The Douglas Elliman Report: Manhattan Sales 2Q 2012 — Prepared by Miller Samuel

The Douglas Elliman Report: Manhattan Sales 2Q 2012 reveals that Manhattan housing market remained stable during the second quarter, with a surge in entry-level sales and the luxury market at a high level of pricing. The listing inventory fell 13.5% from 2011 and co-ops saw more activity than condominiums this quarter, largely due to a decline in supply. Luxury market prices continued to fluctuate each quarter, but at a high level, and the new development market share held steady at 16.4%.

“It was a busy spring season for the Manhattan real estate market,” said Dottie Herman, President and CEO of Prudential Douglas Elliman. “We saw stable prices and a significant increase in sales as first time homebuyers responded to record-low mortgage rates and rising rental prices. The higher end of the market continued to set records, as international buyers sought out Manhattan as a safe haven from economic volatility around the globe.”

“This was the third consecutive quarter with the market share of entry-level sales above 50% of all Manhattan sales,” said Jonathan Miller, President/CEO of Miller Samuel, the firm that prepared the report. “While the shortage of inventory across all property types and tight credit remained the two major challenges to the market, we saw that the sharp drop in mortgage rates and rising rents kept the market share high, and that foreign buyers continued to create demand at elevated levels.”

“Manhattan remains one of the best housing markets worldwide,” added Herman. “And as our regional economy continues to improve, we anticipate similar trends to continue over the next quarter.”

Manhattan Market Highlights

Overview

-Housing prices continues to remain stable – 2 of 3 price indicators show small year-over-year declines due to surge in entry-level sales.

-3rd consecutive quarter with the market share of entry-level (studio and 1-bedroom) sales above 50% of all Manhattan sales. Sharp drop in mortgage rates and rising rents keep market share high.

-Listing inventory fell 13.5% from last year – low inventory will be one of the biggest challenges facing the housing market over the next year.

-Overall sales the same as last year but co-ops and condos behaved very differently. Coops up 10.9% (jump in entry-level sales, first time buyers. Condos slipped 11.8% largely due to decline in supply. Condo inventory down 36% in two years. The number of sales is not keeping pace with the decline in inventory, partially because some sellers don’t have enough equity to trade up, even if their mortgage is not underwater.

-Luxury market prices continue to bounce up and down each quarter but remain at a high level. Luxury inventory is down 8.2% year over year.

-New development market share holds steady at 16.4% – remaining within the 14% to 21% range for since late 2009.

Key Trend Metrics

-Median sales price was $829,000, down 2.5% from $850,000 in the prior year quarter.

-Price per square foot was $1,065, essentially unchanged from the prior year quarter.

-Average sales price was $1,408,878, down 3.2% from $1,455,098 in the prior year quarter.

-Number of sales totaled 2,647 essentially unchanged from the prior year quarter.
Pending price index slipped 2.5% to 98.92 from the same period last year.
Pending sales index increased 5.2% to 162.71 from the same period last year.

-Listing inventory was 6,981 down 13.5% from the prior year quarter.

-Days on market was 165 days, up 21.3% from this time last year.

-Listing discount was 5.1%, up from 3.5% in the same period last year.

Co-op Market

-Median sales price this quarter was $665,000, down 5% from $700,000 in the prior year quarter.

-Number of sales increased 10.9% to 1,515 units, from 1,366 units in the same period last year.

Condo Market

-Median sales price this quarter was $1,100,000, up 2.8% from $1,070,000 in the prior year quarter.

-Number of sales declined 11.8% to 1,132 units, from 1,284 units in the same period last year.

Loft Market (co-op and condo sales)

-Median sales price this quarter was $1,749,000, up 4.4% from $1,675,000 in the prior year quarter.

-Number of sales jumped 23.8% to 255 units, from 206 units in the same period last year.

Luxury Market (upper 10% of all co-op and condo sales)

-Median sales price this quarter was $4,075,000, down 10.4% from $4,550,000 in the prior year quarter.

-The lower limit of the top ten percent of all sales this quarter was $2,827,500.
New Development Market (co-op and condo sales)

-Price per square foot was $1,092, down 5.9% from the prior year quarter result of $1,160.

-Number of sales declined 25% to 433 units, from 577 in the same period last year.

-Active inventory declined 20% to 1,300 units from 1,626 units in the prior year quarter.

-New development accounted for 16.4% of all sales this quarter.

About Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate

Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate is New York’s largest residential brokerage, with over 60 offices in New York City, Long Island, the Hamptons and Westchester/Putnam, more than 3,800 real estate agents and a network of national and international affiliates. They are exclusive strategic partners with London-based Knight Frank LLP for residential business in all of their New York markets. Prudential Douglas Elliman ranked in the top four of all real estate companies in the nation in 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2010. The company also controls a portfolio of real estate services, including Manhattan’s largest residential property manager, Douglas Elliman Property Management, as well as PDE Title and DE Capital Mortgage. For more information on Prudential Douglas Elliman as well as expert commentary on emerging trends in the real estate industry, visit the Prudential Douglas Elliman site at http://www.elliman.com

About Miller Samuel

Miller Samuel is an appraisal and consulting services firm covering the New York City metropolitan area. Miller Samuel provided property valuations of more than $5,000,000,000 in the past year. The company’s clients include domestic and international financial institutions, law firms, consulting firms, developers, employee relocation companies, co-op and condo boards, managing agents, individuals and government agencies. The firm has authored this report series since 1994. For more information visit https://millersamuel.com.