Extreme Wheelbarrowing Houses Our Market View

I left my Housing Notes readers with an extensive look at Extreme Ironing last month. Now that I’m back from a ridiculously long vacation, I wanted to show you that my time away from work hasn’t changed me. Hence, I’m stepping into some extreme wheelbarrowing.


Next week I’ll be back to speed with more content and a bunch of our own housing market research but for now…

But I digress…

Calculated Risk: The Seller’s Strike

In most housing downturns, as sales decline from an external event like rising mortgage rates, listing inventory rises relative to previous periods. Yet in this cycle, new listing inventory growth is cooling.

The must-read Calculated Risk site calls this a Seller’s Strike.

The thinking is that would-be sellers are reluctant to sell because they will see a much higher mortgage payment. Afterall, 30-year mortgage rates were 3.1% at the end of December and are nearly double that now.

The Real Deal on Instagram – Real Estate Holdings of the Royal Family


New in the Real Estate Lexicon: “Under Demolished”

Getting Graphic


My favorite charts of the week of our own making

My favorite charts of the week made by others

Len Kiefer‘s Chart Handiwork

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If only I had a crystal ball: Preparing for the market shift
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Thursday 9-22-22 Noon ET ZOOM HGAR

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Thursday 9-29-22 9:00am ET IN PERSON AREAA

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(For earlier appraisal industry commentary, visit my old clunky REIC site.)

American Banker Exposes The Deep Structural Problems Within TAF

Last spring, a reporter at American Banker I know reached out to me based on my running TAF commentary in these Housing Notes. I was interviewed for the piece and made suggestions on who to speak with and the problems that TAF has perpetuated. The author did a terrific job with this complex topic.

Here’s the AB piece with the accompanying podcast:

Home appraisers are fed up with how their industry is run [American Banker]

The podcast intro was led by my firm’s chief appraiser, so the author could get a sense of what an appraisal represents. My friend and appraiser, Lori Noble of West Virginia, was featured in both the article and the podcast on the topic of the West Virginia Board’s self-dealing, led by Dean Dawson. Here it is:


There will be lots of new insights on the TAF front coming over the next several weeks.

AI Leadership Needs To Take A Refresher Ethics Course On Conflict Of Interest

Former AI president Rodman Schley is a really nice guy who led the rekindled efforts on the topic of diversity for AI – probably hoping to establish his institutional legacy on those achievements.

However, I was really disappointed to learn Rodman had AI CEO Jim Amorin as an advisor on his newly established EVOLVEX CAPITAL venture. Members that have shared this with me are PISSED at the breach of ethics here. Why? Rodman is the chairman of the AI Compensation committee who specifically determines Jim Amorin’s compensation and bonuses. This is highly unethical but it does fall within the normalized corrupt culture that FOJ’s live by to get choice teaching assignments and chairmanships.

Oh, and the CFO of AI is also on the board of Evolvex.

AI’s Board of Directors is supposed to be in charge and the employees such as JA report to the board. Yet as everyone knows the BOD reports to JA. You gotta admit, JA knows how to make an organization his monarchy.

You can’t make this stuff up.


HUD Is Making An Extensive Investigation Of TAF Right Now

Yup.

HUD probe into valuation bias focuses on Appraisal Foundation [American Banker]

This is the heart of TAF’s problem:

As a private entity, the foundation is not subject to the federal Administrative Procedure Act, which requires a lengthy and deliberate process for publicly vetting potential new regulations. Instead, it uses an “exposure draft” process that some in the profession feel draws insufficient input from outside groups, including those focused on issues of race and discrimination.

As I’ve said many times, only until recently did TAF use outside counsel to review their policies but still don’t rely on policy experts. This has caused TAF to retract and restate many policies over and over again. Plus it helps substantiate the two year update cycle as a necessary option for this incompetence – the result is wasteful expense and damage to the appraisal industry for the confusion they perpetually cause.

Law Firm That Represents TAF, Also Represents Plaintiffs Suing Appraiser For Fair Housing Violations

I find it odd, but consistent that the law firm TAF uses, RELMAN COLFAX, PLLC, to which president Dave Bunton repeatedly refers to as “preeminent” (I’ll assume they are) is representing a client suing an appraiser. I am not speaking to the merits of the case here.

Its just that the TAF hiring of law firm is consistent with TAF having Mountain State Justice, a legal advocacy group that sues appraisers for a living using appraiser board members of the West Virgina RE Appraiser Board such as Dean Dawson, was named to TAF’s BOT! Thankfully, their director was not brought back for a second term on BOT.

Here is the affidavit for the case in UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT, DISTRICT OF MARYLAND:

Nathan Connolly and Shani Mott, Plaintiffs,
v.
Shane Lanham, 20/20 Valuations, LLC, and loanDepot.com, LLC, Defendants.

Defendants Lanham and 20/20 Valuations discriminated against Plaintiffs by dramatically undervaluing their home in an appraisal because of Plaintiffs’ race and their home’s location adjacent to a Black census block, notwithstanding that it is also located within Homeland, an affluent, mostly white neighborhood. Defendant loanDepot discriminated against Plaintiffs by knowingly relying on that appraisal to deny Plaintiffs a refinance loan and retaliating when Plaintiffs explained why the appraisal was discriminatory.

I know nothing about this market or the specifics of this case but after reading the document, which I encourage all of my appraiser readers to do, I seem to have more questions than answers.

Voice of Appraisal E256 Everyone Thinks We’re Crazy!

My friend Phil Crawford explains the insanity of industry right now in a way only Phil can deliver.

Real Estate Rumble Podcast: Andrew Turley, Appraiser & RAC Member Adds Clarity On What Happens Backstage

Andrew and I are members of RAC, an appraisal organization comprised of the best residential expertise in the industry. I’m writing this post from the annual RAC conference in Plano, Texas, an event I always look forward too. Andrew is a builder and real estate appraiser.

OFT (One Final Thought)

The followingi seems more practical than Extreme Wheelbarrowing!


Brilliant Idea #1

If you need something rock solid in your life (particularly on Friday afternoons) and someone forwarded this to you, or you think you already subscribed, sign up here for these weekly Housing Notes. And be sure to share with a friend or colleague if you enjoy them because:

  • They’ll do more extreme wheelbarreling;
  • You’ll stick with extreme ironing
  • And I’ll learn to fly without a license.

Brilliant Idea #2

You’re obviously full of insights and ideas as a reader of Housing Notes. I appreciate every email I receive, and it helps me craft the following week’s Housing Note.

See you next week.

Jonathan J. Miller, CRP, CRE, Member of RAC
President/CEO
Miller Samuel Inc.
Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants
Matrix Blog @jonathanmiller

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