Matrix Blog

The PDF version of the 2Q 2007 Manhattan Market Overview [Miller Samuel] that I write for Prudential Douglas Elliman is available for download. I have been writing these market reports for them since 1994.

Here is some additional information from Prudential Douglas Elliman’s CEO/President Dottie Herman covering the 2Q 07 report release. Since she purchased PDE four years ago, she has been unwavering in her support of my requirement to remain independent in the preparation of these reports (and of course, it goes without saying that I am also able to remain dull and boring).

In addition, you can see the methodology that went into the report including the neighborhood boundaries and the type of content we have available.

You can also build your own custom data tables using the aggregate report data (from 1Q 89 through 2Q 2007) and view a series of quarterly market charts, most related to the current market report.

An excerpt

…The number of Manhattan apartment sales are at record levels. Listing inventory has fallen sharply from recent highs. Two of three price indicators tracked in this study set records. Days on market and listing discount indicators are contracting. In contrast, national housing statistics, while not reflective of individual markets, show just the opposite. The New York City economy continues to show improvement coming after two consecutive years of record Wall Street bonus payouts. Preliminary indicators from the financial services sector show more of the same strength bonus income in the coming year. Mortgage rates are low despite recent increases. The government is running a budget surplus, unemployment is low and the weak dollar has brought in significant foreign investment. The constant in the demand/supply equation has been new development activity, whose pace has not abated for the past three years. It contributed to the rise in inventory levels of 2005 and 2006, but the significant demand has more than offset new product added to the market in 2007. The relatively inelastic short term response to demand suggests that the high level of demand is something to focus on for the remainder of the year and through 2008.

Download report: [2Q 2007 Manhattan Market Overview [pdf]](https://www.millersamuel.com/reports/pdf-reports/MMO2Q07.pdf)

Tags: Dottie Herman, Wall Street Bonus

3 Comments

The PDF version of the [1Q 2007 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [Miller Samuel]](https://www.millersamuel.com/reports/) that I write for [Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE]](http://www.prudentialelliman.com/MainSite/MarketReports/ReportsMenu.aspx) is available for download. We just introduced this study series in 2006.

You can see the methodology that went into the report.

You can also [build your own custom data tables](https://www.millersamuel.com/data) using the aggregate report data (from 2Q 2003 through 1Q 2007). I have created a series of quarterly market charts that may be of interest as well.

_An excerpt_

…Overall price indicators showed weakness this quarter particularly at the higher end of the market. Overall median sales price showed relative stability as compared to the same period last year while average sales price showed a modest decline. Inventory levels are expected to level off as seasonal demand increases the number of sales. Current inventory levels remain below those seen in the second and third quarters of last year. However, the number of sales for the quarter is the lowest seen in three years suggesting a lower intensity of sales activity this spring, even when seasonally adjusted….

Download report: 1Q 2007 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [pdf]

Here’s the media coverage for the study. I think I got most of them. Normally I would have covered this the day of publication last week but if you remember, I was kind of in Seine.

Here’s the recap:

Bloomberg News
The Real Deal
New York Observer
Newsday
Crain’s New York

WPIX CW11
Bloomberg Television – In Focus

Bloomberg Radio
Bloomberg Radio

Tags: New York Observer, Radio

Comments Off on 1Q 2007 Long Island/Queens Market Overview Available For Download

The PDF version of the [1997-2006 Manhattan Market Report [Miller Samuel]](https://www.millersamuel.com/reports/) that I write for [Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE]](http://www.prudentialelliman.com) is available for download. I have been writing these market reports for them since 1994. The report is the aggregate of the four previous quarterly reports.

More than 85,000 co-op and condo sales transactions from more than 6,400 buildings over the last ten years were analyzed. Each of the 53 different market areas was analyzed with data tables and charts as well as a summary matrix with prior year and prior decade comparisons.

I lovingly have dubbed this report “The Phone Book” for the pages and pages of “numbers” it contains. Even though the quarterly gets more coverage in the media, this report has about the same number of annual downloads as the four quarterly reports, combined.

In addition, you can see the [methodology]) that went into the report including the [neighborhood boundaries](https://www.millersamuel.com/reports/neighborhood-boundaries-popup.shtml) and the [type of content](https://www.millersamuel.com/data/legend-popup.php) we have available.

You can also [build your own custom data tables](https://www.millersamuel.com/data) using the aggregate report data (1989 to 2006) and view a series of [market charts](https://www.millersamuel.com/charts).

