Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics as a guest on Bloomberg Television points out some key issues relating to housing and the economy. It’s a great quick overview on how housing fits into the economic recovery equation. So much for a “soft handoff,” the idea of the housing moving from dependency on low mortgage rate to thriving on a stronger economy. The ideas being projected here are that the economy may improve without housing’s help.
“It is not quite as important as the fed seems to think.”
“I sometimes say the fed is almost as obsessed with housing as the labor market.”
“I’m not convinced it is absolutely essential that housing keeps charging upwards in order for the rest of the economy to grow.”
“It’s a relatively small share of gdp now in terms of housing construction and even when you add in the retail stuff related to housing.”
“It is important to sentiment.”
“They were ready to dismiss it as something temporary and clearly the worries are more deeper.”
“Mortgage rates, if they rise further as the economy picks up, housing will be under further pressure.”
“It is a paradox that the stronger the rest of the economy gets and the more worried the market gets about the fed raising rates, the higher 10 year yields will go and mortgage rates and potentially the housing market will get weaker.”
“This is a three or four year process to get back to normal.”
“Housing unfortunately will be a necessary casualty.”
“My guess is that that’s the way the fed’s thinking evolves great if we see the economy strengthening brother that housing is weakening, i think they will have to live with that and stand up and say it’s a price we have to pay in order to get the rest of the economy moving.”