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Going Dutch

August 21, 2005 | Adventures in Media & Marketing, Boom Bubble Bust, Economy, Federal Reserve Bank, New York Times |

bubble

In today’s New York Times article, [Professor Robert Shiller](http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/) [voices his concern about a real estate bubble](). Professor Schiller is well-known for predicting the last stock market correction and possibly influencing Fed Chairman Greenspan’s use of the phrase _irrational exuberance_, the [name of Professor Shiller’s subsequent book](http://matrix.millersamuelv2.wpenginepowered.com/?p=9).

According to the article, origins of a housing bubble began with the Dutch about 400 years ago. Recently, a Dutch economist, [Piet M. A. Eichholtz, a professor of Maastricht University](http://www.fdewb.unimaas.nl/finance/faculty/eichholtz/home.htm), used Mr. Schiller’s method for converting actual sales into an index and found that the housing market saw a series of booms and busts. They found that in the long run, there was no long term trend and that prices match gains in personal income.

Mr. Shiller has a Norwegian housing index and a US Index that shows a similar pattern and is concerned that the recent run-up shows we are in a bubble.

shillerindex
Source: New York Times

To his critics, he says that housing charts generally go back to the 1970’s and stock market charts go back almost a century.


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