David Leonhardt’s article today about Online Betters was quite good. Using the odds fleshed out by online traders, you could have:

* Predicted the winner presidential election for all 50 states in 2004
* 85% of recent Emmy winners
* The current American Idol winner

The NYT article says that online gamblers see no sign of a housing bubble anytime soon…

poker

Not sure I want to rely on this as a way to get comfortable with the real estate economy but it is tempting. [One could argue that the recent poker craze](http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/droke/2005/0718b.html), is a sign of speculative environment.

Then we get into predicting presidential elections..[2004 Predicting a Bush Victory](http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/15/magazine/15QUESTIONS.html?ei=5070&en=3e851e8134e2bf4a&ex=1124856000&pagewanted=print&position=) [[The Formula]](http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/vote2004/computev.htm)

Using the Superbowl…

footballillustrated
This brings to mind Superbowl predictors of presidential elections called _The Superbowl Effect_:

[2000 It’s Redskins vs. the markets in the presidential race](http://money.cnn.com/2000/11/01/investing/markets_election/)[1996 NFL Index Predicts Super Year For Stocks](http://www.fool.com/Fribble/1996/Fribble960112.htm)


One Comment

  1. Dave Platter August 23, 2005 at 4:35 pm

    Interesting. I wonder, do the online gamblers know something we don’t? Or are the odds in an online gambling market more like the results of a national survey, where there are enough participants voicing their personal forecasts for the online betting markets to give an accurate picture of overall public opinion.

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