed.
  
  
  
  
  

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

CONDO/TOWNHOUSE Median sales price of a Boca Raton condo jumped 28.2% from $93,000 in the prior year quarter to $119,250. Over the same period, the number of sales edged 1.4% higher to 642. With 1,227 active listings, the monthly absorption rate was 5.7 months, consistent with the past several quarters…

SINGLE FAMILY Median sales price surged 17% from the prior year quarter to $310,000. Number of sales jumped 17.9% to 566 sales over the same period, the largest fourth quarter total in more than 6 years. With inventory at 1,127, the absorption rate, or number of months to sell all active listings at the current pace of sales, was 6 months, which was consistent with the past several quarters…

You can build your own custom data tables on the market – now updated with 4Q 12 data. We’ll be adding a chart library for this market area soon!

The Elliman Report: 4Q 2012 Boca Raton [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 4Q 2012 Boca Raton [Douglas Elliman]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]

Tags: Absorption

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We recently published our report on the Brooklyn sales market for 4Q 2012.   This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

• Record low mortgage rates fueling demand but credit remains tight holding demand in check.
  
• Lowest inventory total in four years.
  
• Price indicators show sharp year over year gains.
  
• Number of sales declined from year ago levels restrained by limited inventory.
  
• Market share of new development at lowest level since credit crunch began as old pipeline of product has been nearly exhausted.
  
  

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

…The Brooklyn housing market saw a final quarter of 2012 characterized by unusually low inventory, which in turn limited the volume of both re-sale and new development activity despite the demand generated by record low mortgage rates. As a result, the price indicators showed a year-over-year jump across most market segments.

There were 4,685 listings at the end of the fourth quarter, the metric’s lowest total since we began tracking it in mid-2008. Listing inventory was 20.7% below prior year levels, resulting in a 9.7-month absorption rate, faster than the 11.4-month rate in the same period last year. Despite record low mortgage rates and a slowly improving economy, the number of sales fell 7.3% to 1,445 over the same period, as limited inventory and tight mortgage lending conditions continued to restrain demand…

You can build your own custom data tables on the market – now updated with 4Q 12 data. Charts with 4Q12 data appended will be online shortly.

The Elliman Report: 4Q 2012 Brooklyn Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 4Q 2012 Brooklyn Sales [Douglas Elliman]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]

Tags: Absorption

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Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart is: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the annual pace of sales activity. (The definition of absorption in my market report series reflects the quarterly pace – nearly the same)

I started this analysis in August 2009 so I am able to show side-by side year-over-year comparisons. The blue line showing the 10-year quarterly average travels up and down because of the change in scale caused by some of the significant volatility seen at the upper end of the market. The pink line represents the overall average rate of the most recently completed quarter.

Side by side Manhattan regional comparison:

[click images to expand]

The overall market and each region continue to reflect a fast pace as the absorption rate levels are roughly half as long as seen during the same period in 2011. Some of the greatest gains were seen in the $3M to $10M market. The top 1% or $10M+ market continues to see the slowest absorption rate however those listings generally see the biggest disconnect with market levels as sellers continue to “copycat” the success of a handful of trophy property sales in 2012.

Manhattan Market Absorption Charts 2012 [Miller Samuel]
Manhattan Market Absorption Charts 2011 [Miller Samuel]

Tags: Absorption

Comments Off on [Manhattan Absorption] November 2012 – Top 1% Remains Cluttered With Copycat Listings

Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart is: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the annual pace of sales activity. (The definition of absorption in my market report series reflects the quarterly pace – nearly the same)

I started this analysis in August 2009 so I am able to show side-by side year-over-year comparisons. The blue line showing the 10-year quarterly average travels up and down because of the change in scale caused by some of the significant volatility seen at the upper end of the market. The pink line represents the overall average rate of the most recently completed quarter.

Side by side Manhattan regional comparison:

[click images to expand]

The rate for the overall market has accelerated from the year ago period. However the $10M+ market, which is roughly the starting point for the top 1% of the market saw a slow down in the absorption rate, perhaps as more property owners in that market segment try to:

• “copy cat” the “trophy sale” success seen earlier this year;
• more listings entering the market to beat the possible expiration of the Bush tax cuts on 12/31 resulting in an increase in capital gains.

