Whats Modern Today May Not Be Housing Modernization
I’m attending the D.C. conference held by The Appraisal Foundation and have to keep Housing Notes very short this week. There are lots of great reads in the links below. But I will double down next week so rest up!
The future is here. I can see it clearly.
But I digress…
Market Report Gauntlet: Q3-2019, Greenwich Sales, Q3-2019 Fairfield County, Downtown Boston Sales
We published the Greenwich results for the third quarter and after a tough slog, with the aid of the sharp drop in mortgage rates, Greenwich shows stable market conditions and declining inventory. This was captured in a recent Bloomberg story that at one point on Thursday became the number one read story on the 350K Bloomberg Terminals worldwide. So there is that.
And a chart, which loyal Housing Notes readers know how much I love charts.
Here are some key points for Greenwich and the other markets:
GREENWICH SALES HIGHLIGHTS
Elliman Report: Greenwich Sales Q3-2019
“Listing inventory for single-family properties declined across the market.”
- Single-family sales and median sales price showed stability
- Single-family listing inventory slipped year over year after five quarters of gains
- Condo price trend indicators surged annually, consistent with a jump in sales size
- Luxury price trend indicators still jumped despite a significant decline in average sales size
- Luxury listing inventory fell year over year for the second straight quarter
FAIRFIELD COUNTY SALES HIGHLIGHTS
Elliman Report: Fairfield County Sales Q3-2019
“Sales saw modest year over year gains as listing inventory slipped.”
- All price trend indicators drifted lower year over year for the fourth straight quarter
- After five straight quarters of annual declines, sales increased over the last two quarters
- Listing inventory declined annually for the two most recent quarters
- Luxury listing inventory fell year over year for the second straight quarter after five increases
- Luxury marketing time and negotiability expanded as older supply began to clear the market
DOWNTOWN BOSTON SALES HIGHLIGHTS
Elliman Report: Downtown Boston Sales Q3-2019
“The pace of the market was brisk as supply remained limited.”
– Average price per square foot rose year over year to the second-highest level in nineteen years
– Median sales price rose year over year for the seventh time in eight quarters
– Despite the rapid market pace, listing inventory expanded annually for the sixth straight quarter
– Median sales price and number of sales rose year over year for the fourth straight quarter
– Listing inventory expanded annually for the second time in the past three quarters
– The pace of the market accelerated in three of the past four quarters
Market Report Gauntlet: Q3-2019 South Florida
More on the results next week, along with the new market areas. In the meantime, you can view the reports here.
Upcoming Speaking Events
I’ve got a bunch coming this fall, but here’s one.
(For earlier appraisal industry commentary, visit my old clunky REIC site.)
Talking Appraising in DC
I’m attending the TAF/IAC meeting in DC this week. Phil Crawford and I were honored to speak in front of the Network, a.k.a. an association of state appraiser coalitions who drive the grassroots efforts at the legislative level and actually get important work accomplished for boots-on-the-ground appraisers nationwide.
The Future of Bifurcation Per FHFA
Mark Calabria, Director of FHFA who regulates the GSEs, said at the American Enterprise Institute this week that their sole focus is to privatize the GSEs so they can leave receivership, 11 years after being bailed out.
Bifurcation and a slew of other initiatives for “modernization” are just pilot programs at this point and not the top priority of their FHFA regulator.
US Appraisals Goes AMP A Day Late And A Dollar Short
Here’s the corporate gobblygook of the US Appraisals press release.
Who believes or even reads this crap?
“Bifurcated appraisals are a part of the future of this industry,” said Rick Garrie, Chief Valuations Officer of United States Appraisals. “There is so much potential to improve both the speed and the accuracy of appraisals with this new approach. We are committed to being at the forefront of Appraisal Modernization.”
Remember that the majority meaning of the word “modernization” is pivoting to AVMs and away from appraisers performing traditional appraisals.
OFT (One Final Thought)
I write my Housing Notes on a Mac and have been insanely devoted to the insanely great product since 1986, using them to create and run our company.
Steve Jobs explaining search in 1988: pic.twitter.com/dbw71dtdPx— Jon Erlichman (@JonErlichman) October 13, 2019
Brilliant Idea #1
If you need something rock solid in your life (particularly on Friday afternoons) and someone forwarded this to you, or you think you already subscribed, sign up here for these weekly Housing Notes. And be sure to share with a friend or colleague if you enjoy them because:
- They’ll be more modern;
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- And I’ll look at charts.
