I try my best to keep an even keel on what I observe about our regional housing market – the benefit is it enables me to be criticized by more people as too negative and too positive. 😉
It’s been quite a fascinating year to observe how so many became so wedded to their original beliefs despite how much the world is changing around them.
This applies to TV pundits.
Here’s a few Peter Schiff clips that many of you may have seen, but its worth refreshing your memory. What is particularly interesting in this clip is the lack of content within any responses given by all those who disagreed with Schiff. Just disbelief, distrespect and misinterpretation of historical trends.
…such as Ben Stein’s description of the subprime problem as tiny, Arthur Laffer’s penny bet and and Mike Norman’s disrespectful tone and lack of understanding about bank underwriting and housing despite being a business radio host (his show was cancelled in 2009 and he blamed “Schiff and cockroaches who believed Schiff”) stand in stark contrast to reality.
While on this topic, I continue to have regular exchanges of emails with some real estate agents who suggest that Manhattan, Fire Island, The Hamptons, etc. (high end enclaves) are basically immune from the world’s economic problems because “They are an island, can’t be expanded, there’s nowhere like them, etc.”
Here’s a recent exchange:
>As a real estate broker, I know what I see. I see Manhattan being an island, indeed. Once value was perceived, people began buying. I haven’t been happy about some of your negative statements, not because I am in denial but because I truly see a different reality.
This agent later told me in the exchange that their spouse was laid off and times are tough for everyone (but not their customers?).
Of course there are many agents who have adapted and have been successful in this market. It’s not about being more positive, it’s about helping customers navigate it and finding opportunity.
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Good example of offering opinions nobody wants to agree with whether they know what they are talking about or not. Laffer was laughably off the mark and nasty too. Was he down to his last penny already? Maybe attitude goes with ignorance. Schiff was a gentleman throughout. You ought to interview him. He stays on topic, plays his hand with real info and doesn’t go into personal attacks. Old fashioned, sorta.
Hard to imagine why some of those guys are admired for their financial acumen. Ben Stein was right though. Sub-prime was tiny, and now we all know this was never about sub-prime or even real housing prices. If this thing had been limited to sub-prime or even to mortgages the economy could have handled it.
What happened is something like Wall Street investing in egg rolls with derivatives. But the guys making the egg rolls saw them coming, and took the jobs with the debt. Our jobs, savings and dollars are in China, and I’m telling my kids it’s a good idea to learn Chinese so they can converse with the new CEOs if they can find a job.
If Peter Schiff is right, and it looks like he is, the next event is going to be awareness dialog that we stalled out in the middle of the race, it ended several years ago and we lost. To some extent, I think Obama is trying to tell us the score, but his comments are too carefully crafted to create understanding. Sure kicks up the critics though. I have to wonder if the economic terrorists think they can get even more before they leave us discarded and broke.
And Jonathan, if you want to become imbalanced and tic everybody off, go ahead. The new trick is going to be telling everybody where to hide till its over.
If history is any guide, the hiding place for most of us will still be housing, unless of course we’re going to be homeless or socialists in which case you don’t have to buy stuff.
If capitalism driven purely by greed survives, the prices cannot be insane, like they still are. Prices will again be tied to jobs and income as soon as China and India begin outsourcing.