Manhattan Market Absorption Charts 2012 [Miller Samuel]
Manhattan Market Absorption Charts 2011 [Miller Samuel]

Tags: Absorption

Comments Off on [Manhattan Absorption] October 2012 – Tighter Under $10M Than Last Year = 99% of Market

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Read this week’s 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

…Manhattan listing inventory has been sliding for a few years yet sales have remained stable—playing havoc with the monthly absorption rate. The absorption rate used here is the number of months to sell all active listings at the annualized rate of sales activity. I like it because puts supply and demand into the same metric. I see it as defining the “pace” of the market. It is important to note that there are periods when inventory is rising AND sales are rising and vice versa, so limiting the view to only one of the two metrics tells just half the story…

[click to read column]

Curbed NY : Three Cents Worth Archive
Curbed DC : Three Cents Worth Archive
Curbed Miami : Three Cents Worth Archive

Tags: Three Cents Worth, Absorption, 3CW

Comments Off on [Three Cents Worth NY #216] Manhattan’s Steamy Absorption Rates

We published our report on the Hamptons & North Fork sales market for 3Q 2012.   This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

Hamptons & North Fork

-Sales increased to highest 3rd quarter total in 7 years.
-Fourth highest market share of sub-million dollar sales (69.9%) in four years as falling mortgage rates brought out first time buyers, skewing overall prices lower.
-Market share of sales above $5M fell sharply from 55.6% to 36.6% of luxury sales.
-Monthly absorption rate was at second fastest pace (10.3 months) since the credit crunch began from rising sales and falling inventory.
-Tight credit continues restrain demand but rates remain at record lows and continue to pull in buyers despite difficulty.
-Wall Street and International buyers remain active.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

…The housing market on the eastern end of Long Island had its highest number of third quarter sales in six years, as inventory declined and buyers and sellers moved closer together on price. Housing prices were characterized as stable, as price indicators declined largely due to the shift towards smaller properties in response to falling mortgage rates. The market share of sales below $1M increased to 69.9% of all sales, up from 67.1% in the prior year quarter and above the five-year average of 66.5%. The shift towards lower-priced sales skewed overall housing prices lower; median sales price fell 9.3% from $700,000 in the same period last year to $635,000. In addition to the spike in sales below the $1M threshold, there was increased activity at the lower end of the luxury market…

You can build your own custom data tables on the market – now updated with 3Q 12 data. I’ll update the chart series soon. In the meantime you can browse our chart library.

The Elliman Report: 3Q 2012 Hamptons & North Fork Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 3Q 2012 Hamptons & North Fork [Prudential Douglas Elliman]
Market Chart Library [Miller Samuel]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]

Tags: Absorption

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We published our report on the Long Island sales market for 3Q 2012.   This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

Long Island

-Housing prices generally stable
-Listing inventory continues to fall sharply
-Pending sales outpaced closed sales reflecting a late season rise in activity
-Despite tight credit, record low mortgage rates are pulling more people into the market.





Here’s an excerpt from the report:

…The pace of the Long Island housing market has been accelerating. The rise in sales and sharp decline in available inventory resulted in the fastest absorption rate in nearly six years. Contract signings rose faster than the pace of closings on both a quarterly and year-to-date basis. Median sales price was $365,000, unchanged from the prior year quarter. Average sales price saw a nominal 0.8% slip from $457,496 to $454,037 over the same period. The second, third, and fourth quintiles saw no or nominal changes in median sales price compared to the prior year quarter, while the first and fifth quintiles declined 2.2% and 2.9% respectively over the same period. There were 5,638 sales in the third quarter, 9.7% above 5,141 sales in the same period last year. Pending sales saw a larger gain over the same period, rising 12.9% to 5,436 from 4,813. Year-to-date, these metrics showed a similar pattern, reflecting the expanding activity levels later in the year…

You can build your own custom data tables on the market – now updated with 3Q 12 data. I’ll post the updated 3Q12 charts soon. In the meantime you can browse our chart library.

The Elliman Report: 3Q 2012 Long Island Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 3Q 2012 Long Island Sales [Prudential Douglas Elliman]
Market Chart Library [Miller Samuel]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]

Tags: Absorption

Comments Off on [More Activity, Later] 3Q 2012 Long Island Report

We published our report on the Brooklyn sales market for 3Q 2012 this morning.   This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

• Fastest absorption rate in 4 years, inventory fell sharply.
  
