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Lies, Damn Lies, And Government Statistics: Part II

by Jonathan Miller | @jonathanmiller
August 21, 2005 | 12:07 pm | |
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New York Times Economy Federal Reserve Bank Adventures in Media & Marketing

Go to the prequel of this post [Lies, Damn Lies, And Government Statistics: Part I](http://matrix.millersamuel.com/?p=65)

And here is another post of the same topic concerning PPI [Well, Maybe The Inflation Threat Is Not That Bad After All?](http://matrix.millersamuel.com/?p=58)

…After I finished my post on this topic last Friday, I came across yet another significant statistic that we should be uncomfortable with. [Daniel Gross wrote an excellent article on productivity ](http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/21/business/yourmoney/21view.html?pagewanted=print) stats that suggests that the stats have even confounded Greenspan.

productivity
Source: New York Times


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Going Dutch

by Jonathan Miller | @jonathanmiller
August 21, 2005 | 11:21 am | |
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New York Times Boom Bubble Bust Economy Federal Reserve Bank Adventures in Media & Marketing

bubble

In today’s New York Times article, [Professor Robert Shiller](http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/) [voices his concern about a real estate bubble](). Professor Schiller is well-known for predicting the last stock market correction and possibly influencing Fed Chairman Greenspan’s use of the phrase irrational exuberance, the [name of Professor Shiller’s subsequent book](http://matrix.millersamuel.com/?p=9).

According to the article, origins of a housing bubble began with the Dutch about 400 years ago. Recently, a Dutch economist, [Piet M. A. Eichholtz, a professor of Maastricht University](http://www.fdewb.unimaas.nl/finance/faculty/eichholtz/home.htm), used Mr. Schiller’s method for converting actual sales into an index and found that the housing market saw a series of booms and busts. They found that in the long run, there was no long term trend and that prices match gains in personal income.

Mr. Shiller has a Norwegian housing index and a US Index that shows a similar pattern and is concerned that the recent run-up shows we are in a bubble.

shillerindex
Source: New York Times


To his critics, he says that housing charts generally go back to the 1970’s and stock market charts go back almost a century.


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What Else is New? Existing-Home Sales Hit Records, But…

by Jonathan Miller | @jonathanmiller
August 17, 2005 | 8:40 am | |
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New York Times Wall Street Journal Boom Bubble Bust Economy

The recurring theme across the US is an increase in the number of sales and sales prices. NAR’s existing home sale report saw a record pace in the number of sales. West Virginia drew top honors with the largest gain in sales activity over the past year.

In addition to volume, housing prices have been rising nationwide. [Condos seem to be leading the way in Massachusetts [Note: Subscription]](http://www.masslive.com/business/republican/index.ssf?/base/business-0/1124178866282500.xml&coll=1).

Around the country housing prices and exist-home sales are setting records or near record levels but the rate of appreciation seems to be easing across the country.

Regional articles: [Wisconsin](http://www.madison.com/wsj/home/biz/index.php?ntid=50766&ntpid=1)
[Minneapolis](http://twincities.bizjournals.com/twincities/stories/2005/08/15/daily17.html?jst=b_ln_hl)
[California](http://www.rednova.com/news/general/209083/southern_california_home_prices_rise_to_new_record/)
[Southern California](http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-homes16aug16,0,762231.story?coll=la-home-business)
[Wisconsin](http://www.jsonline.com/homes/buy/aug05/348904.asp)
[Upstate New York](http://www.uticaod.com/archive/2005/08/17/news/7168.html)


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From Rubble to Rubles

by Jonathan Miller | @jonathanmiller
August 16, 2005 | 10:07 pm | |
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New York Times Boom Bubble Bust International

There is a housing boom in Russia where prices in an exclusive area of Moscow known as Ostozhenka, housing exceeds $10,000 per square meter. That translates to just under $1,000 per square foot. After New York, Moscow has the highest concentration of billionaires.

[Mortgage financing is a relatively new concept in Russia](http://www.abc.net.au/correspondents/content/2005/s1431473.htm) and is helping fuel the boom. [Lack of supply](http://www.russiajournal.com/news/cnews-article.shtml?nd=47465), is also fueling the boom, but as little as 6 months ago, the government was saying there was no housing boom.

Like Russia, [China](http://english.people.com.cn/200503/08/eng20050308_176022.html) and [Korea](http://times.hankooki.com/lpage/biz/200508/kt2005081520195311880.htm) are seeing lack of supply and ready credit is very similar to the US situation. The housing boom pattern seems to be similar around the globe, however, the disparity between the entry and luxury segments as well as investor speculation in China, Korea and Russia are at a higher level than seen in the US.


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Media Coverage Of The Words “Real Estate Bubble”

by Jonathan Miller | @jonathanmiller
August 8, 2005 | 12:09 pm | |
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New York Times Boom Bubble Bust Language, Jargon & Quotes Adventures in Media & Marketing

Media coverage of the words “real estate bubble” was analyzed by our public relations firm, Publitas. The results were very interesting.

Admit it. Many of us now groan when we read another story of the housing bubble or crash (whether its true or not). The story cycle has run its course.

This is a very similar methodology employed by Robert Shiller of Yale as covered in the New York Times.

However, the Shiller analysis uses a multi-year Lexis-Nexis news search seems biased toward the later years. Major news organizations have a much greater presence on the web now than they did, say 8 or 9 years ago. The absolute number of hits should be far less in earlier years. His analysis should have been done as a percentage of total news stories.

Here’s the problem…

People are now using the logic that since information on the housing bubble has been pumped out into the mainstream ad nauseam, the odds of a market correction is now somehow less since more people are informed. Matrix thinks this is very misguided and relies on “mob mentality” too much. Safety in numbers is more of a distraction. Now that the market has made it through the hailstorm of coverage, we can start really looking at what is going on in real estate.


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Jonathan Miller is President and CEO of Miller Samuel Inc., a real estate appraisal and consulting firm he co-founded in 1986. He is a state-certified real estate appraiser in New York and Connecticut, performing court testimony as an expert witness in various local, state and federal courts. He holds the Counselors of Real Estate (CRE) and Certified Relocation Professional (CRP) designations. He is an Appraiser “A” Member of the Real Estate Board of New York and a member of Relocation Appraisers and Consultants, Inc.
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