Matrix Blog

The Real Deal Magazine is hosting its third annual New Development Forum. With nearly 3,000 seats in Avery Fisher Hall, its amazing to me that its nearly sold out and projected to be at full capacity by show date.

I am excited to be a panelist and fully expect to learn a lot from my co-panelists. With my lack of artistic talent, this is the only way for me to get on stage at Lincoln Center.

Hope to see you there. Next stop, Carnegie Hall.

Click here to purchase tickets.

Comments Off on The Science Of Real Estate At Lincoln Center 3-20-2007

The Real Deal Magazine is hosting its third annual New Development Forum. Last year it was held at Cooper-Union with over 1,000 attendees, a line out the door and many turned away because of limited seating capacity. This year the venue has been moved to Lincoln Center with a seating capacity of 3,000.

I was invited to participate in the panel discussion, and as a big fan of The Real Deal Magazine, I accepted.

Robert Shiller (who is one of my economist heroes – is there such a thing?) will be there as well as Amanda Burden Chair of the NYC Planning Commission and other notable icons in the development industry. The panel will be moderated by Steve Cuozzo, Managing Editor of the New York Post, who did a great job last year in what was a standing room only ruckus of an event.

Click here to purchase tickets.

Tags: Robert Shiller

1 Comment

The Real Deal Magazine has pursued with relentless energy the videocasting medium. As much as I enjoy this effort, I also still love the podcast format because I get to ramble (If you know me, you know I am unable to provide short answers to anything). This week, I was recovering the from the flu and look a little pale (podcasts hide this stuff). Starting next quarter, I will be doing a podcast presentation on the market that will be more freeform in addition to this videocast.

Becaused Curbed teased me with the link last quarter: “Jonathan Miller has a lot of books” on the inaugural broadcast, The Real Deal promised no book backgrounds this time. Of course, someone forgot to tell production, but I seem to have less than before so I must be reading less these days.

To watch the broadcast which starts with my interview which runs 5:30.

Tags: Television

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The 4Q 2006 Manhattan Market Overview that my appraisal firm, Miller Samuel, authors for Prudential Douglas Elliman, was released for publication today. In order to include the entire quarter for the study, I spent the good part of the New Years weekend while away on vacation in a Starbucks crunching and analyzing while drinking too many vanilla skim lattes. Thats why the pretty version of the report will be available in a few days rather at the point of release to the media.

The raw numbers were released and my summary of their interpretation were provided to the media for the coverage today. The actual data and charts will be available soon online. I tend focus only on the data collection, verification and analysis until the media publishes the findings.

Each quarter I place links to articles about our market report for a few days after publication for perspective (plus I am obessed with making lists) to make it easy to compare how each media outlet (big and small media, blogs) presents the exact same set of data.

This article list is presented in no particular order, basically when I found them. I also include some duplicate news feeds because I like to see what regions are interested in the story – I place those near the bottom because of the repetition. I’ll keep adding links through the end of the week.

Home Prices Fall Just a Bit; Brokers See ‘Soft Landing’ [NYT]
Manhattan real estate cools off [CNN/Money]
Real estate still strong [NY Daily News]
NYC APTS PRICED TO SELL: STUDY [NY Post]
Apartments up at least 5% in Manhattan [Newsday]
Manhattan Apartment Prices Rise 3.2%, Sidestep U.S. Declines [Bloomberg]
Reports Contradict Predictions of Apartment Market Slump [NY Sun]
Manhattan apartment downturn short-lived: report [Reuters]
Brokerages Turn in Homework for the Semester [Curbed]
Brokerages: Market is stable [The Real Deal]
A Look Back in 2007! Manhattan Is Still an Islan [NYO-The Lab]
Reports show real estate slowdown [AM New York]
Average Manhattan apt: $1.2M [Metro]
Home is where B’klyn bucks are, reports show [NY Daily News]
Market for Manhattan Apts. Strong [Chicago Tribune]
Market for Manhattan apartments remained strong in 2006 [Boston Herald]
Real Estate Bubble Slowly Deflating, Not Bursting [Gothamist]
Market for Manhattan Apts. Strong [Tuscaloosa News]
Manhattan apartments go for an average $1.14-million (U.S.) [Globe and Mail, Canada]
Market for Manhattan apartments remained strong in 2006 despite national dip, analysts say [San Diego Union Tribune]
Market for Manhattan Apts. Strong [Sun-Sentinel]
Manhattan apartment downturn short-lived: report [WaPo]
Manhattan apartment downturn short-lived: report [MSN Money]
Manhattan apartment downturn short-lived: report [KPLC-TV/Lake Charles, LA]
Manhattan apartment downturn short-lived: report [Reuters Canada]
Market for Manhattan apartments remained strong in 2006 despite national dip, analysts say [IHT]
Mean Manhattan apt. price up to $1.1M [ABC]
Healthy Year for Manhattan Real Estate Market [RISMedia]
NYC Apartment Market Prices Up with Inventory Growth Dropping Sharply [Earthtimes]
NYC Apartment Market Prices Up with Inventory Growth Dropping Sharply [Yahoo Business]
Reuters Canada Business Summary [Globe and Mail]
Manhattan real estate prices still rising in Q4 [Inman – Subsc]
Manhattan real estate market remains strong [Courier News (NJ)]

