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We published our report on the Miami sales market for 4Q 2012.   This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

• SALES SURGE – Sales were up sharply from a year ago, the highest fourth quarter in at least 6 years.
  
• FALLING INVENTORY – Listing inventory fell sharply. Low or negative equity holding back supply in addition to higher sales activity.
  
• SMALLER DISTRESSED SALES SHARE – 40.2% market share of distressed sales (REO+Short Sales) lowest share in 3 years.
  
• DEMAND DRIVERS – International buyers continued to play a key role in demand. Record low mortgage rates as well.
  
• HIGH END MARKET RISING WITH ENTIRE MARKET – Luxury market price trends rising consistent with gains in overall market.
  

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

…The market pace within Miami’s coastal communities continued to quicken in the fourth quarter. Distressed sale market share and listing inventory continued to fall, prices trended markedly higher, properties sold faster with less negotiability, and international buyers continued to play a key role in demand.

All price indicators posted large increases from year ago levels; median sales price jumped 27.3% to $210,000, average sales price surged 27.8% to $402,626, and average price per square foot increased 21.5% to $260. A portion of these substantial gains was attributable to the continued decline in market share of lower priced distressed sales, which fell to a 3-year low at 40.2%. However, the average sales price of non-distressed condo and single-family sales still jumped 16.6% above prior year levels…

You can build your own custom data tables on the Miami sales market – now updated with 4Q 12 data. I’ve also updated the charts on the Miami sales market.

The Elliman Report: 4Q 2012 Miami Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 4Q 2012 Miami Sales [Douglas Elliman]

Comments Off on [International Story] 4Q 2012 Miami Sales Report

[click to open report]

Our friends across the pond at Knight Frank just released their Q3 2012 Prime Global Cities Index which our firm and Douglas Elliman in NYC and Miami contribute content to.

Miami was #3 after Dubai although that placement was exagerated by the drop in distressed sales in south Florida (and they will rise going forward). Still, Miami has come a long way in 2 years. Manhattan showed decline but most of that was attributable to the shift in mix to entry level sales as mortgage rates continue to fall to new record lows. However it’s quite interesting to look at Manhattan as more mundane a market than the super-luxury segment would suggest. Further proof that the top end is not a proxy for everything else.

Cities such as Dubai, Miami, Nairobi and London are increasingly considered investment hubs for HNWIs in their wider regions. In the wake of the Arab Spring, Dubai has been seen as a relative safe haven for MENA buyers while Venezuelan and Brazilian investors have looked to Miami to limit their exposure to domestic political and economic volatility.

HNWI = High Net Worth Individual

Here’s KF’s top line overview:

-Fifteen of the 26 cities tracked by the Prime Global Cities Index (58%) recorded flat or positive price growth in the year to September, but over the last quarter 20 of the 26 cities (77%) have seen flat or positive growth – indicating an improving scenario.
-The index now stands 18.7% above its financial crisis low in Q2 2009 with Hong Kong, London and Beijing having been the strongest performers over this period, recording price growth of 52.9%, 45.4% and 39.5% respectively.
-Five cities recorded double-digit price growth in the year to September; Jakarta, Dubai, Miami, Nairobi and London – a city from each of the five key world regions.

Q3 2012 Prime Global Cities Index [Knight Frank]
The Elliman Report: 3Q 2012 Manhattan Sales [Prudential Douglas Elliman]
The Elliman Report: 3Q 2012 Miami Sales [Douglas Elliman]

Tags: Brazil, Prime Global Cities Index, London

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South Florida-based Douglas Elliman has translated the Miami market report I prepare to Spanish and Portuguese versions in order to better serve their clients, all in the name of increased market transparency.

[click to open reports]

Elliman Report: Miami Sales (Spanish) 3Q 2012 [Douglas Elliman]
Elliman Report: Miami Sales (Portuguese) 3Q 2012 [Douglas Elliman]
Elliman Report: Miami Sales (English) 3Q 2012 [Douglas Elliman]

Tags: Spanish, Portuguese

1 Comment

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed Miami, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the Magic City. And I’m simply here to take measurements.

