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The 1Q 2008 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [pdf] that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE] is available for download. We took over the preparation of this market area study for them in 2Q 06.

You can see the methodology that went into the report.

An excerpt

..Price indicators for the quarter will mixed as compared to the same period a year ago. The average sales price was $514,135, up 3.6% while the median sales price of $435,000 was down 0.6%. The number of sales were down 14.1% to 6,015 units while inventory levels were up 10.2% to 35,209 units. A weaker economy and difficulties with access to credit have tempered the demand for housing compared to the past several years. The expansion of the days on market indicator and rising inventory levels are the result of reduced demand, yet the pace of inventory growth is easing. The next quarter tends to be the most active quarter of the year as characterized by elevated sales activity and price growth…

Download report: 1Q 2008 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [pdf]

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Although it is April Fool’s Day, I realized I was negligent in posting the Hamptons/North Fork report on Matrix and my web site (hey, I know 1Q 08 is now over and I am working on that report.) The report was previously available at the Prudential Douglas Elliman site.

The PDF version of the 4Q 2007 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview [Miller Samuel] is available for download. I have been writing various incarnations of my New York regional market report series for them since 1994.

In short order (by 1Q 08), I’ll be adding data tables and charts to the Miller Samuel web site.

An excerpt

…The average sales price of an East End property was $1,487,161 in the current quarter, up 17.6% from the $1,264,165 average sales price of the same period last year. Median sales price, which generally eliminates price outliers, showed a similar pattern. The median sales price was $800,000, an increase of 14.7% above the prior year quarter median sales price of $697,500. Over the past few years, the year over year pace of price growth in the third quarter has been larger than any other quarter of the year. The higher price levels reached in the third quarter have inferred quarter over quarter weakness going to the fourth quarter…Over the past year, the pace of price increases in the East End has been higher in the luxury sector…

Download report: 4Q 2007 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview [pdf]

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Last week I gave a recap an overview of the New York region at a recent Crain’s Economic Breakfast Forum at the New York Hyatt.

Click here for a 5 minute clip of the one hour session.

Tags: Crains New York Business

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The 4Q 2007 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [pdf] that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE] is available for download. We introduced this market area study in 2Q 06 for them.

You can see the methodology that went into the report.

_An excerpt_

…The overall median sales price for Long Island/Queens showed a decline over the prior year quarter. Over the same period, average sales price showed a similar pattern of decline as did the number of sales. Listing inventory continued to expand as did the days on market and listing discount indicators. These market patterns are being seen in many suburban markets across the country, made worse by the turmoil seen in the credit markets since last summer. This has impacted affordability with higher down payment requirements, and more stringent underwriting guidelines applied to buyer mortgage applications. A constraint on the flow of transactions has the effect of reducing the number of sales, which in turn raises inventory levels and tempers the potential for rising prices in the spring market…

Download report: 4Q 2007 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [pdf]

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Well, its been a long time coming because extracting data from the East End has been the most challenging of all the reports I have done to date, but the Hamptons/North Fork has finally been added to the family of market reports I prepare for Prudential Douglas Elliman.

The PDF version of the 3Q 2007 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview [Miller Samuel] is available for download. I have been writing various incarnations of this market report series for them since 1994.

In short order (by 4Q), I’ll be adding data tables and charts to the Miller Samuel web site.

An excerpt

…The average sales price of a residential property in the East End was $1,805,104 this quarter, up 32.7% from the prior year quarter average sales price of $1,360,515 and up 8.2% from the prior quarter average sales price of $1,668,657. The median sales price was $882,000, up 23% from the prior year quarter median sales price of $717,340 but slipped 2% from the $900,000 median sales price in the prior quarter. The nearly identical growth in these indicators from the prior year quarter suggests that average sales price was not significantly skewed by the upper end of the market. Listing inventory, however, increased 27.8% from the prior quarter total of 3,501 units to 4,475 units in the current quarter. The tracking of inventory levels for this report began in 2007….In contrast to the rise in price indicators, the number of sales continued to slip. There were 427 sales in the current quarter, down 30.5% from the prior year quarter total of 614 and down 31.6% from the prior quarter total of 624 units. The sharp increase in price levels has likely played a significant role in the diminished number of sales this quarter. This is also consistent with the recent increase in listing inventory…

Download report: 3Q 2007 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview [pdf]

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The 3Q 2007 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [pdf] that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE] is available for download. We created this market area study in 2006.

You can see the methodology that went into the report.

