Essential Businesses Keep The Housing Market Trucking
I had one of these bad boys growing up and they were indestructible.
Tonka v Elephant Commercial pic.twitter.com/GKHUCpXmnM— Ronnie T-Shirts (@ronnietshirts) March 24, 2020
But I digress…
Warning! This week is heavy into the real estate appraisal world – but you’re probably cooped up inside so even if you are not an appraiser, it still might be interesting to explore.
Randall Bell’s Bell Disaster Index Shows We Will Survive
Randall Bell is the guy you call for property valuation analysis when there is a catastrophic event in the U.S. He provides a fascinating perspective for the current situation in his Bell Disaster Index.
From My Matrix Blog: The Future of Real Estate (And Life) Is Happily Looking Remote
With many Americans living under self-quarantine, the future of housing and office space will experience radical change. Here are some random thoughts about life after coronavirusappoccalypse:
The Man-Bun will make a big comeback due to the inability to get a haircut
There will be so much toilet paper to appear on store shelves that it will take years to use it up and toilet paper production-related employment will be bleak
Consumers will not regret hoarding toilet paper but will refuse to admit it in public
With everyone frustrated about being housebound, they will plot and plan to buy or rent a larger home as soon as this crisis is over
Buy a new refrigerator after burning out the refrigeration unit with thousands of sustained door-opens
A surge in the stock prices of Jenny Craig and WW
Gyms will see a new revival (see ‘Jenny Craig’)
People will discover they actually like to walk every day to clear their mind
Many people will begin to use Zoom.us every day and discover they like to see their friends and relatives faces when chatting – even in HD
Universities will incorrectly believe that students will want to learn remotely when really all they want to do it party in the dorms
Employees will decide they hate the time wasted on the commute even more because it is not completely necessary
Americans will love sleeping in until 8:30 am permanently changing the 9-5 standard to 10-6
Podcast usage will become a bigger thing than it ever was (see ‘walk every day’)
People will rush to cut their cable service after enduring endless hours, watching mindless cable shows, for reasons they can’t explain, but did realize being permanently pissed off was exhausting and unnecessary
The difference between weekends and weekdays will suddenly be thrust back into our daily lives and we’ll hate it despite the dated conventional wisdom that we should keep our personal and business lives separate (see ‘walk every day’)
The divorce rate will skyrocket as couples actually discover their real partner in close quarters
Parents will completely shed their ‘put their kids on the couch to watch tv’ shame as they consider how many episodes of Gilligan’s Island they have watched
Commercial real estate will never be the same again as millions of employees worked remotely and companies realized it wasn’t that big a deal
There will be a new generation classification known as Baby Boom II beginning nine months from now – ok, boomer? (see ‘divorce’)
Uncomfortable chairs will no longer be tolerated as Herman Miller Aeron Chairs will be the only office chairs made worldwide
I’ve seen the future, and it is good. -Beavis & Butthead
Other insights welcomed.
Len Kiefer‘s Chart Handiwork
weekly jobless claims, a 30σ event pic.twitter.com/LEO7s5TXsH— ???? ???????????? ???????????????????????? ???? (@lenkiefer) March 26, 2020
(For earlier appraisal industry commentary, visit my old clunky REIC site.)
Appraisers in Quarantine
This meme is making the rounds. Truth!
Effective today, more VA appraisal orders will be exteriors
It’s a good sign to see institutions shift their orientation to exteriors considering the largess of the mortgage world.
Here is the announcement and scope of work:
GSE Regulator FHFA Announced Their Position On Exterior Inspections
After a massive agency effort to address the issue of appraisers performing in harm’s way, the FHFA issued temporary rules to address it during a rapidly ramped of crisis. Individuals like Danny Wiley, Scott Reuter, Lyle Radke and others made it all happen within the massive bureaucracy of the mortgage market whose underpinning is essential to the economic condition of the country. I know I complain a lot but their actions warrant a large thank you from the appraisal industry.
March 23, 2020: FHFA Directs Enterprises to Grant Flexibilities for Appraisal and Employment Verifications
Real estate appraisers are an essential business and here to protect the public trust
I hope all my readers (and everyone else) are staying safe and healthy during this crisis – now let’s get to business.