An excerpt

… All Manhattan price indicators set records this year over the records set in the prior year. The average sales price this year was a record $1,295,445, up 6.1% from the prior year record average sales price of $1,221,265. Although the price indicators set records over the past two years, the pace of price growth has slowed considerably. The 6.1% increase in average sales price was well below the 21.6% appreciation rate seen in the prior year as well as the 18.1% appreciation rate that occurred in the year before that. The lowest annual appreciation rate of the past decade occurred in 2002 where the effects of 9/11 brought the appreciation rate down to 2.1% from 9.5% and 37.2% in the prior two years respectively.

At the end of 2006, there were 5,934 units listed for sale, down 0.5% from the prior year total of 5,964 units. The first half of the year, however was characterized by sharply increasing inventory levels, peaking in the second quarter at 7,640 units. Inventory leveled off in the third quarter and dropped back to levels seen at the end of 2005.

For the second straight year the days on market and listing indicators expanded. The increases this year as compared to the prior year were larger, returning to levels that existed before the housing boom began in the early part of this decade….

Download report: 1997-2006 Manhattan Market Report [pdf]

Comments Off on 1997-2006 Manhattan Market Report Is Available For Download

The PDF version of the [4Q 2006 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [Miller Samuel]](https://www.millersamuel.com/reports/) that I write for [Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE]](http://www.prudentialelliman.com/MainSite/MarketReports/ReportsMenu.aspx) is available for download. I have been writing market reports for them since 1994. This market coverage is a relative newcomer to the series.

You can see the [methodology]) that went into the report.

You can also [build your own custom data tables](https://www.millersamuel.com/data) using the aggregate report data (from 2Q 2003 through 4Q 2006). I plan on creating a series of quarterly market [charts like we have for Manhattan](https://www.millersamuel.com/charts/index.php?Node=1168392467huPCj).

_An excerpt_

…Sales prices in the overall market remained relatively stable, kept in check by rising demand and declining inventory. With the cash-out phenomenon waning as existing homeowners, who were not priced at market levels allowed their listings to expire. This has helped clear clutter in the market for buyers. At the same time, sellers appear to be more negotiable this quarter as the listing discount increase at the same time the number of sales did. Lower end price points like the condo market were generally stable but there was weakness in price levels at the upper end of the market, as evidenced by the North Shore and luxury sectors, which saw lower prices at the upper strata but, interestingly, some of the highest increases in the number of sales over the past year…

Download report: [4Q 2006 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [pdf]](https://www.millersamuel.com/reports/pdf-reports/LI-Qu4Q06.pdf)

Comments Off on 4Q 2006 Long Island/Queens Market Overview Available For Download

The PDF version of the [4Q 2006 Manhattan Market Overview [Miller Samuel]](https://www.millersamuel.com/reports/) that I write for [Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE]](http://www.prudentialelliman.com) is available for download. I have been writing these market reports for them since 1994. I neglected to post this on Matrix sooner.

In addition, you can see the [methodology]) that went into the report including the [neighborhood boundaries](https://www.millersamuel.com/reports/neighborhood-boundaries-popup.shtml) and the [type of content](https://www.millersamuel.com/data/legend-popup.php) we have available.

You can also [build your own custom data tables](https://www.millersamuel.com/data) using the aggregate report data (from 1Q 89 through 4Q 2006) and view a series of [quarterly market charts](https://www.millersamuel.com/charts/index.php?Node=1168392467huPCj), many related to the current market report.

_An excerpt_

…Buyers begin to stir as sellers price prop-erties closer to market levels For the past year and a half, the Manhattan market had been characterized by a surplus of listing inventory, with a large portion of it comprised of overpriced resale properties. An abundance of new development inventory has been the focal point of the excess inventory problem. A rift between buyers and sellers emerged as buyers became more demanding about price discounts, resulting in a lower level of sales activity and expanded days on market. Many would-be purchasers moved into the rental market, not because they could not afford to purchase but because there was concern over the near term outlook of the real estate market. However, listing inventory stabilized in the third quarter and dropped sharply in the current quarter as the expiration of over priced resale listings overtook the rise in new development inventory. Record Wall Street bonuses have provided more disposable income and helped keep unemployment levels low. This has helped fuel demand for housing, the effect compounded by four consecutive years of gains because bonus recipients may or may not purchase in the same year their bonus was awarded. Election changes in the federal government last November, more realistic pricing by sellers, a drop in inventory levels as overpriced listings expired, low local unemployment, solid fiscal condition of city government, weakening US dollar, stabilizing mortgage rates and lack of a price correction in six quarters in the post housing boom era have all helped influence buyers to reconsider their position and begin to enter the purchase market again…..