Read my most recent 3CW column on @CurbedMiami:

…Yes, Miami actually has four housing seasons (no, you can’t use good-great-good-great). Last week we released the 3Q 2012 Miami sales report with Douglas Elliman covered here on Curbed Miami so I thought I’d do a 2-fer breaking out the five regions in our coverage of the coastal communities. I went with condos due to the low volume of single family sales in some of the submarkets…

[click to read column]

Curbed NY : Three Cents Worth Archive
Curbed DC : Three Cents Worth Archive
Curbed Miami : Three Cents Worth Archive

Tags: Three Cents Worth, Curbed Miami, 3CW

Comments Off on [Three Cents Worth Miami #213] Miami’s Seasonal Condo Price Trends

We published our report on the Miami sales market for 3Q 2012.   This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

• INVENTORY FALLING – Listing inventory fell 24.7% to 11,468 from 15,239 in the year ago quarter.
• FORECLOSURE SALES (excluding short sales) fell to an 18.6% market share from a recent high of 44.2% in first quarter of 2011.
• NON-DISTRESSED SALES surged year over year. Condos up 33.9% and Single Family up 17.1%.
• CONDO AND SINGLE FAMILY PRICES up 22.6% year-to-date as non-distressed sales now comprise 58.5% of all sales versus 46.6% last year.
• CASH IS STILL THE KEY TERM used for condo purchases. 72.8% of non-distressed and 76.3% of all distressed condo purchases were made with cash.
• DEMAND – International buyers continue to drive the market. Record low mortgage rates continue to bring buyers in to market but demand remains somewhat tempered by very tight lending conditions.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

…The Miami coastal communities experienced a sharp decline in listing inventory, a decline in distressed sales and rise in non-distressed sales, rising price pressure and continued demand from international buyers. All price indicators posted large gains as distressed sale market share activity continued to fall. Median sales price jumped 18.2% to $195,000 from $165,000 in the prior year quarter. Average sales price and average price per square foot saw similar year-over-year gains of 16.7% and 18.2%. The median sales price year-to date was $190,000 and increased at a similar rate of 22.6%. Distressed sales market share fell to 41.3% from 53.3% over the same period last year helping drive overall prices higher due to their lower price levels…

You can build your own custom data tables on the Miami sales market – now updated with 3Q 12 data. I’ll have the latest charts on the Miami sales market uploaded soon.

The Elliman Report: 3Q 2012 Miami Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 3Q 2012 Miami Sales [Prudential Douglas Elliman]

1 Comment

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed Miami, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the Magic City. And I’m simply here to take measurements.

Read this week’s 3CW column on @CurbedMiami:

…I’ve been on a “rotating gif” tear lately so I took a look at the ebb and flow of Miami sales and price trends since the mid-decade peak and the current market resurgence. I think people get hung up on the idea that prices represent the health of a housing market when they really are a vice. As prices continued to surge during the boom, sales fell sharply and most consumers looked the other way. I contend a recovery is all about sales activity because it leads prices – and Miami is seeing more sales activity these days…

[click to read column]

Curbed NY : Three Cents Worth Archive
Curbed DC : Three Cents Worth Archive
Curbed Miami : Three Cents Worth Archive

Tags: Three Cents Worth, Curbed Miami, 3CW

Comments Off on [Three Cents Worth Miami #209] The Miami Vice Of Sales & Price

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed Miami, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the Magic City. And I’m simply here to take measurements.

Read this week’s 3CW column on @CurbedMiami:

…The practice of lumping Miami into one big bowl of lukewarm housing gazpacho for the past decade gives me an upset stomach. Since I began reporting on the Miami market for Douglas Elliman a while back (and have since expanded coverage to Boca Raton, Fort Lauderdale and Palm Beach), I’ve been obsessed with Miami’s split personality – distressed (foreclosure + short sales) versus non-distressed markets. While they’re not mutually exclusive markets, they do have different price points and trends. To make up to Curbed Miami for just sitting on the beach I made three charts for this week’s 3CW to explore the two different markets of Miami real estate…

[click to read column]

Curbed NY : Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC : Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami : Three Cents Worth Archive

Tags: 3CW, Curbed Miami, Three Cents Worth

3 Comments

South Florida-based Douglas Elliman has translated the Miami market report I prepare to Spanish and Portuguese versions in order to better serve their clients, all in the name of increased market transparency. Love it.