With New York State on lockdown, real estate brokers/agents can’t sell real estate right now because they are not considered an essential business (yet they are in nearby Connecticut!) This declaration determines whether you can or cannot remain in business during a crisis like this.
Are real estate appraisers considered an essential business in New York? Yes. They are in New York State and they are stated as such in the federal Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act of 1999. But the fact that real estate appraisers are an “essential business” is not consistent in the federal language, especially now when many states are, or will be going on lockdown.
My good friend and appraiser/regulator Pete Fontana and I wrote a letter nicknamed: Fontana/Miller Essential Letter of March 24, 2020. This letter combines the scattered references to address this issue in very specific terms using key language in the public record that illustrates the fact that appraisers are an “essential business” now and going forward.
This letter is the first to address this important issue. It was just sent to Congress, state officials, trade groups, agencies, and other groups related to our industry today and went viral industrywide. The feedback from these groups has been immediate and overwhelmingly encouraging and positive.
Please share the Fontana/Miller Essential Letter of March 24, 2020 with your colleagues in the industry, trade groups, state governments, on forums, and with anyone or in any place you think is relevant to our industry.
Real estate appraisers are an essential business in our country, always have been.
UPDATE – Pete Fontana sent our letter to the Governor of Montana who subsequently made sure that “appraisers as essential business language” were inserted in yesterday’s Stay at Home Directive See Pete’s highlight in the document.
In the following days, a number of trade groups wrote similar letters which is very encouraging.
NAR sent a joint trade association essential business letter on behalf of four institutions
Their letter is from the American Land Title Association, Mortgage Banker Association, National Association of Realtors and National Association of Home Builders.
They urged the implementation of stay-at-home orders to combat the coronavirus, and among other things, stating that appraisers are an essential business.
The Appraisal Institute, American Society of Appraisers and others sent a letter on appraisers as essential services
The American Society of Appraisers, American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers, Appraisal Institute, Massachusetts Board of Real Estate Appraisers and the National Association of Realtors sent a joint letter on the Designation of Real Estate Appraisals as Essential Services.
We urge remaining jurisdictions to classify real estate appraisal services as essential…
Peter Christensen rolled out a free webinar and materials for appraisers to manage risk in a COVID-29 world
Peter has always been the voice of risk management in our appraisal world through conference presentations and his website Valuation Legal. He is allowing me to share his in Appraiserville.
Take a look at his slides and presentation. His content is all very helpful to our community.
Appraiser Frank Gregoire Has More Monitors Than You Do
Ryan Lundquist shows us how to communicate the market in this crisis
Delivery: Factual, neutral, non-apologetic, empathy without bias.
The market has really changed over the past ten days and the lockdown had a huge effect this weekend. Here are some fresh stats and perspective. This video is about 20 minutes. I hope it helps. Any thoughts? https://t.co/LWShQucnnL— Ryan Lundquist (@SacAppraiser) March 24, 2020
XOME Issues Vendor Authorization Letter In Case Appraisers Get Arrested
Insiders tell me they are publishing a Dick Tracy Decoder Ring next week. Good grief. This suggests they are so desperate for appraisers to place themselves in harm’s way that a printer and a logo is all you need they need for protection. Do they have a legal department?
OFT (One Final Thought)
The cover of the NYT today followed by the business section cover showing all 50 states. First here is the mockup for the anticipated announcement – this is how I design each market report I create!
Brilliant Idea #1
If you need something rock solid in your life (particularly on Friday afternoons) and someone forwarded this to you, or you think you already subscribed, sign up here for these weekly Housing Notes. And be sure to share with a friend or colleague if you enjoy them because:
- They’ll be more essential;
- You’ll be more essential;
- And I’ll rest easy knowing U.S. real estate appraisers are considered essential businesses.
Brilliant Idea #2
You’re obviously full of insights and ideas as a reader of Housing Notes. I appreciate every email I receive and it helps me craft the next week’s Housing Note.
See you next week.
Jonathan J. Miller, CRP, CRE, Member of RAC
Miller Samuel Inc.
Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants
Matrix Blog @jonathanmiller
Reads, Listens and Visuals I Enjoyed
- The Housing Market Is in Lockdown
- Statement from C.A.R. 3.28 | Coronavirus
- Most residential realtors may be women, but inequality is still prevalent in the real estate industry
- New York Will Stop Most Construction Due to Coronavirus [The Real Deal]
- Economic Bailout Is Boon To Real Estate [The Real Deal]
- Should Security Deposits Be Applied To Rent? Creative Ways Cities Are Trying To Help Renters During Coronavirus [Forbes]
- Housing delivery may stall but market fundamentals will drive long-term performance [Knight Frank]
- Real Estate Brokers Adding Coronavirus Clauses to Contracts [The Real Deal]
- These Updating Charts Show The Record Number Of Americans Filing Unemployment Claims [Buzzfeed News]
- Real Estate’s Spring Sales Season Slows to a Trickle [NY Times]
- Real-Estate Agents Are Now Holding Virtual Showings and Live-Streaming Open Houses [Washingtonian]
- Weekly mortgage applications tank 29% as coronavirus sidelines homebuyers [CNBC]
- Survey of Renter Perception on Moving during COVID-19 Shows Optimism [Rent Cafe]
- Podcast: Kate Linebaugh discusses The Coronavirus Cash Crisis [Wall Street Journal]
- Selling Homes in the Age of Coronavirus [Wall Street Journal]
- Zillow Group Cuts Expenses, Cancels Revenue Guidance [The Real Deal]
My New Content, Research and Mentions
- MiB: Ben Cohen on Streaks – The Big Picture
- As Coronavirus Cases Grew, Some Wealthy Buyers Still Bought Multimillion Dollar Homes [Wall Street Journal]
- The Refinance Boom Could Be Bad News for Home Buyers This Spring—Here's Why [LMT Online]
- Worried about making rent? Read this before approaching your landlord [Brick Underground]
- As New York shut down, so did its residential market [Active Rain]
- As Coronavirus Cases Grew, Some Wealthy Buyers Still Bought Multi-Million Dollar Homes [Mansion Global]
- Nearly 450 New York Sellers Took Their Property Off The Market Last Week [The Real Deal]
- People still putting mansions on the market [Finance & Commerce]
- 3 Market Pros Weigh in on Post-Coronavirus Possibilities – What Happens When it's Over? [Cooperator]
- Miami Real Estate Market Muddled [Builder Online]
- Business as (Un)usual – Appraisals and Loan Processing in the COVID-19 Crisis [Cooperator]
- Lingering home listings will no longer show their age [Crains NY]
- How Is the Lending Industry Changing Amid COVID-19? [Forbes]
- Listings sites freeze ‘days on market’ counters, but will buyers behave any differently? [Brick Underground]
- Decision To Stop Market Clock Divides Resi Industry [The Real Deal]
- Fannie Mae And Freddie Mac Adopt “Alternative” Home Appraisals Due To Coronavirus [Forbes]
- New York’s Lingering Home Listings Will No Longer Show Their Age [Bloomberg]
- People Are Still Putting Their Mansions on the Market [Bloomberg]
Recently Published Elliman Market Reports
Appraisal Related Reads
- COVID-19 Novel Coronavirus – WALITT SOLUTIONS
- Temporary Appraisal Requirement Flexibilities – FHFA Allowing Alternatives [Dave Towne/Appraisers Blogs]
- Working with appraisers during a pandemic [Sacramento Appraisal Blog]
- How Will Covid-19 Impact the Atlanta Real Estate Market? [The Hank Miller Team]
- COVID-19 Disclaimers in Appraisal Reports [Jonathan Miller/Appraisers Blogs]
- March Newsletter- False Start, Pandemic [DW Slater Company]
- Directs Enterprises to Grant Flexibilities for Appraisal and Employment Verifications [FHFA]
- Appraisers Are Considered an Essential Business [ICAP/Appraisers Blogs]
- Coronavirus Update [Appraisal Institute]
- What Homeowners Can Do To Assist The Appraiser During The Coronavirus Pandemic [Tom Horn/Birmingham Appraisal Blog]
Extra Curricular Reads
- Toilet Paper Calculator
- In the U.S., Luxury Brands Board Up the Store
- The World Is Changing – So Can We – Reasons to be Cheerful
- Even Waffle House Is Closed for COVID-19 [Kottke.org]
- After a Japanese grade school cancels graduation, students hold it inside of Minecraft [boingboing.net]