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Inventory crisis expected to last through 2015

…If the economy continues to improve, more resales will return to the market in a “slow-motion scenario over the next two to three years,” said Jonathan Miller, president of the appraisal firm Miller Samuel….

…“The new supply coming on is targeting the luxury market,” Miller said….

…As a result, the “pipeline [for new projects] ran dry by 2009,” Miller said….

…“You have a lot of people [who] can’t trade up or make a lateral move because they no longer qualify for credit,” Miller said….

…As a result of these factors, inventory is at records lows: In mid-September, there were 4,342 Manhattan homes on the market, down 25.7 percent from 5,847 in the third quarter of 2012, according to data from Miller Samuel….

…The absorption rate — the amount of time it would take for all units on the market to sell at the current pace — in Manhattan in the second quarter was just 4.6 months, Miller Samuel’s data shows, down 41.8 percent year-over-year from 7.9 months….

…In the second quarter of this year, the median sales price for a new development unit in Manhattan was $1.4 million, according to Miller Samuel, while the median sales price for all Manhattan apartments was substantially lower, at $865,000….

…“Land prices can’t go up at an astronomical rate forever,” Miller said….

…But, Miller noted, the Manhattan market is currently early on in that cycle, and it will take some time before the demand for luxury product cools….

…In order for more resales to hit the market, meanwhile, the economy needs to continue improving, Miller said….

…But another crucial factor is the availability of mortgages for buyers, Miller said….

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