_An excerpt_

…Price trends varied widely by market and price segment. Inventory increased over the past year, but dropped as compared to the prior quarter as the number of sales has continued to decline. Average days on market and average listing discount expanded versus the prior year quarter but declined from the prior quarter. The mixed results for the quarter suggests that the overall Long Island/Queens market is moving “sideways” for the time being, with no clear pattern evident. The median sales price of a Long Island/Queens single family or condo was $445,000, down 2.2% from the prior year record median sales price of $455,000 and unchanged from the prior quarter median sales price. The average sales price was a record $530,916, up 1.3% from the record $524,073 seen in the prior year quarter and up 4.8% from the prior quarter average sales price of $506,580. Suffolk showed the most gains in average sales price with a record $469,331 average sales price, up 2.3% from the prior year quarter. Nassau was the next highest with a record $628,839 average sales price, up 1.7% from the prior year quarter. Queens showed the most weakness with a 2.9% decline to $484,847 from the record average sales price in the prior year quarter. The luxury market showed unexpected price growth this quarter as evidenced by the upper two quintiles in Suffolk and Nassau counties….

Download report: 3Q 2007 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [pdf]

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The Real Deal Magazine which has experienced phenomenal growth and is a must-read reasource for the New York housing market, has made a real commitment to the videocast format and delivers new video content on their web site every week. Look for my regular new podcast feature, coming soon.

I just released my 2Q 2007 Long Island/Queens Market Overview for Prudential Douglas Elliman and this interview covers the results, with emphasis on Queens. You can download a copy of the report.

To watch the videocast.

Tags: Television

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The 2Q 2007 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [pdf] that I write for Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE] is available for download. We created this market area study in 2006.

You can see the methodology that went into the report.

You can also build your own custom data tables using the aggregate report data (from 2Q 2003 through 2Q 2007 [2Q 2007 – to be uploaded shortly]). I have created a series of quarterly market charts that may also be of interest.

_An excerpt_

…Both average sales price and median sales price indicators approached stabilization, after two years of decline. However, changes in price levels varied by price strata and market area. The most notable price changes occurred in a weaker North Shore market and a stronger Queens condo market. Despite stabilizing prices, the overall number of sales fell across the entire region with the North Shore market being the only market to show a gain as compared to the same period last year. As a result of diminished demand, inventory levels have continued to rise, causing other market indicators like days on market and listing discount to expand. A decline in the overall number of sales in one of the most active quarters of the year suggests that the housing market may experience continued weakness in the near future…..

Download report: 2Q 2007 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [pdf]

Here’s a brief summary of the media coverage for the study. Its interesting to place the coverage side-by-side because its based on the same data.

Here’s the recap:

Queens-Long Island Home Prices Little Changed in Second Quarter [Bloomberg]
HARSH REALTY IN QUEENS. [New York Post]
LI, Queens housing sales still cool [Newsday]
LI, Queens housing sales still cool [amNew York]
Queens prices down in 2nd quarter [The Real Deal]
Queens Residential Market Drops, Except for the Pricey Stuff [Curbed]
Queens-Long Island Home Prices [Bloomberg Radio (no clip yet)]

Tags: Radio

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The Westchester-Putnam Multiple Listing Service, Inc. provides a quarterly analysis of the real estate market. Considered a suburb of New York City, Westchester County, NY along with Fairfield County, CT, Northern New Jersey and Long Island are an important part of the New York City real estate market. A Matrix reader suggested I provide a summary each time the report is released by the MLS.

Courtesy of WestchesterTowns

Westchester County is known for its higher end housing stock that serves as one of the primary markets to families that sell in the city and move to the suburbs. The second home market in New York has also benefited from empty-nesters who have sold their properties in Westchester and have moved to the city. Cities like White Plains and New Rochelle (Remember Rob and Laurie Petrrie?) have undergone downtown revitalization.

The number of sales are up, despite the increase in inventory. Prices show more weakness in 1-family and 2-5 family properties compared to the same period last year while co-op and condo prices are up slightly.

2007 FIRST QUARTER AND FULL YEAR RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE SALES REPORT [“sales statistics” link for pdf]

Here are excerpts from the report

Westchester’s residential real estate market evidenced strength in the first quarter of 2007 as the number of reported closed transactions increased by nearly 6% from those of a year ago. Realtors participating in the Westchester-Putnam Multiple Listing Service reported 1,927 closings in Westchester in the first three months of the year, nearly achieving the first quarter record of 1,998 closings established in 2005. First quarter closings largely reflect sales activity in the late autumn and winter months.

Within that overall increase, however, the performance of individual property types varied widely. While single-family house sales increased by 11% and condominiums by 17%, co- op sales numbered 4.5% fewer than last year, and 2-5 family house sales were down by 17%. Further, in Putnam County, total sales were down by 20% from last year.

On a seasonally adjusted1 basis, because prior quarter sales volumes since 2005 had been trending downwards, the 2007 uptick produced an 18% increase from the prior quarter’s adjusted rate. The actual first quarter sales were equivalent to an annual rate of 10,250 sales in Westchester, which if sustained for the rest of the year would place 2007 on a par with the high-performing 2005 market.

