The PDF version of the [3Q 2006 Manhattan Market Overview [Miller Samuel]]( that I write for [Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE]]( is available for download. I have been writing these market reports for them since 1994. The delay in getting this pretty version ready was my fault this quarter…sorry.

In addition, you can see the [methodology]) that went into the report including the [neighborhood boundaries]( and the [type of content]( we have available.

You can also [build your own custom data tables]( using the aggregate report data (from 1Q 89 through 3Q 2006) and view a series of [market charts](, many related to the current market report.

_An excerpt_

…Prices are off in the current quarter from record levels set in the prior quarter but remain above levels seen in the prior year quarter. Overall inventory has stabilized for the first time since the end of 2004 but that appears to be due more to the offsetting decline in co-op re-sale inventory and increase in condo inventory where more than 60% of the growth is attributable to new development. Fixed and adjustable rate mortgage rates fell over the quarter but that did not stimulate additional demand. There seems to be plenty of buyers out there as lenders report rising numbers of pre-qualified buyers. Other factors such as stable local economic conditions, including an optimistic Wall Street bonus outlook, reasonable employment and payroll levels, fiscal austerity by local government and currency exchange rates encouraging foreign investment added to the stability of the market. Nevertheless, these conditions have not convinced would-be buyers to make a purchase decision as evidenced by weaker sales and increased rental activity….

Download report: [3Q 2006 Manhattan Market Overview [pdf]](


  1. WT Economist October 24, 2006 at 8:11 am

    If you’ve got it, I’d really like to see data on condo and coop prices from the 1980s and early 1990s. It might put the recent run-up and current uncertainty in context.

    I’ve decided the market has become so bizzare that, were I an appraiser, I would use the “income approach” typically used for income producing properties for owner-occupied units as well. But based on the incomes of the people who have purchased in the area in recent years and traditional mortgage underwriting criteria. After figuring out what the area SHOULD BE selling for, I would only use comparable sales to adjust for the value of a property relative to the area average.

    My guess is in late 2007 and into 2008 people will be looking for criteria for a “fair price” and a “bottom.”

  2. Sandy Mattingly October 24, 2006 at 2:25 pm

    THX for (finally) getting the Q3 report out, JM. I was beginning to think that PruDE was blocking my server, given the number of times I checked their site for the report since the press reported your big numbers.

    You have some impressionistic stuff in your Loft Market section (“… a temporary shift in the type of loft properties …”); I wonder if you have a sense of how much of the loft market the last two years has been new top-end condo development.

    My sense is that there is a disproportionately large variation in the quality of, say, 2000 sq ft lofts, compared to, say Upper East Side Classic Sixes. So if the recent transactions are heavily skewed to brand new uber-lofts in Tribeca (compared to Flatiron lofts that have not been renovated in 15 years), the loft averages would be inflated – especially with the relatively small number of transactions. Sorry for the syntax garble, but I hope you know what I mean….

    Any thoughts on that mix issue for loft sales reported?

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