Housing Our Confusion About Taxes Until The Inventory Levee Breaks
Taxes explained. Listen closely.
January 15, 2022
But I digress…
Greenwich Is Unable To Satiate Housing Demand Because There Isn’t Enough To Sell
I’ve been the author of an expanding series of U.S. market reports for Douglas Elliman Real Estate since 1994. I began coverage of the Greenwich market in 2015 and I remember it being quite bloated with high-end listing inventory at the time. No more.
Bloomberg coverage of the Greenwich report Greenwich Home Sales Slide With Listings at Lowest on Record provided a chart (two different versions).
GREENWICH SALES HIGHLIGHTS
Elliman Report: Q4-2021 Greenwich Sales
“Listing inventory has fallen sharply enough to restrain sales.”
- Single family sales fell annually for the first time in two years but was well above the fourth-quarter decade average
- Single family price trend indicators continued to rise year over year collectively and remained well above the same period in 2019
- Condo listing inventory fell to the lowest level on record
- Luxury median sales price rose annually and more than fifty percent higher than pre-pandemic levels
- Luxury listing inventory fell to a new low for the fifth straight quarter
FAIRFIELD COUNTY SALES HIGHLIGHTS
Elliman Report: Q4-2021 Fairfield County Sales
“Listing inventory fell to a new low, making the pace of the market the fastest on record.”
- Fastest moving market in seventeen years of tracking as listing inventory fell to a record low
- Median sales price reached the third-highest on record and was sharply above 2019 levels
- While sales are well-above pre-pandemic levels, demand is being significantly restrained by low supply
- Single family price trend indicators remained sharply above the same period two years ago
- Single family listing inventory fell to the lowest on record, falling annually for the eleventh consecutive quarter
- Condo median sales price and average sales price rose annually to reach records
- Condo listing inventory fell to its lowest level in twenty-five years and the fastest pace on record
- Luxury listing inventory fell to a record low for the sixth straight quarter
- One out of three luxury sales closed above the last asking price, a proxy for bidding wars
Bloomberg TV: Explaining The Lack Of Supply In Greenwich, CT
I got a last-minute request by Bloomberg Quicktake to speak about the results of our Greenwich report for Douglas Elliman which shouted about the lack of supply. It’s a slightly longer and lighter format than the typical TV interview and it was fun to do.
[CBS New York TV] The Market Is Starved For Inventory
We published our Douglas Elliman Report for Westchester County Market and listing inventory has plummeted. I was interviewed about it by CBS New York TV.
Housing Article Title Of The Week: Inventory Vanishing and Bidding Wars Exploding in Crazy U.S. Housing Market
I’m a regular listener of Bloomberg’s Odd Lots Podcast and it was good to hear my friend Mike Simonsen of Altos Research – he provides a wealth of logic to dissect the insanity.
Gazumping & Bidding Wars broken down – shifting existing inventory to investment inventory:
And from Calculated Risk’s substack, a summary of Mike’s recent research:
The Wall Street Bonus Picture Is Off The Hook, Strong 2022 Outlook For NYC Housing Market
Wall Street has been printing money which is expected to add to the elevated demand.
Bank of America and Morgan Stanley bucked the trend at most of their rivals by reporting higher fourth-quarter profits. That propelled both firms to the highest annual earnings in their history, an achievement that other lenders can also make, despite not ending the year so bullishly.
Two Years Into The Financial Crisis, These People Needed A Moat (To Their Castle)
This was a highly entertaining thread that is not what you think.
The thing you need to understand about today's Zillow find is that it was built in 2010 in the United States of America. 1/ pic.twitter.com/Rd5JrrsVgr— Rebecca Makkai (@rebeccamakkai) January 14, 2022
CRE® Consulting Corps Presents Their Recommendations to Rebuilding Paradise
I am a member of The Counselors of Real Estate® which has a group known CRE® Consulting Corps. The latest effort by the Consulting Corps was to provide recommendations towards rebuilding the town in the short term. The Town of Paradise, CA was significantly damaged by the Camp Fire back in 2018. The Corp has approached the project with thoughtfulness, empathy, and pragmatism.
The rebuilding of a community following a major natural disaster provides a rare opportunity to reexamine and comprehensively address infrastructure, land use, environmental, and housing issues. Building a resilient and equitable community should be the paramount goal of any post-disaster recovery process—and the Town of Paradise has been proactive and ambitious in its post-disaster planning activities.