[click to open reports]

Elliman Report: Miami Sales (Spanish) 2Q 2012 [Douglas Elliman]
Elliman Report: Miami Sales (Portuguese) 2Q 2012 [Douglas Elliman]
Elliman Report: Miami Sales (English) 2Q 2012 [Douglas Elliman]

1 Comment

We published our report on the Miami sales market for 2Q 2012 this morning.   This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

-Distressed sale market share has fallen to 40.6% of all sales from 2/3 in early 2011. Fewer lower priced distressed sales are skewing prices higher.
-Non-distressed sales showed stable to modest price appreciation.
-Listing inventory continues to fall sharply.
-Days on market had second fastest rate in more than six years.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

…The housing market in Miami’s coastal communities continued to show increases in nondistressed sales, falling inventory, and demand from foreign buyers from Europe and South America.

The median sales price jumped 20.9% to $196,500 from $162,500 in the prior year quarter. The $399,440 average sales price and $257 price per square foot both showed the same pattern, with respective gains of 17.7% and 14.2% over the same period. The 28.5% year-over-year gain in median condo prices largely outpaced the 4.4% gain in median single-family home prices. This was largely due to the drop in lower priced distressed sales activity over the past year, related to the “robo-signing” scandal at the end of 2010. In addition to the court-related foreclosure backlog, servicers slowed the volume of property entering the market during most of 2011 and early 2012. Condo sales saw more of a decline related to this matter; distressed condo sales fell 31.9% over the past year, while distressed single family sales fell only 11.7% over the same period…

You can build your own custom data tables on the Miami sales market – now updated with 2Q 12 data. I’ll have the latest charts on the Miami sales market uploaded this evening.

The Elliman Report: 2Q 2012 Miami Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 2Q 2012 Miami Sales [Prudential Douglas Elliman]

Tags: Europe

Comments Off on [Not Feeling Distressed] 2Q 2012 Miami Sales Report

[click to play video]

Reporter Robert Frank spoke with me and pens a good piece on the Miami phenomenon and provides an interview for Street Signs. It’s worth a look.

No, not in the same way we saw one formed in the middle of the last decade.

In other words, Miami’s boom is not a broad-based market recovery driven by local families needing a home. It’s being fueled by a tiny top slice of super-rich overseas buyer looking for the latest hot investment.

They’re not buying their first home, or even their second or third. They’re investing in a stock with an ocean view.

25% of foreign investment of US real estate in Florida, most of it is in Miami.

“Most patient” capital

“Very discretionary”

Is the Miami Mansion Boom Becoming a Bubble? [CNBC]
Is there a bubble in Miami? [CNBC Street Signs]

Tags: Robert Frank, CNBC

Comments Off on CNBC Street Signs – Is Miami Forming a New Housing Bubble?

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed Miami, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the Magic City. And I’m simply here to take measurements.

Read my most recent 3CW post on @CurbedMiami :

There has been a lot of attention paid to Miami’s high end market and the idea that foreign buyers are turning the market around. All the coverage has zeroed in on sales and price trends. I thought I’d present what some of the other metrics are saying.

Two of the most neglected stats in Miami’s housing market discussion have been days on market and listing discount. My data included all distressed and non-distressed properties in the market report we prepare for Douglas Elliman. I prefer to use days on market that measures from the last time the list price was changed to the contract date. In my view this is a better reflection of when a property actually (not technically) enters the market. I apply the same reasoning to the listing discount, the percentage difference between the list price at time of contract and the contract price. The closer the spread is, the less negotiable the transaction becomes so it really matters when the property “actually” enters the market. [read further]

[click to expand]

Curbed NY Three Cents Worth Archive
Curbed DC Three Cents Worth Archive
Curbed Miami Three Cents Worth Archive

Tags: Three Cents Worth, Curbed Miami, 3CW

Comments Off on [Three Cents Worth Miami #196] Miami Sees Wave of Tightening Negotiations