• Sales slipped, partially attributable to falling inventory.
  
• Overall pricing indicators mixed, prices generally stable.
  
• Luxury pricing edged above year ago levels.
  
• Marketing time faster and listing discount compressing with falling inventory.
  
• Condo sales down, co-op sales and 1-3 family sales are up.
  
• South Brooklyn showed gains in prices and sales, one of lower priced regions, most responsive to falling mortgage rates.
  

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

…The Brooklyn housing market continued to show broad stability in price and sales activity, as listing inventory continued to fall. The familiar restraint of tight mortgage lending conditions tempered additional demand created by falling mortgage rates.

Mixed housing price indicators in the third quarter reflected the general stability of the market. Median sales price slipped 0.8% from $510,000 in the same period last year to $506,000, still marking its second highest level in four years. Average sales price increased 1.1% from $607,867 in the prior year quarter to $614,437…

You can build your own custom data tables on the market – now updated with 3Q 12 data. Charts with 3Q12 data appended will be online shortly.

The Elliman Report: 3Q 2012 Brooklyn Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 3Q 2012 Brooklyn Sales [Prudential Douglas Elliman]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]

Tags: Absorption

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We published our report on the Queens sales market for 3Q 2012.   This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

• Listing inventory declined, marketing time and listing discount fell sharply.
  
• Sales below year ago levels.
  
• Overall pricing indicators mixed, prices generally stable.
  
• Luxury pricing edged above year ago levels.
  
• Condo and 1-3 family sales down, co-op sales are up.
  
• Northwest and West Queens showed most improvement.
  
  

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

…The third quarter Queens housing market was characterized by stable pricing, falling inventory, sliding sales, faster marketing times and less price negotiability between sellers and buyers. The slide in sales despite record-low mortgage rates was largely due to declining inventory levels and irrationally tight mortgage underwriting standards.

Listing inventory continued to fall. There were 9,052 listings at the end of the third quarter, 12.2% below the prior year total of 10,305. The number of sales followed a similar trend, as lower inventory began to temper sales activity. There were 2,509 sales in the third quarter, 8.5% fewer than 2,743 sales in the same period last year. The monthly absorption rate, the number of months to sell all active inventory at the current pace of sales, was 10.8 months, faster than 11.3 months a year ago but consistent with the 10.6-month 7-year average…

Updates to our Queens data NOW UPDATED FOR 3Q12 and charts will be available soon.

The Elliman Report: 3Q 2012 Queens Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 3Q 2012 Queens Sales [Prudential Douglas Elliman]

Tags: Absorption

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We just published our report on the Manhattan rental market for 3Q 2012.   This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

WESTCHESTER

• Number of sales jumped 21.9% above year ago levels while inventory fell 9.8% over the same period.
• Single family sales surged 25.9% year over year, condos up 23%. Co-ops and 2-4 Family sales below year ago levels. Single family sales up in all regions.
• Housing prices were stable – median sales price $490,000, down 1.1% but average home size slipped 1.7%.
• Fastest market pace in 5 years: The combination of rising sales and falling inventory quickened the “pace” of the market as the monthly absorption rate fell to 8.6 months.
• Luxury market prices remained lower than year ago levels. Median 13.8% below last year.

PUTNAM

• Sales surged 44.8% year over year.
• Housing prices continued slide year over year – median down 12.5% to $293K
• Inventory fell 10.6%

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

…The third quarter was marked by a surge in sales, and fewer properties available for sale. Falling mortgage rates brought first time buyers into the market, as evidenced by a decline in the average size of a property sold. This also resulted in all price indicators falling below year-ago levels. The median sales price of a Westchester property in the third quarter was $490,000, 1.1% below $495,625 in the prior year quarter. Average sales price and average price per square foot followed the same pattern; the average square footage of sold property was 2,322 square feet, down 1.7% from 2,361 in the prior year quarter…

You can build your own custom data tables on the Westchester & Putnam market – now updated with 3Q 12 data. I’ll have the newly created chart section for Westchester & Putnam uploaded soon (I know I said this last quarter as well!) and add the link here when I do – it’ll be an evolving series.

The Elliman Report: 3Q 2012 Westchester & Putnam Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 2Q 2012 Westchester & Putnam Sales [Prudential Douglas Elliman]

Tags: Absorption

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