Download the Report: Rebuilding Paradise
My favorite charts of the week of our own making
My favorite charts of the week made by others
The following isn’t a chart but it is the best Substack sign-up EVER
Len Kiefer‘s Chart Handiwork
(For earlier appraisal industry commentary, visit my old clunky REIC site.)
The ASC Releases An Independent Study That Finds TAF To Be An Unconstitutional Mess
I plan to do a series of posts in the coming weeks to talk about the findings of this independent study. The ASC wisely reached out to fair housing experts to provide the analysis and layout of all the problems facing TAF. This is important since neither ASC or TAF (the latter is the author of the bat-shit crazy letter) are experts in fair housing matters. I believe this report is laying the groundwork for the anticipated PAVE Task Force report which is due very soon.
The top level takes from this report are:
- Addresses the bipartisan issue of “restraint of trade.” TAF’s management of USPAP infringes on commerce by taking money out of the consumer’s pocket by creating a shortage, causing fees to be much higher.
- Explains why the structure of TAF is an unconstitutional mess – Congress didn’t intend to create a not-for-profit with zero oversight.
- Provides a playbook for Congress to fix the problem.
In other words, a private organization should not be able to pre-empt state law. The real estate appraisal board of New Jersey is being sued right now for the same thing.
The WVAREA Grift Continues As They Scrub The “About Us” Names From The Website
That’s right appraisers. You can give your hard-earned money to an organization that doesn’t have an executive board or literally do anything for members except provide “personal” access to real estate appraisal board members, namely Dean Dawson. Keep reading…
A few weeks ago, I outed the West Virginia Association of Real Estate Appraisers for their grift of real estate appraisers by promising them “personal” access to state real estate appraisal board members and that was about all they really offered. The website had long been dormant except for the signing up and paying money part. After doing nothing for the past year, they were startled by the light being thrown in their direction and have just started to send weekly emails providing bill tracking reports even though every appraiser can do that research for free on their own.
There is no apparent reason any appraiser in West Virginia should be sending their hard-earned dollars to this organization because it has not demonstrated any value add for membership through their website. There are no events, and literally, no actions that have shown any work being accomplished for appraisers.
Their only known email sent before my post was one that asked for money.
And since my original post, they scrubbed Chairman Dean Dawson’s name and all other executive board members except for the executive director. He is the person sending those legislative updates that are freely available to all appraisers to obtain themselves. Wow. Does this mean there is no executive board anymore? And why would an appraiser send money to this organization if there is no executive board? It seems like the only value add is to have access to Dean Dawson? Isn’t that a blatant grift?
Here is a gift provided to me by one of our appraisers. I will drink from it proudly.
OFT (One Final Thought)
I’ve been listening to a lot of Blues/Jazz music from the 1920s of late and ran across this version of my favorite song by Led Zeppelin:
Led Zeppelin does song with a completely different interpretation from the original. It has always wowed me.
Brilliant Idea #1
If you need something rock solid in your life (particularly on Friday afternoons) and someone forwarded this to you, or you think you already subscribed, sign up here for these weekly Housing Notes. And be sure to share with a friend or colleague if you enjoy them because:
- They’ll pay more taxes;
- You’ll see less inventory;
- And I’ll keep on waiting until the the levee breaks.
Brilliant Idea #2
You’re obviously full of insights and ideas as a reader of Housing Notes. I appreciate every email I receive and it helps me craft the next week’s Housing Note.
See you next week.
Jonathan J. Miller, CRP, CRE, Member of RAC
Miller Samuel Inc.
Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants
Matrix Blog @jonathanmiller
Reads, Listens and Visuals I Enjoyed
- Lubbock’s Most Interesting House May Soon Be an Airbnb [Second Shelters]
- US Major Hotel Sales Survey for Q4 [GlobeSt]
- Will the US Workforce Ever Return to the Office? [Worldwide ERC]
- NYers doping pets, using doggie stunt doubles to get past co-op boards [NY Post]
- U.S. Mortgage Rates Surge for Fourth Week as Fed Eyes Hike [Bloomberg]
- Minimum wage increases and eviction risk [Science Direct]
- Housing policy lessons from the microchip shortage [Slowboring.com]
- Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 6.18 million in December [Calculated Risk]
- Housing-Market Risks in U.S. Are Clustered Around NYC, Chicago [Bloomberg]
- Something Has to Give in the Housing Market. Or Does It? [NY Times]
- Inventory Vanishing and Bidding Wars Exploding in Crazy U.S. Housing Market [Bloomberg]
- Perspective | More real estate trends to watch in 2022 [Washington Post]
- Billions In Office Loans At Risk Of Distress As Tenants Flee Older Buildings [Bisnow]
- A Progressive Real Estate Firm Faces Accusations of Discrimination [Bloomberg]
- 8 Surprising Lessons a Real Estate Editor Learned Buying Her First House [Realtor]
- Will Higher Mortgage Rates Derail the Housing Market? [A Wealth of Common Sense]
- As Florida home prices spike, middle-class residents wonder if they can afford to stay [Washington Post]
- Then and Now Photos: Staying Put In The Same One Bedroom for 60 Years: [Curbed]
My New Content, Research and Mentions
- Nassau assessments frozen for second year in a row [Newsday]
- Real estate’s rebound examined in HGAR event [Westfair Communications]
- Boston's Available Condo Inventory 'Collapsed' In December, Pushing Prices Up [Bisnow]
- US broke real estate records in 2021. Here’s where Connecticut stands. [Shelton Herald]
- US broke real estate records in 2021. Here’s where Connecticut stands. [The Hour]
- US broke real estate records in 2021. Here’s where Connecticut stands. [News Times]
- US broke real estate records in 2021. Here’s where Connecticut stands. [Middletown Press]
- US broke real estate records in 2021. Here’s where Connecticut stands. [Wilton Bulletin]
- US broke real estate records in 2021. Here’s where Connecticut stands. [Darien Times]
- US broke real estate records in 2021. Here’s where Connecticut stands. [Stamford Advocate]
- US broke real estate records in 2021. Here’s where Connecticut stands. [Greenwich Time]
- US broke real estate records in 2021. Here’s where Connecticut stands. [CT Insider]
- New York's Housing Market on Track for Robust Growth After 'Record-Breaking Year' [Salamanca Press]
- Sales of Existing U.S Homes Drop for First Time in Four Months [Bloomberg]
- Record Housing Sales Surge Amid the Pandemic [Bloomberg Quicktake]
- Business News Today: Share Market News, Latest Economy & Finance News [Bloomberg Quint]
- South Florida Supply Slump Continues in Q4 2021: Elliman [The Real Deal]
- Property Values in Palm Beach, Florida, Soaring Amid Low Inventory [Mansion Global]
- Greenwich Home Sales Slide With Listings at Lowest on Record [Bloomberg]
- Home Sale Prices Skyrocketing In Boca Raton, Delray Beach [Boca News Now]
- NYers lament housing moratorium. So, what happens now? [New York Amsterdam News]
- Manhattan Rents Hit a Record in December. Will That Streak Continue? [The Motley Fool]
- How prime real estate withstood the global pandemic [RICS]
Recently Published Elliman Market Reports
- Elliman Report: Fairfield County Sales 4Q 2021 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Greenwich Sales 4Q 2021 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Downtown Boston Sales 4Q 2021 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Riverdale Sales 4Q 2021 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Queens Sales 4Q 2021 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Brooklyn Sales 4Q 2021 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Northwest Queens Sales 4Q 2021 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Westchester Sales 4Q 2021 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Putnam & Dutchess Sales 4Q 2021 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Manhattan, Brooklyn & Queens Rentals 12-2021 [Miller Samuel]
Appraisal Related Reads
- Desktop appraisal option to start in March – HousingWire
- 'Deep structural issues': New report calls for appraisal industry reform, blasts lack of diversity [ABC 7 News]
- After concerns of racism in home appraisals, what will it take to fix the $156 billion racial housing gap? [SF Chronicle]
- "I don't want to say we're archaic": Appraisal Institute president vows reform [HousingWire]
- Skepticism Can Lead to Poor Decisions [Cleveland Appraisal Blog]
- Agents, Are You Using Tainted Sales In Your CMA's? [Tom Horn/Birmingham Appraisal Blog]
Extra Curricular Reads
- 2021 Atlantic hurricane season [Wikipedia]
- The beauty queen who beat a military dictatorship & made football history [BBC]
- An old Virginia plantation, a new owner and a family legacy unveiled [Washington Post]
- Is Old Music Killing New Music? [Ted Gioia]
- Colin Jost and Pete Davidson Bought a Staten Island Ferry [Vulture]
- Even the new Girl Scout cookie is having supply-chain issues — but it’s worth tracking down [Washington Post]
- The Infamous FBI Informant Behind a 20-Fatality Limo Crash [NY Magazine]
- XXX-Files: Who Torched the Pornhub Palace? [Vanity Fair]