The Fed Throws The Ceremonial First Housing Pitch
Ok, so the fed raised the federal funds rate by .75 but I really love this…
It was an honor to be joined by former U.S. Congresswoman, founder of @GiffordsCourage, and advocate Gabby Giffords.— Red Sox (@RedSox) June 16, 2022
Thank you, Congresswoman Giffords, for tirelessly fighting for gun violence awareness and safety. pic.twitter.com/W6KoEWUh8s
But I digress…
VIDEO EVENT Preparing For A Market Shift: Know Your Numbers
I had a great conversation with my friend Noah Rosenblatt of Urban Diggs, moderated by Eric Barron of The Agency. I hope you enjoy it. (TLDR: It’s already happened) Click the image to play.
Actually, The Rising Wage Trend Over A Decade Seems To Support The Record Manhattan Median Rent
Last week’s viral coverage of the monthly median record rent of $4,000 in our Elliman Report: May 2022 Manhattan Brooklyn & Queens Rentals
However I indexed our rental data against non-seasonally adjusted annual hourly wages and it would appear there is more room for rent gains based on wage growth, no?
Black Rock Goes All BF Goodrich On Us: “We’re The Other Guys”
I was a bit startled to see this Black Rock position piece essentially say they are not to be confused with “Blackstone” without actually saying “Blackstone.” Black Rock seems to be positioning itself for “Main Street” instead of “Wall Street” given the affordability crunch from the collapse of resale housing inventory, partly because Wall Street firms have been buying up homes in order to rent them.
Growing up I saw the Goodyear Blimp at lots of NFL games on TV and in many other forums.
And BF Goodrich, a competing tire maker, used the ubiquitous Goodyear Blimp in their “We’re The Other Guys” advertising effort. It’s almost as if Black Rock anticipates looming brand damage to the residential investment space and doesn’t want to be confused with Blackstone who is very active there.
But it’s weird to see Black Rock actually do this. And not because BF Goodrich built blimps for the U.S. Navy years ago.
These are the kind of BF Goodrich commercials I remember seeing as a kid.
Gotta love the Patridge Family and I’ll bet they weren’t renting their house from Black Rock!
Commuters Frequent Manhattan’s mid Business Districts On Wednesdays To Protect Long Weekends At Home
Wednesday seems to be the peak of weekly activity with Tuesdays and Thursdays coming in second place. Even the guy at coffee stand from whom I buy a bagel and coffee as I walk from Grand Central Terminal to my Midtown office told me he doesn’t bother to bring his stand to the city on Mondays and Fridays. I also observe this pattern on the commuter trains where the center of the week is packed and Mondays are empty. Yes, remote work is having a pronounced impact on business districts of which Manhattan’s office towers remain two-thirds empty.
I looked at how busy a steak restaurant was in its two locations by day of the week. I selected the FIDI (The Financial District of Manhattan) and Midtown (The Central Business District of Manhattan).
VIDEO EVENT West Palm Beach State Of The Market
I moderated a panel back on May 12th just after mortgage rates jumped and this was how I spoke about it. It was a live event in a beautiful venue in West Palm Beach. The panelists were incredibly informative and insightful. Fun stuff!
This Week in Aspirational Pricing: Malibu & Manalapan
I’ve been covering the Malibu housing market for Douglas Elliman for about eight years now and the change in the numbers in the pandemic has been extraordinary.
Elliman Report: Q1-2022 Malbu/Malibu Beach Sales.
Emma Stone’s Malibu Home Closes a Month After Hitting the Market [Wall Street Journal]
Decades After Larry Ellison Landed, These Kingpins Are Sending Malibu Real Estate Even Higher [Wall Street Journal]
And more recently, I’ve been covering Manalapan for Douglas Elliman, not far from Palm Beach.
Elliman Report: Q1-2022 Manalapan Sales.
A Billionaire Bought a Florida Home for $94.2 Million Last Year. Now He’s Selling It for Around $175 Million [Wall Street Journal]
My favorite charts of the week made by others
Upcoming Speaking Events
I am joining a panel on the New York housing market next week with all the people I respect that provide regular commentary on conditions. It should be fun and informative. Click on the image to register.
(For earlier appraisal industry commentary, visit my old clunky REIC site.)
Nothing this week as I’m currently headed to the midwest to visit family. Got lots to write about so hang in there because I plan to return to Appraiserville next week!
OFT (One Final Thought)
Harry Macklowe, a long time NYC developer, is just as well-known for his buildings as he is for getting into trouble. I tripped into his new One Wall Street Development intro clip which hasn’t gotten much buzz (the clip, not the building) since it appeared back in January. The funny details (like the lion swelling the fly in the intro) are completely unexpected. Good stuff.
Brilliant Idea #1
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Brilliant Idea #2
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See you next week.