Radio and TV clips

[January 8, 2007] The Real Deal
[January 7, 2007] WABC-TV
[January 3, 2007] Bloomberg TV
[January 3, 2007] WABC-TV
[January 3, 2007] WABC-TV
[January 3, 2007] WABC-TV
[January 3, 2007] WNBC-TV
[January 3, 2007] Bloomberg TV
[January 3, 2007] Bloomberg TV
[January 3, 2007] Bloomberg TV

[January 3, 2007] Bloomberg Radio
[January 3, 2007] Bloomberg Radio
[January 3, 2007] Bloomberg Radio

Tags: New York Observer, Canadian Housing Market, Radio

2 Comments

The Real Deal Magazine has moved from podcasting to “newscasting” (videocasting). As much as I love the podcast medium, video has enormous potential. They invited me to be their first victim guest as they tweak the new medium.

Of course, Curbed teases with the link: “Jonathan Miller has a lot of books”

To watch the broadcast (11:00), click here.

Tags: Television

1 Comment

The 3Q 2006 Manhattan Market Overview that my appraisal firm, Miller Samuel, authors for Prudential Douglas Elliman, was released for publication today. The raw numbers were released and a summary of their interpretation were provided to the media. The pretty report will be available for download later this week or early next week. I wait until the end of the quarter before I start working on it so there is not enough time to get it together before publication of the results. This quarter ended last Saturday so it made for a long weekend.

The actual data and charts will be available soon. The actual report pdf will be available next week.

For perspective, every quarter I place links to articles about the report for a few days after publication to make it easy to compare how each media outlet (big and small media, blogs) presents the exact same set of data.

This article list is presented in no particular order, basically when I found them. I include some duplicate news feeds because I like to see what regions are interested in the story.

Manhattan real estate finally starts to cool [CNN/Money]
Buying in Manhattan? Apartment Prices Steady [New York Times]
Manhattan apartment prices slip in latest quarter [New York Daily News]
Manhattan apartments selling slower [Newsday]
Manhattan apartment market seen in soft landing [Reuters]
Manhattan Co-Op Apartment Prices Dip 16% as Buyers Favor Condos [Bloomberg (no link yet)]
Manhattan Housing Stays Stable [TheStreet.com]
Manhattan apartment prices leap despite sales drop [Reuters]
Jonathan Miller On Summer ’06: New York Realty Isn’t So Bad [NYO The Real Estate]
Prices down, sales up in Manhattan housing market; co-op prices slump [The Real Deal]
As Dow Hits Record High, Homes Falter [NY Sun]
N.Y. CRA$H PADS [NY Post]
Manhattan real estate market slows down [Inman]
DownMarket Reports: Choose Your Own Adventure! [Curbed]
Sector Snap: Manhattan Apartment REITs [AP] Highlights from the Prudential Douglas Elliman Third Quarter Overview [True Gotham]
Manhattan residential real estate market cools [Valuation Review]

Here are a handful of tv spots as well.

[WABC]

[Bloomberg TV]

[WCBS]

[WCBS]

Tags: New York Observer

6 Comments

[The Real Deal has innovated the delivery of information about the New York real estate market in its magazine and online format to its readership. This podcast is part of a series on the state of the New York housing market. -ed]

Jonathan Miller

Prices are at record highs, but sales keep dropping – what’s going on in the Manhattan housing market? Jonathan Miller explains the second-quarter numbers. [TRD]

The podcast format allows me to summarize the results of the just completed 2nd Quarter 2006 Prudential Douglas Elliman Manhattan Market Overview and provide some insights into the future of the market (while looking admittedly Trump-esq) in 7:37 minutes.