Tags: NAR, National Association of Realtors

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The PDF version of the 1Q 2007 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [Miller Samuel] that I write for Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE] is available for download. We just introduced this study series in 2006.

You can see the methodology that went into the report.

You can also build your own custom data tables using the aggregate report data (from 2Q 2003 through 1Q 2007). I have created a series of quarterly market charts that may be of interest as well.

_An excerpt_

…Overall price indicators showed weakness this quarter particularly at the higher end of the market. Overall median sales price showed relative stability as compared to the same period last year while average sales price showed a modest decline. Inventory levels are expected to level off as seasonal demand increases the number of sales. Current inventory levels remain below those seen in the second and third quarters of last year. However, the number of sales for the quarter is the lowest seen in three years suggesting a lower intensity of sales activity this spring, even when seasonally adjusted….

Download report: 1Q 2007 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [pdf]

Here’s the media coverage for the study. I think I got most of them. Normally I would have covered this the day of publication last week but if you remember, I was kind of in Seine.

Here’s the recap:

Bloomberg News
The Real Deal
New York Observer
Newsday
Crain’s New York

WPIX CW11
Bloomberg Television – In Focus

Bloomberg Radio
Bloomberg Radio

Tags: New York Observer, Radio

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The PDF version of the 4Q 2006 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [Miller Samuel] that I write for Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE] is available for download. I have been writing market reports for them since 1994. This market coverage is a relative newcomer to the series.

You can see the [methodology]) that went into the report.

You can also build your own custom data tables using the aggregate report data (from 2Q 2003 through 4Q 2006). I plan on creating a series of quarterly market charts like we have for Manhattan.

_An excerpt_

…Sales prices in the overall market remained relatively stable, kept in check by rising demand and declining inventory. With the cash-out phenomenon waning as existing homeowners, who were not priced at market levels allowed their listings to expire. This has helped clear clutter in the market for buyers. At the same time, sellers appear to be more negotiable this quarter as the listing discount increase at the same time the number of sales did. Lower end price points like the condo market were generally stable but there was weakness in price levels at the upper end of the market, as evidenced by the North Shore and luxury sectors, which saw lower prices at the upper strata but, interestingly, some of the highest increases in the number of sales over the past year…

Download report: 4Q 2006 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [pdf]

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[The Westchester-Putnam Multiple Listing Service, Inc. provides a quarterly analysis of the real estate market. Considered a suburb of New York City, Westchester County, NY along with Fairfield County, CT, Northern New Jersey and Long Island are an important part of the New York City real estate market. A Matrix reader suggested I provide a summary each time the report is released by the MLS.]

Courtesy of WestchesterTowns

Westchester County (remember Chappaqua, where President Clinton purchased?) is known for its higher end housing stock that serves as one of the primary markets to families that sell in the city and move to the suburbs. The second home market in New York has also benefited from empty-nesters who have sold their properties in Westchester and have moved to the city.

On the flip side, the county is also known for its high real estate taxes, its maximum security state prison, Sing Sing, and a nuclear power plant, Indian Point.

In reviewing the charts, I was struck by how high current sales levels actually are, how pricing appeared to drift sideways with some weakness during the year and how sharply inventory dropped, even though it is still higher than last year.

2006 FOURTH QUARTER AND FULL YEAR RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE SALES REPORT [“sales statistics” link for pdf]

Here are excerpts from the report

Westchester’s multi-year run-up to record-high residential real estate sales and prices in 2005 abruptly halted in 2006. Realtors participating in the Westchester-Putnam Multiple Listing Service reported 9,167 closed sales in Westchester in 2006, a decrease of 13% from 2005. In Putnam County, the 1,001 sales for the year constituted a 23% decrease from 2005.

The signals of possible contraction in the local real estate market were evidenced in the seasonally adjusted data from as early as the third quarter of 2005. Nevertheless, the speed and depth of the contraction as it actually occurred early in the first quarter of 2006 caught the market by surprise, and the downturn persisted through the year.

The 2006 sales volume reset the market to levels last experienced in 2002 and 2003. Those were actually good years for real estate on an historical basis. However, Westchester’s overall backsliding of 13% in sales volume would have been greater were it not for the relatively moderate slowdown in the condominium and cooperative sectors in comparison to single family houses. Whereas house sales dropped nearly 17% from 2005 to 2006, condo sales decreased by less than 1%, and co-ops by only 9%.

Westchester’s year-end inventory of 5,774 units in all categories was 21% higher than at the end of 2005, and that percentage applied fairly uniformly among the major property types. In Putnam County there were 943 units available at the end of the year, a 15% increase from 2005.

Tags: NAR, National Association of Realtors

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