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We Still Don’t Know What We Don't Know Since The Tariffs Are Not An Economic Strategy Tariffs Are Inflationary Because They Are A Tax On The American Consumer This Ship Has Sailed: Shift To Manufacturing As US Economic Driver Every day, I endeavor to write about the nuances of the housing market. However, with the tariff tantrums coming out of Washington, DC, on an hourly basis, it is the only...
When Consumers Are Confused About The Economy, They Pause The Tariff Damage To Economy May Not Bring Down Rates If Inflation Surges The Odds Of A Recession Are Now At 60%, Up From 40% A Few Days Ago Wow. What a bizarre news cycle. This note will probably sound more like a rant than a measured discussion because that would be impossible for me. There is no apparent cohesive strategy for the...
Manhattan Sales Are Back To Long Term Norms Manhattan Prices Are Up, With Greater Gains At The HighEnd Even In A Market Dominated By Cash, The Rate Of Financed Sales Gains 2X Cash I’ve told this story before, but please indulge me. In early 2023, several reporters asked me how the Manhattan housing market would look. My description? “The Year of Disappointment.” (Hey, I’m not a marketing guy). A...
Goldman Sachs Now Sees Three Fed Cuts Later This Year Recession Odds Are Rising Quite A Bit In Back Half Of Year Mortgage Rates Could Slide More As Economy Receives Blunt Force Tariff Trauma As I’ve mentioned here before, tariffs are inflationary, and that’s not a political statement. However, you can see in the chart below that the use of tariffs is significantly higher in Trump II than in Trump...
US Monthly Signed Contract Increased Year Over Year The Midwest, Savaged By The Polar Vortex In January, Fought Back In February NAR Seems To Have A Supercharged Spellchecker Although still weak, more contracts were signed in February than the month before after adjusting for seasonality. In the NAR Pending Home Sales press release, it said "Pending home sales in February augmented 2.0%.” This...
Wall Street Profits And Average Bonus Per Employee Comp Reached New Highs NYC Remains A Key Driver Of Higher End Housing Demand Wall Street Comp In NYC Is Almost 5X The Private Sector The New York State Comptroller released their annual report on Wall Street profits and average bonus compensation for 2024. It showed the sector made a lot of money [gift link], the most on record in terms of...
The GSEs May Be Sold To Help Pay For A Tax Cut For The Wealthy Housing Is Local But Mortgage Rates Are National Privatizing The GSEs Supposedly Determine Whether Doing So Will Raise Rates One of the housing related promises coming out of Washington D.C. has been to privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (governmentsponsored entities/GSEs), often described by my peers as a couple of big dumb banks...
Canadian Housing Prices Have Increased 3X US Housing Prices Over The Decade Canadian Mortgages Tend To Have Adjustable Rates, Making Consumers More Vulnerable To Inflation The Canadian Government Tracks Housing Prices, Only New Construction Tracked In US My mom was born in Montreal, and she immigrated to Connecticut when she was 13, so I've always felt an affinity towards Canada. When the...
Law School Enrollment Surging A Reliable Indicator Of Rapid Economic Deterioration Consumers Think The Economy Is Breaking Quickly Trade War SaberRattling Is Tanking The Economy Before you judge me, hold on a second! The economy is weakening rapidly, and layoffs are surging as the US pushes trade wars against all our longterm allies. Then I thought about one of my dad’s favorite sayings from a...
NYC Rentals Are Setting New Price Records As Mortgage Rates Remain Stuck Manhattan Is Not A Leading Indicator For The US Housing Market Multifamily Sales Are Expected To Go Big In 2025 Back in college, I remember reading a story about the first lead singer for Van Halen getting into a bar fight, saying his adversary’s problem was “more dental than mental.” I applied the literary flex to today's...
The post Manhattan Market Share Of Cash v. Financed Sales first appeared on Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants. [...]