For hard stats, you can view those right now on my web site. The pretty report will be posted on my web site later this week.

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The 2Q 2006 Manhattan Market Overview that my appraisal firm, Miller Samuel, prepares for Prudential Douglas Elliman, was released today. Each quarter I place links throughout the day of publication to make it easy to compare how each media outlet (big and small media, blogs) presents the exact same set of data.

Even more interesting to me is how the other real estate brokerage companies who write alternative reports, frame their comments in the articles. While I have not had access to their specific results, I understand that some of the statistics such as average sales price, differed from the results in our report. Some of the reporters that cover the real estate market in New York have expressed frustration at trying to discern what actually happened this quarter.

To view the actual data and charts (going live by noon Friday 7-7-07). The actual report pdf will be available next week.

This list is in no particular order and were generally presented when I found them. I included some of the duplicate news feeds because I found it interesting who picked up the story. I will keep adding to the list through the remainder of the week.

Little Shift in Prices of Manhattan Apartments [NYT]
Manhattan Has Most Apartments for Sale Since 1994, Report Says [Bloomberg]
Mixed messages on Manhattan home prices [CNN/Money]
Manhattan apt. price hits record [NY Daily News]
Disparities in Manhattan apartment prices show a market that is neither booming nor busting [NY Newsday]
Condo Expectations May Be Rethought As Prices Plunge [NY Sun]
Manhattan apartment prices leap despite sales drop [Reuters]
Manhattan real estate inventory grows [Inman]
NYC Housing Prices Keep Climbing [TheStreet.com]
Manhattan condos again outsell co-ops [The Real Deal]
Sales drop, prices rise in Manhattan market [The Real Deal]
2nd Quarter 2006: “The Boom is Done” [The Real Estate]
Manhattan housing prices up [USAToday (Miller Samuel)]
Brokerages Submit Reports, Hope to Avoid Summer School [Curbed]
Manhattan Apartment Price Hits Record Highs [All Headline News]
Investing: Rising rates depress N.Y. apartment sales [IHT]

_Duplicate News Feeds_
Sales mellow in Manhattan [Houston Chronicle]
Manhattan apartment prices leap despite sales drop [Yahoo News]
Manhattan has most apartments for sale since 1994 [The Journal News (Westchester, NY)]
Manhattan apartment prices leap despite sales drop [Washington Post]
Sales of Manhattan apartments falling [Sun-Sentinel]
Apartments On The Market In Manhattan Hit 12-Year High [Tampa Tribune]
Manhattan apartment prices leap despite sales drop [MSN Money]
Manhattan apartment prices leap despite sales drop [7KPLC (Lake Charles, Louisiana)]
Manhattan apartment prices leap despite sales drop [Wave3 (Louisville, Kentucky)]

Here are a handful of radio and tv spots as well – more to come.

[Bloomberg TV]

[WPIX WB11]

Morning Call [Bloomberg TV]

Bloomberg Morning Markets [Bloomberg TV]

Squawk Box [CNBC]

News at Ten [WB11]

News at 5 [Fox 5]

WSJ Report [WCBS Radio]
NPR poor fidelity – better clip coming [WNYC]

Tags: FHA, CNBC, New York Observer, Radio

4 Comments

Source: NYT

I must admit, I have really enjoyed the burst of creativity in new architectural design as it relates to residential housing. It became all the rave during the later years of the recent housing boom. Some architects were name-brands before this trend but others have been marketed so heavily by developers that they become famous by their recent works.

I was reading the article Miami Is All About Its Celebrity Architects [NYT] this weekend and it occured to me:

• Isn’t this the same Miami while gushing about its architecture that has a massive oversupply of new condos coming online over the next year?

• Isn’t this simply a game of oneupmanship? Increased competition has raised the stakes for differentiation rather than some clever awareness of changing lifestyles?

With all the Starchitect developments in the major metro markets (and its all virtually the same players in the major markets), honestly, how many have been runaway hits in the past 3 years? …Sold out quickly or at least faster than the norm?

Have developers simply been caught up in the hype? Can we mark the beginning of the end of the boom when their use became popularized (say mid-2004)?

I wonder.

