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September 10, 2021

Dead Rats Provide Empirical Evidence That The NYC Housing Market Will Continue To Recover

You can now forget Pizza Rat [1] as a prognosticator of our NYC future…this is an amazing article.


But I digress…

The NYC Rental Market Remained Strong But Was Weakened By The Delta Variant

I’ve been writing the expanding Elliman Repot series [5] since 1994 for real estate firm Douglas Elliman [6]. While most of our research is released quarterly, our new signed contract and NYC rental reports are published monthly. This week’s August 2021 Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Queens Rental Report [7] showed a lot of volume as we have seen since the spring, but not as much as expected. As you can see below, August tends to be the highest month of the year for new leasing volume across all three markets as illustrated from these charts:

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Elliman Report: August 2021 Manhattan, Brooklyn & Queens Rentals [7]

Bloomberg [11] looked at the greater price growth of the market is found in the higher end, as illustrated by our comparison between doorman and non-doorman rentals, which roughly show a 50/50 market split in transactions. Interest in the NYC rental market results made it the 8th most read article [11] by the 350K Bloomberg Terminal subscribers.

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Here is the chart in 2 different color formats:

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And the drop in listing inventory as new lease signings remained high:

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There were lots of other good articles on the August rental market – refer to the links down at the bottom of these Housing Notes.

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MANHATTAN RENTAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

“New lease signings rose to their highest level for the month of August since at least 2008.”

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BROOKLYN RENTAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

“New lease signings climbed to their highest level for the month of August in at least thirteen years.”

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QUEENS RENTAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

[Northwest Region] “New lease signings surged to their second-highest level since 2008.”

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LA’s ‘The One’ $500 Million Price Tag Was Never Achieved (nor Likely Achievable)

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This CNBC video provided an early look at the project 4-5 years ago.


Now it looks like a sale will be attempted for a lot less [27]:

…the plan under the listing agreement had been to market the property for $288 million, but the ultimate listing price has not been set.


This seems to be more of a pricing issue. The U.S. market for super luxury properties seems to be just fine.

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Calculated Risk: Forbearance Will Not Lead to a Huge Wave of Foreclosures

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Calculated Risk [30] is always a tremendous voice of reason to check in on. His substack mailing list [31] is definitely worth signing up for too.

With house prices up sharply year-over-year … very few borrowers will have negative equity, and most seriously delinquent borrowers will be able to sell their house, as a last resort, and avoid foreclosure.

The Return To Work Venn Diagram Says It All


The Counselors of Real Estate Present: What’s Next for Real Estate and the Life Experience

As someone with the CRE designation, I was drawn to the organization because it always looks forward.

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[click on image to learn more, or register]

Lower Manhattan Transformed Towards A Residential Neighborhood After 9/11

The rub with lower Manhattan residential real estate development was that the sidewalks rolled up at 5pm during the week and there were few residential support services like grocery stores. Sure there were plenty of residential rental developments but that was part of the challenge, causing the area to have a transitory feel to it.

After 9/11 that focus changed as liberty bonds and other incentives to build were created and lower Manhattan saw some of the highest residential price growth rates on the island. While the conversion to more full-time residential occupancy continues to occur, it has already come a long way since 9/11.


Tomorrow Marks The Twentieth Anniversary of 9/11

I remember feeling a sense of relief on the fifth anniversary of 9/11 thinking, if NYC could just hang on for five years, it would be fine. And it thrived. Two decades have passed since the tragedy of 9/11 hit us hard. I get annoyed at short-sighted prognosticators back then, and just like those who spewed their SEO-savy garbage [35] now during this pandemic.

The 9/11 anniversary is one of those things in life (and in death) that I mark the calendar by, pausing to reflect and try to incorporate something into my daily life to honor and remember those who perished. Here are a few pictures.

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I have many random thoughts about that day so I’ll just let them pour out:

That’s enough commentary for now.

And here’s an amazing timeline from Visual Capitalist [45]. Click on the image to expand.

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Getting Graphic


My favorite charts of the week made by others

Appraiserville

(For earlier appraisal industry commentary, visit my old clunky REIC [49] site.)

RAC’s Annual Conference Is Here! Mastering Disasters

It’s a spectacular opportunity for appraisers to attend one of the best conferences for appraisers offered. Click on the image below to find out more!

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OFT (One Final Thought)

A reminder that most future insights don’t sound as good (or cool) as an accordian.


Brilliant Idea #1

If you need something rock solid in your life (particularly on Friday afternoons) and someone forwarded this to you, or you think you already subscribed, sign up here for these weekly Housing Notes [57]. And be sure to share with a friend or colleague if you enjoy them because:

Brilliant Idea #2

You’re obviously full of insights and ideas as a reader of Housing Notes. I appreciate every email I receive and it helps me craft the next week’s Housing Note.

See you next week.

Jonathan J. Miller, CRP, CRE, Member of RAC [58]
President/CEO
Miller Samuel Inc. [59]
Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants
Matrix Blog [60] @jonathanmiller [61]

Reads, Listens and Visuals I Enjoyed

My New Content, Research and Mentions

Recently Published Elliman Market Reports

9/11

Appraisal Related Reads

Extra Curricular Reads