Housing Is No Vacation: Stavanger Edition
Like last week, I’m on vacation, having just left Oslo, Norway, and headed to Stavanger, Norway after great visits to Germany and Denmark. Please again excuse this brief edition of Housing Notes.
To regain my focus on critical issues at hand mid-vacation, it is essential to note that Cauliflower is having a moment.
Did you miss last week’s Housing Notes? May 5 – Housing Is No Vacation: GDansk Edition
But I digress…
The Compass Chronicles: Q1-2023 Edition
They lost another $150 million this quarter, an improvement in their ongoing cash hemorrhage and inability to profit during the biggest housing boom of the modern era. Yet, some analysts are calling them a buy. Executives claim to be cash flow positive by June. What do I know?
Compass loses $150M, beats expectations [The Real Deal]
The Opposite Of Aspirational Pricing
You have to love your home and the adjacent persistent construction noise next door. That’s how.
This house in Australia has continually rejected offers for purchase, most recently a $50 million dollar offer, per 7News: pic.twitter.com/jCtxOMTCn6— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) May 7, 2023
26 Empire State Buildings For Context On Manhattan Empty Office Space
There was a spectacular New York Times opinion piece this week: 26 Empire State Buildings Could Fit Into New York’s Empty Office Space. That’s a Sign.
New York is undergoing a metamorphosis from a city dedicated to productivity to one built around pleasure.
I love the closing quote:
As we fight segregation in all its forms, dense cities can bridge our divisions. As we struggle with loneliness, an irresistibly vital street life could drag a generation of people off their phones and back toward one another.
We Have Way Too Much Parking
Henry Grabar’s ‘Paved Paradise‘ is a must-read tome on the scourge of too much parking. His publisher reached out to ask if I would review it and I enthusiastically agreed because I’ve been a long time fan of his work for Slate. In recent years, it has become more widely understood that too much parking chokes off downtown business districts. Henry explains the thinking behind this in an easy to access style. Free parking is the scourge of cities yet long expected by drivers.
‘Paved Paradise’ explains why parking is both a local nuisance and a global blight [LA Times]
My favorite housing market/economic charts of the week made by others
Here is the update chart showing with the April data pic.twitter.com/wgZh3UnjCH— Barry Ritholtz (@ritholtz) May 11, 2023
Stunning graphic in today's WSJ article on how home sellers have ghosted the market this spring, showing how low the mortgage rates being paid on most outstanding mortgages are right now.— Jeff Tucker (@Jeff_Tucke) May 10, 2023
By my count that's 15 million mortgages below 3%, almost as many as there are over 5%!
🇺🇸Make no mistake #inflation is cooling & if anything the April CPI report indicates a broad disinflationary process as the main culprit for some of the apparent stickiness was a 4.4% m/m surge in used car prices. pic.twitter.com/WPrJ2wrr9s— Gregory Daco (@GregDaco) May 10, 2023
Air fares are rising at more than twice the rate of inflation. Average ticket prices on more than 600 of the world’s most popular routes rose at an annual rate of 27.4% in February, marking the 15th consecutive month of double-digit growth. https://t.co/B9XsV97ynt pic.twitter.com/gxQkFrH7sg— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) May 7, 2023
Apollo’s Torsten Slok‘s amazingly clear charts.
Kastle card swipe data charts
Remember that Kastle charts are overstating occupancy* because their pre-pandemic occupancy benchmark was 100% which is simply incorrect (*measures card swipe activity as a proxy for occupancy).
My May 19th Testimony At ASC Hearing
There’s a lot to cover but I’m on vacation! I’ll begin to catch up next week after I testify a week from today at the ASC Appraisal Bias Hearing.
Phil Crawford’s Voice of Appraisal Podcast: Mark Calabria
Phil interviews Mark Calabria, former director of FHFA. Wow.
OFT (One Final Thought)
At age 17, I would have said it would be a 1968 Dodge Charger…
Brilliant Idea #1
If you need something rock solid in your life (particularly on Friday afternoons at 2 p.m.) and someone forwarded this to you, , or you think you already subscribed, sign up here for these weekly Housing Notes. And be sure to share with a friend or colleague if you enjoy them because:
- They’ll be more about cauliflower;
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- And I’ll take another vacation.
Brilliant Idea #2
You’re clearly full of insights and ideas as a reader of these Housing Notes. Please share them with me early and often. I appreciate every email I receive, as it helps me craft the following week’s Housing Note.
See you next week!
Reads, Listens and Visuals I Enjoyed
- Housing and rent prices with Paul Willen [Boston Fed]
- Everyone fled big cities during the pandemic. So why is your rent still so damn high? [Business Insider]
- Q1 2023 – Manhattan Office Building Visitation Report [REBNY]
- Compass loses $150M, beats expectations [The Real Deal]
- Opinion | 26 Empire State Buildings Could Fit Into New York’s Empty Office Space. That’s a Sign. [NY Times]
- 'Paved Paradise' explains why parking is both a local nuisance and a global blight [LA Times]
- How Do People Released From Prison Find Housing? [NY Times]
- It’s Never Too Late for Banks to Hedge [Bloomberg]
- Luxury Home Sales Nosedive in LA After New Tax Takes Effect [The Real Deal]
- Regulated Rents Are Going Down in New York City. Really. [Bloomberg]
My New Content, Research and Mentions
- Hamptons home sales fall to 14-year low in first quarter [Newsday]
- Long Island Median Home Price Drops Despite Tight Market [The Real Deal]
- New York City-Area Rents Surge by Most in Nearly Two Decades [Bloomberg]
- Manhattan Penthouse Tied to the Rothschild Family Lists for $30 Million [Mansion Global]
- Manhattan Penthouse Tied To the Rothschild Family Lists for $30 Million [Wall Street Journal]
Recently Published Elliman Market Reports
- Elliman Report: San Diego County Sales 1Q 2023 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Orange County Sales 1Q 2023 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Malibu + Malibu Beach Sales 1Q 2023 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Los Angeles Sales 1Q 2023 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: North Fork Sales 1Q 2023 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Hamptons Sales 1Q 2023 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Long Island Sales 1Q 2023 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: St. Petersburg Sales 1Q 2023 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Miami Coastal Mainland Sales 1Q 2023 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Miami Beach + Barrier Islands Sales 1Q 2023 [Miller Samuel]
Appraisal Related Reads
- Phil Welcomes Mark Calabria! [Voice of Appraisal]
- FHFA Announces Rescission of Enterprise Upfront Fees Based on Debt-To-Income (DTI) Ratio [Federal Housing Finance Agency]
- Real estate appraisals for divorce, estate settlement, loans, property tax appeal, pre-listing and more. We cover Sacramento, Placer and Yolo County. We're professional, courteous and timely. [Sacramento Appraisal Blog]