Here’s a few of Starchitect articles of interest:
Celebrity Architects: Behind the Curtain Wall [The Real Deal]
Should colleges hire star architects? [Chronicle]
Condo Couture [NY Mag]
Playing the Fame Game [LA Dwtn]

Comments Off on Its A Good Time To Be A Famous Architect, Even If You Are Not That Famous

The always contrarian and interesting Freakonomics co-author Stephen Dubner, a former editor and a regular contributor to the New York Times Magazine was interviewed by Tom Acitelli of the Real Deal in their very cool podcast interview series format. Freakonomics also runs a very good blog.

The author states that brokers aren’t as necessary to real estate as you might think and forces beyond their control may soon spark changes in brokering. Its all about inefficiency. Freakonomics sparked controversy in the past for claiming that real estate brokers want the sale price to be set lower so they can move the property fast and the incremental benefit of a higher commission is not the motivation. I took issue with some of this logic in a prior post.

One of the weaknesses of their argument is the idea that all brokers can be lumped into one category. Its analogous to a national housing bubble. The markets are segmented and locally based. He provides an example of how the pricing varied widely when he was pricing his own house for sale and the idea that the low priced house would have moved more quickly and the over priced version would have languished and not achieved his price. Its all about access to information he indicates. I suggest that housing will not be treated as a pure commodity like coffee sugar or cocoa unless the buyers are pure investors. A large percentage of the population will need to be hand-held (self-included) in a sale. The broker does provide other anecdotal feedback, not all of it a sales pitch. The difference today versus a few years ago is the idea that more people are better informed before they speak with a broker for the first time. Its not a zero sum game.

However, I do think the days of the majority of eal estate brokerage firms being full service are numbered, and over time, different types of services will evolve. The full service service broker will remain and dominate but there will be more options to buyers and sellers. I would suggest that in a falling market, full service firms, as a percentage of market share, will rise as sellers will be less willing to experiment with unproven services, which have proliferated during the recent housing boom.

4 Comments

[The Real Deal has innovated the delivery of information about the New York real estate market in its magazine and online format to its readership. This is part of a series of podcasts on the state of the Manhattan housing market. -ed]

Jonathan Miller

Is the Manhattan housing market cooling or is it still hot? [TRD]

The podcast format allows me to summarize the results of the just completed 1st Quarter 2006 Prudential Douglas Elliman Manhattan market Overview without rattling off a bunch of statistics – those you can get from my report which will be posted on my web site shortly.

2 Comments

The 1Q 2006 Manhattan Market Overview that my appraisal firm, Miller Samuel, prepares for Prudential Douglas Elliman, was released today. I always think its interesting (actually, its fun) to see how the various media outlets (Big and Small Media, Blogs) respond to the exact same set of data and how the real estate brokerage companies who write alternative reports, frame their comments.

This list is in no particular order and excluded all the redundant articles (ie news feeds). I will keep adding to it through the week after the initial post.

Apartment Prices Up Again After a Slump in Manhattan [NYT]
Housing frenzy slows down[NYDN]
Wall Street bonuses lift Manhattan apartment prices [Reuters]
Reports: Luxury Housing Boom May Be Reaching Its Crest [NY Sun]
First Quarter Reports: Thousand Island [NYO The Real Estate]
Housing market still steady [NY Newsday]
City Apts. Defy U.S. Bubble Trouble [New York Post]
Condo boom boosts Manhattan real estate market [Inman News]
Manhattan housing market shows weakness [CNN/Money]
Manhattan Apartment Sales Cool Off [TheStreet.com]
Manhattan Apartment Prices Climb at Slowest Pace in Three Years [Bloomberg] IMMOBILIARE: SALE, SI SGONFIA OPPURE CROLLA [Wall Street Italia]
Manhattan housing market booms in first quarter [The Real Deal]
State o’ the Market Update: Through Thick and Thin, ‘Essentially Flat’ [Curbed]
Brokers say New York real estate market is cooling [Financial Times]
[Wall Street Bonuses Fuel Manhattan Real Estate Surge [DJ]](no link)
A game of telephone [Property Grunt]
Manhattan Market Up, Psychology Down in Q1 [Brownstoner]
Real Estate Rashomon [Walk-Through]

Here are a handful of radio and tv clips as well.

[Bloomberg TV]

[WNBC-TV]

[WPIX WB11]

[WABC-TV]

[WCBS Radio]

Tags: Brownstoner, Wall Street Bonus, New York Observer, Radio

6 Comments