Download report: [4Q 2006 Manhattan Market Overview [pdf]](https://www.millersamuel.com/reports/pdf-reports/MMO4Q06.pdf)

Tags: Wall Street Bonus

Comments Off on 4Q 2006 Manhattan Market Overview Available For Download

Miller Samuel has been producing real estate reports covering the Manhattan market on behalf of Prudential Douglas Elliman for more than 12 years. With a lot of great data out there, it remains a mystery to me why Long Island has not been analyzed like so many other markets in the region have. With roughly 10,000 transactions per quarter, its a substantial market area.

Beginning with the 2nd quarter of this year and now the 3rd quarter, the Long Island Market Overview (LiMO) has been created and is now on track to be released on a timely basis beginning with the 4th quarter 2006 version shortly after the quarter ends.

but I digress…

The LiMO report covers the Queens, Nassau, Suffolk, North Shore, Luxury (top 10%) and Condo markets. The Hamptons and the North Fork are unique enough to warrant a separate report, which is currently in development. Other markets are slated to follow.

excerpt

…The current quarter provided a marked change from the prior quarter results. The average sales price and median sales price showed modest gains, the number of sales increased after a year of steady activity, listing inventory appears to have leveled off, the time it takes to sell a residential property has remained consistent, and sellers are slightly more negotiable. Sellers appear to be more in tune with market conditions, which would explain the combination of larger listing discounts and rising prices, the increase in the number of sales, and stabilizing inventory. Since the seasonal expectations of the next quarter are defined by lower number of sales and weaker price levels, the first quarter of next year will provide a better indicator as to whether the current quarter was an anomaly or the beginning of a new market trend of listing stabilization…

Download the 3Q 2006 Long Island Market Overview.

[Be notified by email when new reports are released](https://www.millersamuel.com/mailman2/listinfo/millersamuel-general).

Comments Off on Long Island 3Q 2006 Is Available for Download

The PDF version of the [3Q 2006 Manhattan Market Overview [Miller Samuel]](https://www.millersamuel.com/reports/) that I write for [Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE]](http://www.prudentialelliman.com) is available for download. I have been writing these market reports for them since 1994. The delay in getting this pretty version ready was my fault this quarter…sorry.

In addition, you can see the [methodology]) that went into the report including the [neighborhood boundaries](https://www.millersamuel.com/reports/neighborhood-boundaries-popup.shtml) and the [type of content](https://www.millersamuel.com/data/legend-popup.php) we have available.

You can also [build your own custom data tables](https://www.millersamuel.com/data) using the aggregate report data (from 1Q 89 through 3Q 2006) and view a series of [market charts](https://www.millersamuel.com/charts), many related to the current market report.

_An excerpt_

…Prices are off in the current quarter from record levels set in the prior quarter but remain above levels seen in the prior year quarter. Overall inventory has stabilized for the first time since the end of 2004 but that appears to be due more to the offsetting decline in co-op re-sale inventory and increase in condo inventory where more than 60% of the growth is attributable to new development. Fixed and adjustable rate mortgage rates fell over the quarter but that did not stimulate additional demand. There seems to be plenty of buyers out there as lenders report rising numbers of pre-qualified buyers. Other factors such as stable local economic conditions, including an optimistic Wall Street bonus outlook, reasonable employment and payroll levels, fiscal austerity by local government and currency exchange rates encouraging foreign investment added to the stability of the market. Nevertheless, these conditions have not convinced would-be buyers to make a purchase decision as evidenced by weaker sales and increased rental activity….

Download report: [3Q 2006 Manhattan Market Overview [pdf]](https://www.millersamuel.com/reports/pdf-reports/MMO3Q06.pdf)

Tags: Wall Street Bonus

2 Comments

The 3Q 2006 Manhattan Market Overview that my appraisal firm, [Miller Samuel](https://www.millersamuel.com), authors for [Prudential Douglas Elliman](http://www.prudentialelliman.com), was released for publication today. The raw numbers were released and a summary of their interpretation were provided to the media. The pretty report will be available for download later this week or early next week. I wait until the end of the quarter before I start working on it so there is not enough time to get it together before publication of the results. This quarter ended last Saturday so it made for a long weekend.

The actual [data](https://www.millersamuel.com/data) and [charts](https://www.millersamuel.com/charts) will be available soon. The [actual report pdf will be available next week](https://www.millersamuel.com/reports).

For perspective, every quarter I place links to articles about the report for a few days after publication to make it easy to compare how each media outlet (big and small media, blogs) presents the exact same set of data.