Reads, Listens and Visuals I Enjoyed
- The New Geography of the Russian Elite [NY Times]
- Real Estate Billionaire Stephen Ross Says Recession Would Drive People Back to Office [Bloomberg]
- Americans Are Building Vacation-Home Empires With Easy-Money Loans [Bloomberg]
- Mortgage Surge Toward 6% Slams Brakes on Red-Hot Housing Market [Bloomberg]
- Fed Chair Powell: "Homebuyers need a bit of a reset" [Calculated Risk]
- Mortgage Rates [FreddieMac]
- Checking in With the Real-Estate Brokers Who Stormed the Capitol [Curbed]
- Compass Market Cap Drops Below Total Raised from Investors [The Real Deal]
- Fed Takes Aggressive Action in Inflation Fight: Live Updates [NY Times]
- Facts on BlackRock Buying Houses [BlackRock]
- Compass lays off 450, briefly halts trading on NYSE [Real Trends]
- Why the return to the office isn’t working [VOX]
- Inside the Dazzling "Red Room" at One Wall Street [Untapped New York]
- Compass, Redfin Lay Off Hundreds of Employees [The Real Deal]
- Less Parking Could Mean More Housing [Governing]
- Building Boomlet Added Nearly 200K Apartments — and Intensified Income Segregation [The City]
- Why Urban Life Suddenly Got Way More Expensive [The Atlantic]
- Not a ‘floating structure’ after all: County backs off taxing Star Island floating mansion [Miami Herald]
- A Hot Market Means Institutional Investors Are Buying up Almost Half North Texas Homes [CandysDirt.com]
- Rental Market Tracker: Typical U.S. Asking Rent Surpassed $2,000 for First Time in May [Redfin]
- What Does a Normal Housing Market Look Like? [A Wealth of Common Sense]
My New Content, Research and Mentions
- No Immunity for Luxury Sector From Biggest Interest Rate Increase for U.S. Since 1994 [Barron's]
- Manalapan Compound Poised to Sell for Florida-Record $175M [The Real Deal]
- Emma Stone’s Malibu Home Closes a Month After Hitting the Market [Wall Street Journal]
- Hamptons rentals take a hit as the rich flood luxury international hotspots [NY Post]
- No Immunity for Luxury Sector From Biggest Interest Rate Increase for U.S. Since 1994 [Mansion Global]
- Rent prices spike in Queens and citywide [Queens Chronicle]
- Decades After Larry Ellison Landed, These Kingpins Are Sending Malibu Real Estate Even Higher
- How to Buy a Home in a Brutal Housing Market [Mass News]
- A Billionaire Bought a Florida Home for $94.2 Million Last Year. Now He’s Selling It for Around $175 Million. [Wall Street Journal]
- Manhattan median rent hits new high of $4,000/month [Punch]
- How to Buy a Home in This Brutal Housing Market [Time]
- Median Rent in Manhattan Reaches a New High [Yahoo News]
- Average Rental Price in Manhattan Nears $5K For the First Time Ever [Commercial Observer]
- New Hotel-Branded Ultra-Luxe Condos Look To Redefine L.A. Market [The Real Deal]
- L.A. County signed contracts fall for 6th straight month in May [The Real Deal]
- Indoor pool, 10-bay garage, private beaches: 5 mega-mansions on the market [Newsday]
- Corey Shader Explains Why Luxury Real Estate Markets Are Hotter than Ever in South Florida [Digital Journal]
- Even Deep-Pocketed Buyers Are Starting to Back Away From the U.S. Housing Market [Wall Street Journal]
- Wohnen in New York: Bye-bye Manhattan [FAZ]
- Elliman Report: Median Rent in Manhattan Hits an All-Time High [Elliman Insider]
- The Last 12 Houses on Florida’s Fisher Island Are Up for Sale [Bloomberg]
- Somehow, the Rental Market Is Only Getting Worse [Curbed]
- Median rent in Manhattan hits $4,000/month for the first time [6sqft]
- These Are the Most Expensive Homes for Sale in All 50 States [Veranda]
- National Median Monthly Rent Hits $2,000 For First Time [The Real Deal]
- Even Deep-Pocketed Buyers Are Starting to Back Away From the U.S. Housing Market [Mansion Global]
Recently Published Elliman Market Reports
- Elliman Report: Manhattan, Brooklyn & Queens Rentals 5-2022 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Colorado New Signed Contracts 5-2022 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: California New Signed Contracts 5-2022 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Normandy Isles/Normandy Shores New Signed Contracts 5-2022 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Florida New Signed Contracts 5-2022 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: New York New Signed Contracts 5-2022 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Manhattan, Brooklyn & Queens Rentals 4-2022 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Colorado New Signed Contracts 4-2022 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: California New Signed Contracts 4-2022 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Normandy Isles/Normandy Shores New Signed Contracts 4-2022 [Miller Samuel]
Real Estate Blockchain
- How much COVID misinformation is on Facebook? Its execs don’t want to know [Ars Technica]
- Facebook’s Apps Went Down. The World Saw How Much It Runs on Them. [NY Times]
Appraisal Related Reads
- June Newsletter- Easing Off the Pedal [Mail Chimp]
- Officer Manager Charged With Embezzling Over $100,000 From Business [Patch]
- How to Create Your Dream Home Office Without Breaking the Bank [Cleveland Appraisal Blog]
- Buyers gaining power & farewell real estate honeymoon [Sacramento Appraisal Blog]
Extra Curricular Reads
- The 3-Day Return to Office Is, So Far, a Dud [Curbed]
- Decisive People Aren’t Better Decision-Makers [Bloomberg]
- Why Do the Men of SNL Live in Such Horrifying Apartments? [Curbed]
- Happy the Elephant Isn’t a Person, Top New York Court Rules [NY Times]