A Winter Housing Analysis Without Compromising The Incremental Lack Of Flow In Argumentation
This week I wrapped up our 30+ market report gauntlet for the first quarter of 2018 – more on that down the page. In my 24 years of writing this research, I have always worried I am making basic market condition descriptions sound too complex. While I’m not interested in riding a custom chopper in Orange County, somehow this meme spoke to me.
But I digress…
Market Report Gauntlet Q1-2018 Week 4: Long Island, North Fork & Hamptons
Douglas Elliman just published the last of the first quarter 2018 market research gauntlet. As I’ve said before in these Housing Notes, these reports are part of a growing series of research I’ve authored since 1994. I’ve got an exciting new market to add to the report series very soon.
Hamptons report coverage on Bloomberg Television
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But first, lets get down to business. Charts on the Hamptons and Long Island markets from our reports. These three versions of the same charts show how luxury Hamptons listings have begun to rise after spiking in 1Q 2014:
And Newsday’s article of the Long Island report made the cover of the paper.
Market Report Gauntlet Q1-2018 Week 4: Aspen/Snowmass Village, Los Angeles, Venice/Mar Vista, Malibu/Malibu Beach
Linking Social Media To Property Addresses?
This was just shared with me – a Corelogic software package add-on for MLS systems that connects social media accounts with property addresses (1:50 into video). Seems like a potential safety issue if misused, no?
This Week in Aspirational Pricing
A 10,000± condo triplex (3 stories, not 3 units, for you non-New Yorkers), just sold in the Manhattan neighborhood of Chelsea, at The Getty according to Forbes.
According to my calculations, that’s only 19th highest closed sale in Manhattan history. The current record price of $100,471,452 paid by Michael Dell for the Penthouse at One57, holds the record but there are at least two other contracts higher than that. Who knows, perhaps this recent Chelsea sale will be the 21st most expensive sale in 2018 eventually.
By the way, this building is located on The Highline, a restored elevated train line turned into a park which is the number one tourist destination and has essentially redefined the Chelsea neighborhood by providing an anchor that has attracted residential development.
New York City Video from…
1993: You know you’re old when you were living in NYC during the “vintage” recording of this video. I’m not a native New Yorker but I moved there in 1985.
1911: Nope, I definitely didn’t live in NYC then or anywhere, but it was the year Douglas Elliman was founded. This streetscape video is simply mesmerizing, especially when you consider every man woman and child you see is no longer with us.
Robert Stern is Taking Over Manhattan, And That’s a Good Thing
One of the most notable starchitects of the past 20 years has been Robert Stern. His most famous development and what I believe is the best condominium in Manhattan is 15 Central Park West. Bloomberg does a thought piece: Why Copies of 15 Central Park West Are Taking Over Manhattan on whether the popularity of his design – there are a number of new condos rising with his famous design.
And Miller says Manhattan isn’t even close to saturated with Stern condos. Unlike buildings by other starchitects such as Frank Gehry or Jean Nouvel, which are often meant to stand out with striking designs, 15 CPW and its ilk are meant to blend in. And that’s why Stern is building more of them than his peers. “The genre of [starchitecture] is defined by creating something unique,” he says. “The multiple versions of 15 Central Park West are a conservative version of something new.”
Phil Crawford Provides Updates on Appraiser Fest!
Listen to the podcast (you should be anyway!)
ASA leads opposition to TriStar Bank waiver request
That’s the headline from Valuation Review. Looks like ASA has better PR than AI National these days.
JUST IN The controversial @TriStarBank request to waive #appraisals is denied! (Source: @ErnieDurbin from the hearing room). Their misleading statements about an appraisal shortage in TN was not accepted. Incidentally, why would a bank have their twitter account locked? pic.twitter.com/nNcfcvZDvl— Jonathan Miller (@jonathanmiller) April 23, 2018
Brilliant Idea #1
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Brilliant Idea #2
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See you next week.