This article list is presented in no particular order, basically when I found them. I include some duplicate news feeds because I like to see what regions are interested in the story.

[Manhattan real estate finally starts to cool [CNN/Money]](http://money.cnn.com/2006/10/03/real_estate/manhattan_prices/)
[Buying in Manhattan? Apartment Prices Steady [New York Times]](http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/04/nyregion/04estate.html?r=1&ref=nyregion&oref=slogin)
[Manhattan apartment prices slip in latest quarter [New York Daily News]](http://www.nydailynews.com/business/story/458049p-385473c.html)
[Manhattan apartments selling slower [Newsday]](http://www.newsday.com/business/ny-bzside4917396oct04,0,6694883.story?coll=ny-business-print)
[Manhattan apartment market seen in soft landing [Reuters]](http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-10-04T035829Z_01_N03332584_RTRIDST_0_PROPERTY-MANHATTAN.XML)
Manhattan Co-Op Apartment Prices Dip 16% as Buyers Favor Condos [Bloomberg (no link yet)]
[Manhattan Housing Stays Stable [TheStreet.com]](http://www.thestreet.com/_googlen/newsanalysis/realestate/10312833.html?cm_ven=GOOGLEN&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA)
[Manhattan apartment prices leap despite sales drop [Reuters]](http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2006-07-06T043417Z_01_N05280414_RTRUKOC_0_US-PROPERTY-NEWYORK.xml&archived=False)
[Jonathan Miller On Summer ’06: New York Realty Isn’t So Bad [NYO The Real Estate]](http://therealestate.observer.com/2006/10/jonathan-miller-on-summer-06-new-york-realty-isnt-so-bad.html)
[Prices down, sales up in Manhattan housing market; co-op prices slump [The Real Deal]](http://www.therealdeal.net/breaking_news/2006/10/03/1159908890.php)
[As Dow Hits Record High, Homes Falter [NY Sun]](http://www.nysun.com/article/40855)
[N.Y. CRA$H PADS [NY Post]](http://www.nypost.com/seven/10042006/realestate/n_y_crah_pads_realestate_braden_keil.htm)
[Manhattan real estate market slows down [Inman]](http://www.inman.com/inmannews.aspx?ID=57457)
[DownMarket Reports: Choose Your Own Adventure! [Curbed]](http://www.curbed.com/archives/2006/10/04/downmarket_reports_choose_your_own_adventure.php#more)
[Sector Snap: Manhattan Apartment REITs [AP]](http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/fn/4235495.html) [Highlights from the Prudential Douglas Elliman Third Quarter Overview [True Gotham]](http://www.truegotham.com/archives/market-insight-highlights-from-the-prudential-douglas-elliman-third-quarter-overview.html)
[Manhattan residential real estate market cools [Valuation Review]](http://www.valuationreview.com/ME2/Audiences/dirmod.asp?sid=270E8EBA5AF64172B917EBD588EDB85A&nm=Daily+News&type=news&mod=News&mid=5F249E552B2C49509BC41751816632F3&AudID=F0F48C5C19CB47B3A675FD6074A3CB8A&tier=3&nid=0853B418C9114E35A4BC32644DA38B8B)

Here are a handful of tv spots as well.

[[WABC]](https://www.millersamuel.com/press/view.php?V=1160274846fKCHR)

[[Bloomberg TV]](https://www.millersamuel.com/press/view.php?V=1160186075fWQvH)

[[WCBS]](https://www.millersamuel.com/press/view.php?V=1160187666QIxbS)

[[WCBS]](https://www.millersamuel.com/press/view.php?V=1160187547ouxHm)

Tags: New York Observer

6 Comments

The PDF version of the [2Q 2006 Manhattan Market Overview [Miller Samuel]](https://www.millersamuel.com/reports/) that I write for [Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE]](http://www.prudentialelliman.com) is available for download. I have been writing these market reports for them since 1994.

In addition, you can see the [methodology]) that went into the report including the [neighborhood boundaries](https://www.millersamuel.com/reports/neighborhood-boundaries-popup.shtml) and the [type of content](https://www.millersamuel.com/data/legend-popup.php) we have available.

You can also [build your own custom data tables](https://www.millersamuel.com/data) using the aggregate report data (from 1Q 89 through 2Q 2006).