Brilliant Idea #2
You’re obviously full of insights and ideas as a reader of Housing Notes. I appreciate every email I receive and it helps me craft the next week’s Housing Note.
See you next week.
Reads, Listens and Visuals I Enjoyed
- Would You Buy Serial Killer John Wayne Gacy's Property? [Register Citizen]
- Bankshot [American Banker]
- Bel-Air estate lists for the highest price in America: $225 million [LA Times]
- Secret Manhattan Condo Purchases Are Dead, Thanks to a Suburban Squabble [Wall Street Journal]
- Terra sells part of RealPlus stake to Corcoran and Elliman [The Real Deal]
- Douglas Elliman Knight Frank Luxury Investment Index.pdf [doctroid.net]
- New York Real Estate Scrambling to Understand New LLC Law [The Real Deal]
- What You Need to Know About Recent NYC Mansion Tax Changes [Elliman Insider]
- Beverly Hills' Billion-Dollar Fire Sale: Inside the Implosion of a Historic Hilltop Real Estate Deal [Hollywood Reporter]
- Sir James Dyson buys Singapore's 'biggest penthouse flat' [BBC]
- SpaceX gives South Texas homeowners more time to consider buyout offers [Dallas News]
My New Content, Research and Mentions
- Greenwich luxury-home discounts are winning over hesitant buyers [Crains NY]
- South Florida Q3 resi sales a mixed bag, with inventory falling, home foreclosures dropped nearly 20% in Q3: Daily digest [The Real Deal]
- Which U.S. Cities Take The Longest To Save For All-Cash Home Buys? [Forbes]
- South Florida Q3 resi sales a mixed bag, with inventory falling: Elliman [The Real Deal]
- Downtown Boston home prices jumped over the summer [Curbed Boston]
- Low Taxes Drive Up Luxury House Prices in South Florida [Mansion Global]
- A Luxury Condo in Boston Now Costs Over $1 Million More Than it Did Last Year [Mansion Global]
- Greenwich Luxury-Home Discounts Are Winning Over Hesitant Buyers [Bloomberg]
- It’s Now a Buyers’ Market in Manhattan Real Estate [The Entrepreneur Fund]
- Itamaraty mantém auxílios-moradia de até R$ 70 mil por mês [EPOCA]
- Em tempos de crise fiscal, Itamaraty mantém auxílios-moradia de até R$ 70 mil por mês [BBC]
- Manhattan's luxury lease prices soar [Business Times]
Recently Published Elliman Market Reports
- Elliman Report: Miami Coastal Mainland Sales 3Q 2019 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Miami Beach + Barrier Islands Sales 3Q 2019 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Fort Lauderdale Sales 3Q 2019 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Wellington Sales 3Q 2019 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Delray Beach Sales 3Q 2019 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Jupiter + Palm Beach Gardens Sales 3Q 2019 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Palm Beach Sales 3Q 2019 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Royal Palm/Boca Raton 3Q 2019 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Boca Raton 3Q 2019 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Greenwich Sales 3Q 2019 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Fairfield County Sales 3Q 2019 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Downtown Boston Sales 3Q 2019 [Miller Samuel]
Appraisal Related Reads
- United States Appraisals Launches Appraisal Modernization Program – A.M.P.
- The Penny…A Classic Example of Cost Not Equaling Value [Cleveland Appraisal Blog]
- Should The Agent Include These Areas In Square Footage? • Birmingham Appraisal Blog
- When sellers care too much about the Zestimate [Ryan Lundquist/Sacramento Appraisal Blog]
- BBG Acquires New Jersey Real Estate Appraisal Firm [GlobeSt]
- GSEs to Halt Hybrid Pilot Program? Rumors or Fact? [Jonathan Miller/Appraisers Blogs]
Extra Curricular Reads
- Tunnel vision: how an obsessed explorer found and lost the world's oldest subway [The Verge]
- How the Dutch Invented Elite Flyer Status Competition — With Figurines [NY Magazine]
- Five Reasons the Diet Soda Myth Won’t Die [NY Times]