The Housing Blizzard Of 2023
I’m thankful that 2022 is nearly over, and it clearly went out with a bang.
48 hour timelapse of Blizzard in 60 seconds. pic.twitter.com/tPjrUFnmzR— Weird and Terrifying (@weirdterrifying) December 29, 2022
After viewing the blizzard, try to make sense of this:
The cubes aren’t moving at all. The motion is all in your head. What. The. 🤯 pic.twitter.com/u8KbTH7KDJ— Steve Stewart-Williams (@SteveStuWill) December 26, 2022
But I digress…
Thanks To All My Readers Of Housing Notes
It’s been a busy year to chronicle and work through. This final Housing Note of 2022 was written from a hotel in suburban Detroit, surrounded by empty parking spaces and adjacent to a nearly bankrupt mall full of elderly people walking briskly, determined to beat last week’s lap time. I’ve been visiting my wife’s family this week, all wonderful people, and I’ve been gearing up for next week’s market report releases.
On a personal/business note…
- We sold our house, moving out of a town I’ve lived in for 32 years just as the fed unleashed a series of rate hikes.
- We lost a 6-way bidding war for a renovated barn with a 2-story peace sign but won a 30-way bidding war for the house of our dreams built before the American Revolution.
- My one-hour commute was extended by 30 minutes but offset by commuting only two days a week.
- We took a 3-week vacation for the first time in our adult lives.
- We extended the lease on our office, the home to Miller Samuel for the last 19 years, for another decade, coming with a total gut rehab.
On a housing market note…
- We’ll be analyzing more U.S. housing markets in 2023
- I will continue bringing transparency to the table, along with many new charts.
- We are rolling out some new content offerings on our website that are long overdue.
I very much appreciate our loyal and expanding audience that waits for that 2pm every Friday email for the past seven and a half years!
Happy New Year!
My favorite housing market & economy relate charts of the week made by others
1915-1940: Urban Real Estate Prices— New Low Observer (@NewLowObserver) November 11, 2022
Pandemic Rise & Decline of real estate
From a historical standpoint, we expect a reversal in the stock market before real estate. If true, then watch for the low in the stock market to be followed by a low in real estate 4-6 months later. https://t.co/sJJBOA8IaF pic.twitter.com/kM1M2fc3Z8
My favorite random charts of the week made by others
(For earlier appraisal industry commentary, visit my old clunky REIC site.)
I very much appreciate all my loyal readers of Appraiserville, especially those who have helped influence positive changes in the appraisal industry. It’s quite a list, and you know who you are.
I hope all of those lost FOJs will embrace leaving the cult and returning AI to its rightful place of true industry leadership or leave the organization. Please. There is much work to do.
The year 2023 is expected to see the parallel demise of the FODs and converting TAF to an organization that begins to focus on its responsibility of protecting the public trust and being in sync with reality rather than based on a handful of sycophants to carry water for Bunton. Remember that TAF is the organization that wrote the bat-shit crazy letter, the chickenshit letter and is the subject of an active investigation by HUD on whether USPAP promotes a lack of diversity in the appraisal profession (BLS: 97.7% of appraisers are white)
I’m optimistic there will be notable changes to TAF for the good in 2023. C’mon HUD!
I’ve long said that the residential appraisal industry is a pack of lone wolves who work hard and are the very definition of entrepreneurs. Thank you for your efforts to get this industry back on track and remove all the infighting largely caused by two individuals.
One down, one to go.
Happy New Year!
OFT (One Final Thought)
Brilliant Idea #1
If you need something rock solid in your life (particularly on Friday afternoons) and someone forwarded this to you, or you think you already subscribed, sign up here for these weekly Housing Notes. And be sure to share with a friend or colleague if you enjoy them because:
- They’ll be in a blizzard;
- You’ll make a snowman;
- And I’ll scream at the top of my lungs.
Brilliant Idea #2
You’re obviously full of insights and ideas as a reader of Housing Notes. I appreciate every email I receive, and it helps me craft the following week’s Housing Note.
See you next week.
Jonathan J. Miller, CRE, Member of RAC
Miller Samuel Inc.
Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants
Matrix Blog @jonathanmiller
Reads, Listens and Visuals I Enjoyed
- Patriots owner Robert Kraft behind $23.75M record-setting condo purchase in Palm Beach [Shiny Sheet]
- Big deals? Palm Beach had ’em in 2022, with 15 real estate sales topping $39 million [Shiny Sheet]
- 'SALT' cap foes poised to influence House GOP tax agenda [Roll Call]
- Remote Work Is Poised to Devastate America’s Cities [NY Mag]
- Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.8% Below Peak [Calculated Risk]
- Real Estate Agents Play Heroic in These Scripted TV Shows [The Real Deal]
- 'This makes my brain hurt': Connecticut used disaster aid to rebuild million-dollar homes [Politico]
- Hong Kong’s Tiniest Apartments Take Biggest Hit in Housing Slump [Bloomberg]
- Disentangling rent index differences [Cleveland Fed]
My New Content, Research and Mentions
- Some of the Wildest, Record-Smashing Trophy Home Sales of 2022 [Mansion Global]
- Patriots Owner Robert Kraft Buys Palm Beach Penthouse for $23.75 Million [Wall Street Journal]
- Patriots Owner Robert Kraft Buys Palm Beach Penthouse for $23.75 Million [Mansion Global]
- New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft buys $23.75M penthouse [Daily Mail]
- Slower inflation, lower home prices, pot sales and a Nassau casino? What 2023 holds for the Long Island economy [Newsday]
- This area is predicted to be NYC’s hottest neighborhood in 2023 [NY Post]
Recently Published Elliman Market Reports
- Elliman Report: Manhattan, Brooklyn & Queens Rentals 11-2022 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Colorado New Signed Contracts 11-2022 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: California New Signed Contracts 11-2022 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Normandy Isles/Normandy Shores New Signed Contracts 11-2022 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Florida New Signed Contracts 11-2022 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: New York New Signed Contracts 11-2022 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Manhattan, Brooklyn & Queens Rentals 10-2022 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Colorado New Signed Contracts 10-2022 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: California New Signed Contracts 10-2022 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Normandy Isles/Normandy Shores New Signed Contracts 10-2022 [Miller Samuel]
Appraisal Related Reads
- Do You Have A Tech-Savvy Appraiser? [Birmingham Appraisal Blog]
- Surprising Things That Can Decrease Property Value [Cleveland Appraisal Blog]
Extra Curricular Reads
- The New York Bakery Where Frank Sinatra Liked to Buy Pastries [NY Times]
- The Pandemic Drinking Binge Just Keeps Going [Bloomberg]
- Opinion | Why I finally gave away our air hockey table [Washington Post]
- Grade Inflation: What Goes Up Must Come Down | Opinion [The Harvard Crimson]