_An excerpt_

…The phenomenon of rising prices and declining sales is a classic sign of a market in transition. The market has entered a period where the sellers no longer have a clear advantage in the typical sales transaction. Buyers were expecting a deep discount on all transactions while sellers remained fairly firm in their pricing. As a result, the number of sales dropped as the buyers who were resistant to rising prices simply chose not to participate, while those who stayed in the market paid record prices on average. The modest uptick in mortgage rates since the beginning of the year tempered demand as both existing and new development inventory was rising. While inventory levels are the highest they have been in ten years, the selection for buyers has not improved as much as the inventory numbers would suggest as sellers have not yet responded to the weaker demand. There is still a substantial portion of listings that are priced as if the market was seeing double-digit annual appreciation that occurred over the past several years. As a result, it is taking longer to sell an apartment and there is generally more negotiability…

Download report: [2Q 2006 Manhattan Market Overview [pdf]](https://www.millersamuel.com/reports/pdf-reports/PDE2Q06.pdf)

1 Comment

I was a bit tardy getting these posted online, but here are the [PDF versions of our two latest market reports](https://www.millersamuel.com/reports/) that I write for [Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE]](http://www.prudentialelliman.com).

In addition, you can see the [methodology]) that went into the reports including the [neighborhood boundaries](https://www.millersamuel.com/reports/neighborhood-boundaries-popup.shtml) and the [type of content](https://www.millersamuel.com/data/legend-popup.php) we have available. You can also [build your own custom data tables](https://www.millersamuel.com/data) here [aggregate data for 1Q 2006 will be available online early next week in this data section):

[1Q 2006 Manhattan Market Overview [pdf]](https://www.millersamuel.com/reports/pdf-reports/PDE1Q06.pdf)

A quarterly survey of more than 2,000 Manhattan co-op and condo sales.

Although the three price indicators showed growth over the prior year quarter and the prior quarter, price per square foot best characterizes market conditions for the current quarter since it is least impacted by the shift in unit mix toward larger apartments this quarter. The average price per square foot of $1,004 was the highest ever recorded in this study but was essentially unchanged from the prior quarter result of $1,002 for a 0.2% increase. The average sales price and median sales price jumped 9.6% and 8.6% respectively over the prior quarter. The average sales price was one of the highest on record at $1,300,928, second only to the second quarter of 2005 when the average sales price set an all-time record of $1,317,528. This indicator was 7.1% above the prior year quarter average sales price of $1,214,379. Median sales price saw a similar pattern, setting a record at $825,000 in the current quarter, up 17% over the prior year quarter median sales price of $705,000. The contradiction in the average price per square foot compared to these indicators was due to a shift in the mix of apartments to larger units that sold for the quarter…

[Manhattan Market Report 1996-2005 [pdf]](https://www.millersamuel.com/reports/pdf-reports/PDE05.pdf)

More than 80,000 co-op and condo sales transactions from more than 6,400 buildings over the last ten years were analyzed. Each of the 53 different market areas was analyzed with data tables and charts as well as a summary matrix with prior year and prior decade comparisons.

The Manhattan market saw record prices in all major price categories: Average sales price, average price per square foot and median sales price. All categories saw year-over-year gains in excess of 20%. Average sales price remained above $1,000,000 and set a record of $1,221,265, increasing 21.6% over the price year average of $1,004,232. Average price per square foot set a record at $965, increasing 25.8% over the prior year average price per square foot of $767. Median sales price set a record at $750,000, increasing 23.8% over the prior year median sales price of $605,859.With all three price indicators showing similar percentage gains, there were broad-based price increases across most market categories. One of the distinctive characteristics of the market in 2005 was the decline in the number of transactions. A modest increase in mortgage rates and double-digit price gains have reduced affordability. Mortgage rates were above the prior year but are still below levels seen ten years ago. Analysts expect fixed and adjustable rates to increase slightly in the first half of 2006 as the economy continues to improve but the shift in the housing market to more modest price gains may keep further near term rate gains in check…

Comments Off on Manhattan Market Reports Available For Download

Sorry for being largely absent this week. I released our 3rd quarter market report and its been a [frenzy of coverage, to say the least. [Miller Samuel]](https://www.millersamuel.com/press) The report will be available for download in a few days. I’ll also provide an interpretation of the results – a lot of slinging and exaggerations are making the rounds.

I will be back at full strength on Friday.

best,

Jonathan

Tags: Soapbox Blog

Comments Off on Back on Friday!

Sorry for being largely absent this week. I released our 3rd quarter market report and its been a [frenzy of coverage, to say the least. [Miller Samuel]](https://www.millersamuel.com/press) The report will be available for download in a few days. I’ll also provide an interpretation of the results – a lot of slinging and exaggerations are making the rounds.

I will be back at full strength on Friday.

best,

Jonathan

2 Comments