Reads, Listens and Visuals I Enjoyed
- Mapping million pound markets [Knight Frank]
- Welcome to Remine! [remine]
- Soho Penthouse in Renzo Piano-Designed Building Seeks $40.5 Million [Wall Street Journal]
- How Housing Inequality Fuels Economic Inequality [Citylab]
- Rising Sea Levels Reshape Miami’s Housing Market [Wall Street Journal]
- NYC has lots of empty stores. Why can't people live in them? [Brick Underground]
- The agent that luxury rental landlords cannot live without [The Real Deal NY]
- ‘My Generation Is Never Going to Have That’ [Politico]
- Why High-Flying U.S. Home Prices Seen Getting Another Jolt [Bloomberg]
- Compass in talks for Town's Flatiron flagship [The Real Deal]
- Manhattan's Land Is Worth Roughly As Much As Canada's GDP [City Lab]
- Vancouver’s empty-homes tax to rake in $30-million in first year; many properties exempted – [The Globe and Mail]
- How to beat the NIMBYs without handing over cities to developers [The Week]
- U.S. Existing-Home Sales Rose in March [Wall Street Journal]
- 50 years after Fair Housing Act, New York City still struggles with residential segregation [Politico]
- Town Residential shutting down sale, leasing business [The Real Deal]
- To buy or to rent: The great homeownership debate [Curbed]
- Raw data: The price of housing in America [Mother Jones]
- Developers ask record $40M for Fisher Island penthouse [The Real Deal Miami]
- The Latest Climate Threat for Coastal Cities: More Rich People [Bloomberg]
- A New Tax Break for Poor Neighborhoods Could Benefit Luxury Developers [Bloomberg]
- Kushner Companies offers $250M for Park Ave. co-op [NY Post]
- The Manor in Holmby Hills is back on top at $200 million [LA Times]
- A Decade After The Bubble Burst, House Flipping Is On The Rise [NPR]
My New Content, Research and Mentions
- Average sale price of an Aspen home approaches $5 million (Photos) [Denver Business Journal]
- Historically affordable Hamptons hamlet gets pricier [NY Post]
- Malibu Beach home sales quadruple in Q1: report [The Real Deal Miami]
- Median sales prices up again in Fairfield County's housing market [Westfair Online]
- NW Qns. hits landlord concession record [Queens Chronicle]
- Aspen Sees Soaring Property Prices [Mansion Global]
- Malibu Real Estate Market Spikes [Mansion Global]
- Real Estate Pros Encouraged By Hamptons 1st Quarter Reports [Hamptons.com]
- The Hamptons See Higher Luxury Prices, but Fewer Sales [Mansion Global]
- Home prices on Long Island [Newsday]
- Luxury Hamptons estates seeing deep price cuts [Newsday]
- Hot real estate market: LIers are rushing to close deals [Newsday]
- Hamptons Luxury-Home Buildup Fuels Discounts [Bloomberg]
- What to know if you're looking to buy a place in Forest Hills [Brick Underground]
- Prices in the Hamptons remain flat, despite gains in the luxury market [The Real Deal]
- Hamptons Home Shoppers Want Luxury, But They Also Want Discounts [Bloomberg]
- South Florida real estate off to good start in first quarter [Palm Beach Florida Weekly]
- Why Copies of 15 Central Park West Are Taking Over Manhattan [Bloomberg]
- Connecticut is going after hedge funds for more money to fill its budget gap [CNBC]
- Commitment issues: How apartment buyers are playing the field with multiple bids [Brick Underground]
- NYC Developer Gets Loan for Condo Project in Glutted Miami Area [Bloomberg]
- Greenwich: the rich town on the frontline of US hedge fund fight [Financial Times]
- How small can you go? These new Miami apartments want you to downsize and live large [Miami Herald]
- The LIRR and Long Island Real Estate [Long Island Pulse Magazine]
- Penthouse on a Private Island in Florida Asks $40 Million [Wall Street Journal]
- Miami home prices are feeling the impact of sea level rise, new research suggests [The Real Deal]
Recently Published Elliman Market Reports
- Elliman Report: Q1-2018 Aspen Sales
- Elliman Report: Q1-2018 Malibu / Malibu Beach Sales
- Elliman Report: Q1-2018 Venice / Mar Vista Sales
- Elliman Report: Q1-2018 Greater Los Angeles Sales
- Elliman Report: Q1-2018 North Fork Sales
- Elliman Report: Q1-2018 Hamptons Sales
- Elliman Report: Q1-2018 Long Island Sales
Real Estate Blockchain Reads
- Revolutionizing Real Estate with Blockchain [CIO Review]
- Bank of China HK Uses Blockchain for 85% of Real Estate Valuations – [Cryptovest]
Appraisal Related Reads
- Do I Need a Pre-Purchase Appraisal? [Birmingham Appraisal Blog]
- Birmingham First Quarter Sales & The Housing Shortage [Birmingham Appraisal Blog]
- Will it be an appraisal issue if there is pot growing at a house? [Sacramento Appraisal Blog]
- FHFA Working Paper Credibility Questioned by AGA – [AppraisersBlogs]
- HELP WANTED
- Lay groundwork for better home value with artful landscaping, but don't depend on it [Nerd Wallet]
- How to edit your home information in Zillow • [Birmingham Appraisal Blog]
Extra Curricular Reads
- “Architecture fiction” is the design world’s clickbait [Quartzy]
- Jonathan Richman: I, Jonathan Album Review [Pitchfork]